Russia seems headed towards a February 1917 moment.
1. A kilogram of potatoes in Nov 2024 is 73% more expensive than in Jan 2024.
2. Interest rates reached 21% in Oct 2024
3. Mortgage rates have risen to 28%
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express.co.uk/news/world/197…
The Russian railway system is now falling apart.
It's not one thing, it is everything.
The Western ball bearing were the excuse for the Russian railway system to fire its entire maintenance department in 2013.
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moscowtimes.ru/2024/11/15/rzh…
~40% of Russian railway rolling stock is Soviet era vintage.
Russia went to 100% utilization of the Trans-Siberian railway in the late summer of 2021 and has stayed there ever since.
Those rail cars were not well maintained to start with, less Western bearings.
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Finnish firms were also hired out to do some of the Russian engine maintenance before Feb 2022.
All of the above ended in April 2022.
This isn't the first time I've mentioned this subject.
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Modern railway roller bearings last 2 million kilometers with good rails and reliable preventive maintenance cycles.
That is 108 round trips from Moscow to Vladivostok and back in about 63 months on an 80% usage rate.
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The war has lasted 2 years ~9 months with 100% usage since 3rd qtr 2021
Things have gotten so clogged on the east-west pats of the Russian railway system that Russian companies are _Trucking_ railway rolling stock just to have the ability to move
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...product by train on other parts of the system.
Half of Russian engines and rolling stock may have burned out their Western bearings by now.
The bill for delayed/deferred maintenance has come due.
Plus, the Chinese rail bearing have far less
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...life & require lubrication that Western bearings do not.
The Moscow Times article makes clear that lubricated Chinese bearings are not a real option for Russia as there is also a huge labor shortage for locomotive crews as well as for rolling stock.
Clip H/T @Prune602
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The Russian rail system collapse sequence is as follows:
1st trains on remote Russian rail lines derail.
2nd more Russian trains on lines closer to Moscow derail.
3rd the Russian repair trains derail on the way to open derailments.
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4th we see triage as the Russian rail system starts collapsing on a LARGE SCALE.
5th, Russian rail transport apocalypse
The Moscow Times article points to Russia closing in on #4.
Clip H/T @Prune602
10/10
@threadreaderapp unroll please
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