*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Some reflections the morning after the historic victory of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) in the parliamentary elections. Is it the triumph it appears to be? What are the prospects for the FPÖ forming a government? 1/18 If nothing else, the victory of the FPÖ is symbolic. Not only did it secure first place, but it has secured its highest vote share ever in a parliamentary election. Yet this reflects its success in consolidating the hard-right vote rather than adding new constituencies. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* With the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) polling in first place ahead of parliamentary elections on 29 September, its leader, Herbert Kickl, draws ever closer to realising his dream of becoming “Volkskanzler.” But who is Kickl? 1/27 It’s worth pointing out that, despite having been active in Austrian politics for a 1/4 century, relatively little is known about Kickl, who is very private. Recently, @profilonline journalists @bauer_gernot and @RobTreichler published a book that unearthed new material. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* The trial of former chancellor Sebastian Kurz for allegedly lying to a parliamentary committee, which began in October, reached an absurdist highpoint yesterday as Kurz’s team sought to discredit the testimony of Thomas Schmid. 1/22 Brief recap: Schmid, an erstwhile self-proclaimed “praetorian” of Kurz, was in 2019 appointed as CEO of ÖBAG, the state holding company. Previously, he was the ranking civil servant at the Ministry of Finance, from where he pulled strings to support Kurz in various ways. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* As the Signa Holding of Ösigarch Rene Benko files for bankruptcy, an era is ending - even as the legacy will occupy investors, regulators, politicians and lawyers for many years to come. A few reflections. 1/12 First, contrary to hitherto impressions, the alarm bells about Signa did not start ringing recently. They started ringing many years ago - as early as 2017 and as late as 2021 - but the "collective psyche," as we may call it, did not take notice. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Psychodrama returns, as the commentariat wonder whether Sebastian Kurz, the disgraced former chancellor and leader of the People’s Party (ÖVP), will mount a political comeback. Are the rumours to be taken seriously? 1/23 Kurz resigned as chancellor in October 2021 after becoming a subject of investigation in two corruption cases. In December of the same year, he left politics altogether, moving to Silicon Valley to work as a lobbyist for US billionaire Peter Thiel, among other things. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Chaotic days in the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) as internal disputes over the leadership of Pamela Rendi-Wagner (PRW) have escalated into open warfare. Now the party is holding quasi-primaries to (sort of) elect a leader. Or something. 1/25 A retrospective: in 2017, the SPÖ was shunted into opposition after the People’s Party (ÖVP) and far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) formed a coalition headed by Sebastian Kurz. Its leader, former chancellor (2016-17) Christian Kern, resigned in frustration in 2018. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* The Austrian government, led by Karl Nehammer's People's Party (ÖVP), vetoes the Schengen accession of Romania & Bulgaria while backing that of Croatia.

I've written an article for @bneintellinews here: intellinews.com/the-view-from-…

1/8 TLDR: the veto is nakedly political, played for domestic audiences as the ÖVP tanks in the polls. State elections are pending in the ÖVP stronghold of Lower Austria at the end of January & Nehammer cannot afford to contribute to the predicted heavy losses.

2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Historic challenges loom on multiple fronts: war, inflation, energy & migration, while the ruling People’s Party (ÖVP) haemorrhages credibility amid systemic corruption. Luckily there is a competitive centre-left party waiting in the wings.. 1/26 ..or not. In recent months, as the fetid hot air of Sebastian Kurz deflated from the ÖVP, the SPÖ shot from the doldrums of the 2019 election into first place, taking up to 30% of the vote, some 8 points ahead of the ÖVP and far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), respectively. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* On 9 October, the first round of the presidential election will be held. The 78-year-old incumbent, Alexander Van der Bellen (VdB), is seeking a second term. On paper, the vote should be a shoo-in, but there is more going on here than meets the eye. 1/ A recap for the uninitiated and amnesiacs: in 2016, former Green party leader VdB narrowly defeated the candidate of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), Norbert Hofer, in a runoff. Yet due to technical difficulties with postal votes, the runoff round had to be repeated. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Rumours are increasingly abounding that Chancellor Karl Nehammer is not long for his office. And these aren’t being yelled by the opposition but whispered from within his People’s Party (ÖVP). Where is the ÖVP-Green coalition headed? 1/ A retrospective: Nehammer was appointed chancellor and ÖVP leader in December 2021, following an autumn of chaos that begun with the resignation of Sebastian Kurz as chancellor. Kurz was replaced by Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg but remained ÖVP leader. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* In negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the former is mooting the model of neutrality adopted by Austria in 1955 as one that could be adopted by Ukraine. What does this mean? What was the context? Is it realistic? 1/END There are other neutral states in Europe, but Austria is in some respects unique because its neutrality is enshrined in the constitution. At the time, this was the least bad option for Austria because it was able to escape partition or outright vassalisation by the USSR. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Last week, the erstwhile Wunderwuzzi of the People’s Party (ÖVP), Sebastian Kurz, announced his withdrawal from political life. The dust has settled somewhat since, with a major reshuffle having been conducted by the ÖVP of its ranks and the cabinet. 1/ Leadership of the party, and along with it the chancellery, was assumed by Karl Nehammer, who was formerly interior minister. I provided an analysis of the reshuffle, as well as Kurz’s departure, for Metropole here:
metropole.at/guest-analysis… 2/

Die Türkisen reden derzeit von der „Scheinheiligkeit” der Opposition. Solcher Whataboutism ist offenbar erbärmlich sowie verzweifelt. Aber Unpopular Opinion: es hat was. Ein kurzer Thread abseits meiner üblichen Analyse. 1/8 Unter der Opposition (und Grünen) gibt es Drang nach einem U-Ausschuss zur “Österreich”-Affäre. Das ist gut so, es verlangt eine politische Aufklärung. Aber genauso dringend, wäre die Aufstellung einem U-Ausschuss zum Thema des politisch-medialen Komplexes *per se*. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* For those bored of Germany, apply within: for south of the Danube, politics in Austria is showing signs of life again following a summer of relative calm, which itself followed six months of drama and theatrics. 1/23 Over the weekend, state elections were held in Upper Austria (OÖ) and local elections in Graz. In both cases, the incumbents were Sebastian Kurz’s right-wing People’s Party (ÖVP). Despite the travails of Kurz, the ÖVP was expected to hold on; no upsets were expected. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Is Austria becoming ‘Orbanistan’? Chancellor and People’s Party (ÖVP) leader Sebastian Kurz is under investigation by the anti-corruption authority (WKStA) over suspected perjury. 1/26 Briefly summarised, Kurz is suspected of having made false statements to the parliamentary committee investigating the background to the Ibiza affair, specifically the “corruptibility” of the 2017-2019 coalition between the ÖVP and far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ). 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* As investigations into the fallout of the Ibizagate scandal continue, it is looking increasingly likely that the coalition between Sebastian Kurz’s People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Greens will collapse in the coming months. 1/25 Background: HC Strache, the former deputy chancellor and leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), was secretly filmed in Ibiza ahead of the 2017 election speaking, among other things, of “Postenschacher”, i.e. political appointments, as well as illegal political donations. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Next month, it will be the 10-year anniversary of the beginning of Sebastian Kurz’s career in the federal government, when, at the age of twenty-four, he assumed the post of state secretary for integration. 1/ Likewise, in the month thereafter, it will be four years since Kurz rode a wave of internal intrigue to become leader of the ÖVP, ending its grand coalition with the SPÖ, and changing its ideological profile perhaps forever. 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Corruption and the rule of law are dominating the headlines, as Finance Minister Gernot Blümel and the head of the Justice Ministry (BMJ)’s criminal justice department, Christian Pilnacek, have respectively found themselves under investigation. 1/ Painfully, the Group of States against Corruption (GRECO) then found the Austrian authorities to have only implemented 2 of its 17 recommendations in 2017 on anticorruption, ranking behind Turkey and just ahead of Serbia. GRECO deemed its performance “globally unsatisfactory.” 2/

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* Nearly 13 months ago, the Greens entered into government with Sebastian Kurz’s ÖVP, marking the first such coalition of its kind on the national level in Europe. 1/23 Its progress is of particular interest ahead of the German federal election later this year, which could produce a similarly colour-coded coalition. What can be learned from the Austrian variant? 2/

Some reflections on the devastating terrorist attack in Vienna on 2 November. The aftermath has degenerated into political finger-pointing, particularly by Sebastian Kurz’s ÖVP. 1/17 The spotlight has fallen on the domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Agency for the Protection of the Constitution and Combating Terrorism /BVT) b/c it did not act on a tipoff by the Slovak police that the suspect had tried to buy ammunition in Bratislava in July. 2/

*MEANWHILE IN AUSTRIA..* Some reflections on the results of the Vienna state election. Overall, there were no big surprises, but it is worth taking stock of where Austrian politics is at amid the Corona era. 1/23 The results at present are absent postal votes, of which there are some 380,000. No major surprises are expected here that could impact upon the fundamentals. 2/