Thread by @TomABacon

As a Brit, I've been watching the American election results with sorrow for my American friends. Some are comparing it to the Brexit vote here, imagining if we'd voted for Brexit twice. But here's the thing... in a sense, we did. And here are some lessons from it. 🧵

First, an explanation: The U.K. chose Brexit in a referendum in 2016. But Brexit did not become truly inevitable until 2019, when the country doubled down on this decision and gave Boris Johnson a massive 80+-seat parliamentary majority. /2

In context: our parliamentary system gives someone with an 80+-seat majority in parliament pretty much unlimited power. Their only real opposition comes from their own side. /3

But the Johnson government got almost nothing done. Why? Well, to be fair, partly it was due to unforeseen circumstances: a global pandemic. But it was also partly because of Johnson himself. /4

Johnson liked power in theory, but had no real interest in what to do with it other than serve his own interests. He ran Downing Street like an old Medieval court, where people vied for his patronage. /5

Policy agendas were pursued as long as one person was up, and then dropped as soon as they were down. Johnson's attention moved from one thing to another, lacking any real direction. /6

You can probably see the parallels here, and hopefully see why I'm drawing some of this out. Trump is Johnson multiplied by a factor of ten or more. Do NOT expect a coherent agenda. /7

I'm well aware of Project 2025 and the like. But here's the thing: Trump isn't interested in the Project 2025 agenda. He's interested in the Trump agenda. He doesn't want to be managed or controlled. /8

Did you see how the election changed tone over the last few weeks, when he got bored of being kept under control and in check. You really think he'll sign up to somebody else's agenda? Or at least... sign up to it for long? /9

Trump will run his White House like a Medieval court. He'll pursue an agenda for only so long, until he either loses focus... or somebody else catches his attention and he pursues their agenda instead. /10

Does this mean Trump's government will do no damage? No. But it does mean the damage it does will be scattershot, rather than the focused agenda seen in Project 2025. I don't know how far it'll get - I pray not far. /11

And there's a second factor to consider: events, dear boy, events. We have the misfortune of living in "interesting times." For Johnson, the unforeseen event was a global pandemic. What will Trump's events be? /12

And make no mistake: there WILL be events. There are people all over the world eager to take advantage of the opportunity they've been given now - a chance to cause yet more chaos. /13

Here in the UK, we saw what happens when a clown has turned government into a circus at a time when you need actual government. That, I'm afraid, is what America is about to experience too. /14

I don't know whether all this will give you relief or leave you even more stressed. But here's the thing to remember: Boris Johnson's government failed. It did so largely because of the character of the man in charge. /15

Likewise: My strong suspicion is that Donald Trump's government will fail. It will do so largely because of the character of the man in charge. /16

Don't expect to ever be able to say "I told you so" to Trump voters, incidentally. The goal isn't to be proved right; it's to win them over. "I told you so" causes people to dig in. So spend time listening and engaging. /17

Figure out how to WIN them, how to persuade them, how to play to their interests. Here in the U.K., Keir Starmer managed a remarkable feat in winning a strong majority through smart strategy. Do your own version. Engage. Persuade. Win. /18

In 2019, I was crushed. A British government with a parliamentary majority of 80+ should've been unassailable. The constitutional reforms the Tories were proposing should've cemented them in power for a decade more. /19

Likewise, right now, you feel crushed. Donald Trump and the Republican agenda seems unassailable. The constitutional reforms the Republicans are proposing have the potential to cement them in power for a long, long time. /20

But it's not over, because not all of it will happen. There will be a lot of damage, and it will take a very long time to repair the damage. Here, it'll probably take a decade or more. I'm afraid I suspect it'll take you longer still. /21

Don't give up. For now? My prayers are with America. I'm sorry for what you're about to go through, and I wish I could do something to help. Just know it's never too late - not in a democracy. /end