Thread by @sfrantzman

Some people see Oct 7 as primarily linked to the Iran-backed axis. However, in my view it’s much more closely linked to the long-term goal of Ankara and Doha. Both host Hamas and backed Oct 7. Both are western allies which gives Hamas much more clout than Hezbollah or the Assad regime had

Iran’s goal in backing Hamas was to exploit the Israel-Palestinian conflict to have a “foot” within what it believed was a popular Arab and “Sunni” cause. It already had PIJ as a proxy, it wanted to grow outside this narrow niche. To do that it promised to knit Hamas into its network of proxies

The Houthis joined this because it was convenient for them and Hezbollah and the Iraqi militias did the same, against their own best interests probably. But for Ankara and Doha October 7 is THE cause. It’s not just an exploitation, it’s the main goal

Hamas is a genocidal organization. We haven’t remember it grew into this via tutelage from Ankara and Doha, not primarily from Iran. Iran helped it build missiles, but the ideology of October 7 that led them to kidnap kids and massacre old people and the Nova festival is tied more directly to the ideology of Ankara and Doha

You can see this by looking at the difference in how Hezbollah conducted its war after Oct 7. It claimed to target military sites. By contrast Hamas primarily targeted civilians and purposely targeted Kibbutzim who had been helping Gazans

The Hamas goal has always been to prevent two state and use genocide to do it. This is its primary ideology. That’s why it purposely murders people who support two states and peace. Whenever there is chance for peace Hamas arrives to kill civilians. It did it in the 1990s and then after Disengagement

After Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 this was the biggest threat to the One State crowd and they operationalized Hamas. They also got Doha to host it. The goal: The genocide of Jews and destruction of Israel. This was set in motion after the 2011 Shalit deal and Hamas moving to Doha in 2012.

Remember back in 2006 and 2007 Hamas and Hezbollah were much weaker. Things changed rapidly after 2012 and Hamas became a terror empire in Gaza with collaboration from NGOs and UN orgs

It’s important to recognize also that human rights groups were slowly coopted, likely with slow investment from Doha, Ankara, Russia and Tehran; and they coordinated to define Israel as apartheid in 2020-2021.

Once they had defined Israel this way, Hamas massacre of civilians could be defined as “legitimate resistance against Apartheid.” The goal was one state. The road was paved to get to Oct 7 from there.

What’s important to understand is that Oct 7 was primarily part of the long goal of Doha and Ankara. Another prong of this offensive was Ankara’s other war in Syria targeting Kurds. The goal was two-pronged, Hamas was used as the genocide device against Jews, and in Syria they relied on the SNA to ethnically cleanse Kurds from Afrin in 2018 and from other areas in the coming years

October 7 is connected to attacks on Kurds because the multi-pronged war effort is designed to massacre all the minorities in the Middle East, but over a long slow period of time. Oct 7 was the largest massacre of Jews since the Shoah. It was a result of a process that goes back many years to radicalize and operationalize Hamas. Hamas leaders live in Doha and are backed by Ankara. Their main ideology of massacring civilians is tied to that. This is why the murder of Hevrin Khalaf and Shani Louk appear so similar on video. It’s the same ideology.

The decline of Iran’s axis will leave Hamas with the same ideological foundation. Its genocidal foundation is primarily backed by Doha and Ankara whereas its missile and technological ambitions were a result of Iranian support (like Houthi missiles etc). The blending of the Iranian tech know-how with the ideological genocidal views is what made Oct 7 possible. To prevent another occurrence requires dealing with the ideological support