Lots of thoughts in the coming days, but first and foremost - this was not a turnout thing. After all the votes are in, PA will be right around 2020 levels.

This was persuasion, and the GOP had their best result here since probably 1980. PA Dems got punched in the face. The magnitude of what happened will take some time to break down, but incumbents like Wild and Cartwright who have been in tougher situations than this went down in flames while row offices bombed.

The top of the ticket basically cratered everybody because while most Dems…

🦅 Pennsylvania - Final Thoughts

It's been a long election cycle with ups and downs, but my gut feelings + data are about the same as they were in August.

I think VP Harris is favored to win PA by 2 pts, give or take 1 while Senator Casey wins by 4-5.

Let's break down why. ⬇️ There are limitations to how much more Trump can squeeze out of those rural areas without cracking their small urban centers - IE, State College while facing off against high turnout overall.

Some data points for this include the WA primary, Selzer, the PA district polls, etc.

Ok, buckle in. Here's how Pennsylvania is going to play out tomorrow. You'll want your notifications on since I'll be live tweeting updates throughout the day regarding turnout in certain areas, new developments, etc.

Once the polls close, this is where things get interesting. Expect county by county comparisons and analyses throughout the night like I have in years past. I'll cover the top of the ticket, congressional races, and state legislature control.

I don't call races unless I'm sure there's no path w/ private and public data.

Now that voter registration in PA has closed pre-election, let's examine what exactly is happening numbers-wise.

The perception is that Dems have lost a lot of ground, but the full picture is a little more more complicated than that. Let's start with the table you see here. Voter reg is a lagging indicator and we're still in the process of getting to the point of what you'd expect to see in a tossup state.

With how shifts are being described, you'd think a 240K decline in Dems are entirely at the benefit of the GOP. Not quite.

🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 17

📥 1,550,128 votes cast

🔵 DEM: 881,779 - 73.7% returned
🔴 GOP: 501,736 - 70.6% returned
🟡 IND: 166,613 - 59.5% returned

VBM Splits: 🔵 56.9% / 🔴 32.4% / 🟡 10.7%

🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+380,043
📈 Return Edge: 🔵+3.1

Thoughts⬇️ If you're curious as to what's happening on the GOP side, read this excerpt and the overall thread. This phenomenon of Republicans surging with "in-person" early voting for whatever reason is taxing on a system not optimized for it.

https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1851354896114589931

We're in the thick of the final stretch now, so allow me to explain in detail what the deal is with how VBM/EV works in PA. This is important to understand due to the tremendous amount of misinformation and comparisons being made recently. First, the current system we have under Act 77 is actually fairly new - only a few years old. It was passed toward the end of 2019 by the Legislature. This year is the first non-COVID presidential election with it in effect, following the first midterm + off year.

There is still a ways to go and a lot can change in three weeks, but as far as PA is concerned, the last few days have been the most revealing thus far when it comes to the POTUS race since the start of election season.

Why? Let's break a few key factors down. ⬇️ Critically, we got a pair of battleground district level polls from local pollsters who are HQed in those respective districts.

PA-07, which tends to be pretty reflective of the statewide vote as a whole due to demographics, was found to be Harris+3 (50-47) by Muhlenberg.

As early voting becomes more and more common, the GOP hasn't quite properly equipped itself to deal with the ramifications and it shows. PA, MI, AZ, GA, etc, and more are seeing their electorates transform into ones that are pretty engaged with voting before Election Day.

(1/x) Consequently, I think it seems fairly safe to say that it drives up turnout since everyone's voting and contributes to solid enthusiasm. For Dems, this allows them to rely more on banked votes and fluidly change campaign tactics at will. (2/x)

Friday night's tweet chain has to do with one of ET's favorite topics - campaign finance, especially with the #GA runoff on the horizon. Some of you may recall the Citizens United v. FEC decision in 2010. Well, it's now backfiring badly on the GOP. Why, you may ask? (1/x) Although the GOP has been able to raise obscene sums of money and funnel them into their super PACs courtesy of Citizens United, Dems have caught up in a big way in large part due to shifting demographics. Money talks and the way it flows has changed since 2010. (2/x)

Winning elections isn't just about winning and gaining leverage. It's also about demoralizing the opposition, building a deep bench, setting state organizations up for future success, and more. Let's take a look at my favorite state, #PA, for an example of what I mean. (1/x) First off, running in an election takes a *lot* of time, especially for statewide contests. You'd be taking years out of your life and a significant amount of commitment if you're serious about winning. So, if you run, you want to have a realistic chance of victory. (2/x)

Now that Pelosi is stepping down as Dem Leader (bless her heart and her service for the country), we need to talk about Hakeem Jeffries, her successor. And @lxeagle17 knows where I'm going with this. It's something that people need to be aware of heading into the future. (1/x) @lxeagle17 First off, if you're a progressive or enjoy progressive cooperation with other subgroups of the Dem caucus, you're not going to have a fun time with Hakeem. He is very, very weirdly antagonistic to folks who hail from that spectrum. (2/x)

As I conduct the postmortem on #PASen, my thoughts keep drifting back to the one realistic shot Dems have at a pickup in 2024 - #TXSen. This is because I see one element of Fetterman's playbook that can be used there to devasting effect. I'll elaborate. (1/x) Now, nobody should try to replicate him and his unique brand. Nobody can. It was a mixture of a lot of things that came together properly. But one thing that stands out and can be carried over to other races is the ability to brand opposition candidates as unserious. (2/x)

I’ll make a lengthy blog post breakdown of what happened in #PASen once everything’s in, but let me take the time to talk about why this midterm was so morale boosting for Dems. We found out that there are very clear limits to what the electorate is willing to accept (1/x) from election denialism to abortion restrictions to allowing poor general election candidates through from the primary. Trump made things murky in 2016 and 2020, but we, along with GOP leadership, realize that you can only go so far before enough people decide to bite back. (2/x)

#PASen

Now that my pre-election post is out, I need to lay out a few things about how tomorrow goes. Please retweet or save this just so that everyone is abundantly clear about what happens. I want as little stress on you guys as possible. (1/x)

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1589820726802255872

1. I'll start coverage shortly after 6 PM EST and look at what we're getting on the ground before moving to feeding votes into my model once the polls close.

2. I will continuously tweet updates on benchmarks as I get them. IE - Fett needs 30% in Beaver, he's getting 35%.

1. Fetterman has the $$$ advantage in the final stretch.
2. Fetterman continues to lead in 99% of nonpartisan polls.
3. Fetterman has the distinct home turf/regional advantage.
4. Early returns show (not guaranteed) Fetterman's edge in relation to #3.

Crystal Ball: Lean R

???

https://twitter.com/Center4Politics/status/1589692348359151616

Like, I get it. But CCM does not possess 2-3 of the advantages I listed and if you're going to have her favored, that says a lot about how you selectively choose to weigh fundamentals. NV is extremely transient and PA isn't.

#PASen - 11/7 Update

~65,000 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to a little over 1.1 million votes cast.

Dem return rate is 79.5%.
GOP return rate is 78.1%.

Solid green = 80%+ returns, light green = 70-80%.

There are a LOT of breakdowns here. Read on... 1. SEPA massively delivered in a last minute clutch and all Philly collars + Philly itself are either above 70% reporting or edging close to 80%. If you were concerned about them, you can breathe far easier now.

2. Montgomery and Chester shot almost 10 pts up in report rate.

#PASen - 11/4 Update

~42,000 ballots were returned, bringing us to ~1,060,000 cast.

Dem return rate went up to 75.3%, breaking the threshold of 3/4s of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is now 73%.

A few interesting observations with this one. Let's dive in. Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%

There's been a lot of conversation on the merits of analyzing the early vote this evening. Since I'm doing a fair bit of it for PA, allow me to offer a few thoughts about it. (1/x) Disclaimer: I will say this - you do have to be careful about doing stuff like that. It varies wildly from state to state in terms of effectiveness. A big reason why I'm doing this revolves around testing a wider hypothesis I have about a hybrid model of election analysis. (2/x)

#PASen - 11/3 Update (big one!)

~50,000 ballots were returned, bringing us across the threshold of ONE MILLION votes cast (1,017,019).

Dem return rate crossed another major threshold of 72.6% of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is 69.7%.

Takeways below. Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%

#PASen - 10/31 Update

~62,500 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to ~855,000 cast.

Dem return rate is 63.6%
GOP return rate is 59%

Dem advantage in return rate remains stable at ~4.5%.

The map has been upgraded to the next level. Color key and analysis below.

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1586038647333289984

Dark green = 80%+ of ballots returned.
Light green = 70-80% of ballots returned.
Yellow = 60-70% of ballots returned.
Red = 50-60% of ballots returned.
Purple = 40-50% of ballots returned.

Once 95%+ of ballots in a county have been returned, the county color will turn blue.