Thread by @blockedfreq

There is still a ways to go and a lot can change in three weeks, but as far as PA is concerned, the last few days have been the most revealing thus far when it comes to the POTUS race since the start of election season.

Why? Let's break a few key factors down. ⬇️

Critically, we got a pair of battleground district level polls from local pollsters who are HQed in those respective districts.

PA-07, which tends to be pretty reflective of the statewide vote as a whole due to demographics, was found to be Harris+3 (50-47) by Muhlenberg.

Meanwhile, in south-central PA-10 which is left-trending and growing in population, SP&R found Harris up by 5 (46-41).

While Trump's share is way too low, the 46% mark for the VP is notable. For her to get close to 50% statewide, she needs to hit about that % in the district.

Validating those signals is the bevy of quality nonpartisan polling we've been getting around this time. NYT/Siena today showed her up 50-47, for instance. Fox, Cook, Fabrizio/Impact, Research Co., etc. all have her at 50%.

49s have been common too (Q-Pac, TIPP's RV poll, etc).

Which brings us to something people should be aware of. Back in '16, Clinton was really starting to struggle around this time.

SP&R and Muhlenberg that year only found her at 44% and 45% respectively! A lot of 45-47%s and slipping in district level polls.

This is important because when we talk about polling these days in the context of "oh wow, they missed Trump badly," it usually refers to margin and/or undershooting Trump's share.

They were generally pretty good about getting close to actual Dem shares in the averages.

For example, 538's 2020 PA aggregate was 50.2% for Biden, nearly exactly what he got. In 2016, RCP was 46.8% Clinton (she got 47.5%).

This year, we have the additional factor of Trump's % being pretty close to his 2016/2020 levels. Have pollsters fixed the issue? We'll see.

That segue aside, VBM for Dems is off to a strong start in returns and rates. The GOP is being outspent on the presidential level and a lot more heavily in all battleground districts save for PA-01 (Fitzpatrick) + PA SEN, where parity in personal v. outside spending is different.

Ground game has also been a sticking point. As many of you know, Republican efforts have been increasingly outsourced to outsider orgs and PACs while Dems have a lot more field offices, personnel, and tighter in-house organization.

Let me be clear - this is a pretty tight race and the bottom could get shaky for either side later down the road (in polling, VBM, organization, etc).

But, objectively speaking, *at the moment*, one faction does have a slight advantage. Let's see if it holds.

P.S - A few people may have read this incorrectly - 46% in PA-10 implies Harris getting close to or hitting 50% statewide. My apologies if it was interpreted differently.