Thread by @MassDara

There are many rumors that Russia is evacuating its bases at Tartus and Khmeimim in Syria, but most assets remain there. If evacuation happens, it will be obvious. A brief thread on what is happening now and what future moves would look like. 🧵

As of 7 December, most of Russia’s ships are in or near port in Tartus. Follow @KaptainLOMA for updates on their presence.

These ships cannot return to the Black Sea while Turkey has closed the straits under the Montreux Convention so they would have to attempt a very long journey to the Baltic Fleet, or try to find a temporary accommodation nearby at a limited number of ports (Libya, Sudan, Algeria)

Air lift. An air evacuation would take hundreds of sorties of IL-76 and An-124, not the handful identified yesterday at Khmeimim. When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before base expansion.

The 4 transport aircraft yesterday are probably taking cargo/people out, but we do not know what Russia brought IN on those aircraft. Options for inbound cargo that I think are possible are limited mercs or weapons/supplies/ammunition to defend their bases.

IL-76s (and less often AN-124) land at Khmeimim as a major transport hub, sporadic arrivals were part of normal patterns. A change signifying a major evacuation will be clear. Also to watch: will they still be able to use Syrian airspace for their routes into Africa or not.

What happens to the fighter aircraft will also be very telling. If Russia thinks they are going to be attacked, they can fly out the way they got them in. They can also pack up helicopters and air defense in AN-124s too.

If Russian airlift continues to fly the short route back to Russia over Turkey, it means Turkey has agreed to it of course. There is an air corridor that is much longer that runs over Iraq and Iran if NATO airspace is denied.

I don't know how the politics of Russia's continued base access will play out at this point in time. But, I know that the airlift requirements would be massive and the signature would be unmistakable if initiated as a negotiated exit or urgent evacuation.

I assume Russia wants to hold bases if they can through negotiations. Resources they can offer: money, barter, oil/gas, limited mercs, etc. What matters is if the Syrian coalition would entertain anything from them, and I leave that assessment that to others.

Russia's power projection in the Med for ten years was makeshift, which was known. They didn't complete redundant basing deals nearby. I assume they are trying to make deals in Syria or other locations right now., let's see if bargains are struck under duress or not. /x

Update: regarding deals, anonymous sources told TASS “Syrian opposition guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria.” let’s see.