Thread by @Marcus_How89

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* With the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) polling in first place ahead of parliamentary elections on 29 September, its leader, Herbert Kickl, draws ever closer to realising his dream of becoming “Volkskanzler.” But who is Kickl? 1/27

It’s worth pointing out that, despite having been active in Austrian politics for a 1/4 century, relatively little is known about Kickl, who is very private. Recently, @profilonline journalists @bauer_gernot and @RobTreichler published a book that unearthed new material. 2/

Kickl is the child of a working-class family from Carinthia, one of Austria’s poorer provinces. Traditionally a bastion of the Social Democrats (SPÖ), it is the cradle of modern populism, which fed on festering post-1918 nativist sentiments towards the Slovene minority. 3/

These would later be capitalised upon by Jörg Haider, who hijacked the leadership of the FPÖ in 1986 and steered it in the direction of revisionist, nationalist and anti-establishment populism. Kickl encountered Haider as a student and was impressed by his charisma. 4/

Kickl is (literally) a child of 1968, born into a growing wave of liberalism and social reform that enabled his attendance of a newly built Gymnasium, from whence he received stipends to study at university. He is a poster child for social mobility in Austria. 5/

Kickl attended the University of Vienna, where he ultimately studied philosophy, finding him home in the obscure corner of “right Hegelian” thinking. He did not graduate because he found a job with the FPÖ, but he later said the dialectic is a cornerstone of his worldview. 6/

Initially, Kickl worked at the Freedom Academy, the FPÖ’s think tank, but also proved himself a scribe adept at sharp-tongued wordplay – and thus became Haider’s speechwriter, providing the consummate actor with a script full of fiercely provocative phrasing. 7/

Yet Kickl, along with many of his colleagues, grew disillusioned with Haider after the FPÖ formed its (at the time) unprecedented coalition with the People’s Party (ÖVP) in the 2000s, preceding in its electoral implosion. In 2005, Haider left the FPÖ to form a new party. 8/

Kickl remained with the rump of the FPÖ, which by this point had shed most of its classical liberals and yuppie libertarians to be left to the faction dominated by hard-drinkers from far-right university fraternities, in whose ranks the ascetic Kickl stood out. 9/

Nonetheless, Kickl became the consigliere of the new leader, Heinz-Christian Strache. Like Haider, who died in a car crash in 2008, Strache was first and foremost a performer and opportunist. After the 2017 election, he led the FPÖ back into government with the ÖVP. 10/

Kickl served as interior minister during this time, gaining notoriety for trying to dismantle ÖVP networks within the intelligence agency (BVT). The credibility of the BVT was left in tatters, resulting in Western partners ending intelligence sharing over security concerns. 11/

After Strache’s career ended in disgrace over the Ibiza scandal, the ÖVP under Sebastian Kurz used the opportunity to force the resignation of Kickl, who in turn collapsed the coalition. The FPÖ crashed in the ensuing snap elections, with the ÖVP partnering with the Greens. 12/

In 2021, Kickl formally assumed the leadership of the FPÖ. He shifted the party even further to the right, leaning into the universe of alternative facts in which conspiracy and anti-science are king, while openly associating with neo-Nazi groups. 13/

That seemed like electoral suicide at the time, but in consolidating the far-right constituency, Kickl had a foundation on which to build once voters disaffected by the failure of the Kurz Experiment and the political class more generally started to curse all houses. 14/

He also centralised control of the party, relying on a narrow inner circle of confidants. This was the case under Strache, but Kickl is even more closed in his leadership style, with many erstwhile influencers being left out in the cold. 15/

None of the parties officially want to partner with the FPÖ while Kickl is leader, or at least not if he's chancellor. ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer calls him a “security risk.” Europe Minister Karoline Edtstadler, who worked with him in 2018-2019, says he is “terrifying.” 16/

Meanwhile, SPÖ leader Andi Babler, when asked in a debate to say something good about his opponent, instead told Kickl that “I consider you immensely dangerous for our county, and I say that to your face as a father and democrat.” 17/

Yet the focus of the rival parties on Kickl misreads the FPÖ and its constituency. Over the past decade, it has undergone a metamorphosis, with the role of Kickl being to merely know to how to drum the Blechtrommel. 18/

Much of the party membership and core constituency has descended into paranoia about the deep state and its globalist agenda. No conspiracy is too far-fetched. This marries with the structural openness of much of Austrian society to ’68 era heterodox thinking. 19/

Kickl, partly out of opportunism, partly out of genuine conviction, has willingly jumped down that particular warren and declared himself its saviour. His single-minded zeal sets him apart from his illiberal peers in Europe, who are mostly power politicians. 20/

An example: Kickl often speaks of “Herr Gott,” playing to the gallery of Catholic conservativism in Austria, but has been openly hostile to the Catholic Church in the country, effectively rejecting an institution he regards as being soft on social issues. 21/

And so, where Haider and Strache sought dialogue (i.e. confrontation) to gain attention, courting tabloid media, Kickl has siloed himself and the party in an eco-system of friendly media. He prizes message control, in this sense resembling Sebastian Kurz more than Haider. 22/

Indeed, while Kickl is the most experienced frontline politician in Austria, since he became leader, he moved past his introversion to discover his ego, thriving in the warm glow of a theatre in which the audience is adoring. But for that same reason, he abhors scrutiny. 23/

That betrays his thin-skinned nature, which is easily slighted and harbouring of grudges. He was supposedly badly injured when, in a quip, he misattributed Friedrich Nietzsche’s phrase “God is dead” to Karl Marx, damaging his self-image as a philosophising intellectual. 24/

And although famously self-controlled and combative, he was described as “highly nervous” when he was questioned by a parliamentary committee about Russia-related activities. He is far more cautious on this issue than his predecessors, but his record is mysterious. 25/

Regardless, Kickl is feared across the political landscape. He is equal parts an ideologue and power politician. If the ÖVP don’t give in to the urge to partner with him, he will be perfectly happy remaining in opposition, railing against a dysfunctional grand coalition. 26/

If he does enter government, his instincts will be majoritarian. As he put it: "Law must follow politics, not politics the law." Unlike Strache, the trappings of power and clientelist bargaining are secondary to his long-term designs for the state. 27/END

With apologies in advance for @ bombing - FYI: @APHClarkson @MilanN_inBerlin @Miyhnea @CarolineGruyter @sschaefferIDM @KurtBassuener @SamuelJsdv @Mij_Europe @MichaelGinovino @spignal @virtualnomad @lukaswiesboeck @MishaGlenny @MartinSelmayr @TonyBarber8