Thread by @dolphin_dane

🇦🇱🇪🇺 BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2025: FESTIVALI I KËNGËS RESULTS
Based on predictions of Eurofans, I have simulated FiK 63 10000 times. These prediction and simulations give us a detailed picture of how we may expect the contest to play out. Let's take a closer look (🧵)

It is clear from the predictions, that Elvana goes into the final as a massive favourite. While her jury is only slightly ahead of the others, her televote lead is massive, averaging around a 3rd of all votes casts. Her closest competititor is Shkodra Elektronike, with around 13%

If we look at the average final, it's clear to see how this matters. If Elvana is able to match the vote we expect, jury votes won't matter to her win. Any competitor will need a huge overperformance in the televote to have a shot at snatching the win

So does this seem like the best result for Albania's chances in Basel? The short answer is yes, as Elvana is predicted to do better with juries and televoters than the other acts. However, the gap to Shkodra is much smaller here, with Orgesa and Ardit also seeming like likely Q's

Let's now take a look at each entry's detailed overview. It is worth noting that this survey saw a much lower response rate than usual, perhaps due to an overload of songs, interest being focused around the top and late launch. However I still thing you will find this interesting

Elvana Gjata - Karnaval:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 80
Average tele prediction: 34.7%
Win chance: 93.52%
Top 3 chance: 99.12%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 44.7/135.9/180.6

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 47.4
Tele prediction: 66.6

Shkodra Elektronike - Zjerm:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 72.1
Average tele prediction: 12.7%
Win chance: 4.88%
Top 3 chance: 60.96%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 37.9/50.1/87.9

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 45
Tele prediction: 52.5

Orgesa Zaimi - I parë:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 68.2
Average tele prediction: 7.5%
Win chance: 0.44%
Top 3 chance: 29.34%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 34.6/30.1/64.7

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 27.5
Tele prediction: 37.7

Ardit Çuni - Amane:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 65.7
Average tele prediction: 7.7%
Win chance: 0.32%
Top 3 chance: 26.17%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 33.1/30.9/64

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 23.8
Tele prediction: 36.5

Mal Retkoceri - Antihero:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 71.4
Average tele prediction: 6.4%
Win chance: 0.3%
Top 3 chance: 24.1%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 37.4/26.3/63.7

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 23.4
Tele prediction: 23.5

Lorenc Hasrama - Frymë:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 61
Average tele prediction: 5.3%
Win chance: 0.23%
Top 3 chance: 15.92%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 29.9/22.4/52.3

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 26.8
Tele prediction: 15.1

Alis Kallacej - Mjegull:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 69.4
Average tele prediction: 3.6%
Win chance: 0.01%
Top 3 chance: 11.82%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 35.6/14.5/50.1

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 35.4
Tele prediction: 23.6

Vesa Smolica - Lutem:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 57.4
Average tele prediction: 4.7%
Win chance: 0.2%
Top 3 chance: 10.72%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 27.2/19.9/47.1

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 25.3
Tele prediction: 16.7

Jet - Gjallë:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 58.8
Average tele prediction: 4.3%
Win chance: 0.03%
Top 3 chance: 9.4%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 28.4/17.8/46.2

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 25.7
Tele prediction: 21.2

Djemtë e Detit - Larg:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 45.3
Average tele prediction: 4.5%
Win chance: 0.07%
Top 3 chance: 8.64%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 21/19.3/40.3

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 4.8
Tele prediction: 9.3

Algert Sala - Bosh:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 60
Average tele prediction: 2.8%
Win chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 2.66%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 28/11.7/39.8

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 23.2
Tele prediction: 17

Nita Latifi - Zemrës:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 33.9
Average tele prediction: 1.4%
Win chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.52%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 13.4/6.6/19.9

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 17.5
Tele prediction: 11.4

Kejsi Jazxhi - Kur bota hesht:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 42.5
Average tele prediction: 0.5%
Win chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.32%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 17.5/2/19.4

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 16.2
Tele prediction: 10.6

Stine - E kishim nis:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 21.5
Average tele prediction: 2.7%
Win chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.24%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 6.5/12.8/19.3

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 5.3
Tele prediction: 3.5

Gjergj Kaçinari - Larg jetës pa ty:
FiK:
Average jury prediction: 31.2
Average tele prediction: 1.4%
Win chance: 0%
Top 3 chance: 0.07%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 10.8/5.9/16.7

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 8.7
Tele prediction: 7.2

@threadreaderapp unroll