BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2026 RESULTS
After collecting the predictions of 327 fans and using them to simulate the contest 100000 times in a sophisticated model, here are the results. A full, high detail forecast of the contest based on our collective wisdom (a thread 🧵)


Before we start, a quick disclaimer:
While the model has proven relatively reliable before, being on par/better than the odds, it is not omniscient. There will be misses
The results are also not my personal predictions, as I am only responsible for one 327th of the models data

SANREMO 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇮🇹🕸️📊
Always a highlight of the Eurovision year, Sanremo is back for the 75th time. And as always, the songs feature many familiar faces from Sanremo past and present. Let's take a closer look at all the connections (a thread 🧵) #sanremo25 Sarah Toscano - Amarcord
"Amarcord" was written with the help of regular writers Federica Abbate and Jacopo Ettorre who previously collabed on "Due" and "Fino a qui", as well as a team of less frequent writers who worked on "No grazie" and "Furore"

POLSKIE KWALIFIKACJE 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇵🇱🕸️📊
After a brief experiment with internal selection Poland is back to giving us national finals. In the lineup we find multiple entrants and songwriters from the past. Let's take a closer look at all the connections (a thread 🧵) Chrust - Tempo
"Tempo" was written with the help of Krzysztof Falkowski, who was behind Maciej Musiałowski's entry in last year's internal selection, finishing 9th, receiving Kasia Moś highest points

VIDBIR 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇺🇦🕸️📊
As always, #Vidbir is a highlight of the Eurovision season. This year, five out of the ten entries have connection to other entries in the Eurovision world. Let's take a closer look at all the connections (a thread 🧵) A quick note:
As I source my database from different sources, different translitterations have to be harmonized for me to make these connections. Due to that some connections may have been missed. Please let me know if non-Ukrainian transliterations have been used in the plots!

EUROSONG 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇧🇪🕸️📊
Tonight is the night, where we'll once again witness a Belgian selection, after last years internal process. What really sets #Eurosong apart, is the fact the 5/8 were written by the same person! Let's take a closer look (a thread 🧵) Leez - Perfectly Imperfect
Perfectly Imperfect was written by Will Knox, who was involved with Eurovision 2019 winner "Arcade", in addition to a few NF entries. Also in the mix is Loek van der Grinten, who helped write Netherlands 2023 entry "Burning Daylight"

ETHNIKÓS TELIKÓS 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇬🇷🕸️📊
After many years of internal selections the Greek selection is finally back to our screens! Among the participants we see a few connections to former entries, both recent and older. Let's take a look (a thread 🧵) #EthnikosTelikos Klavdia - Asteromata
One of the two big favourites, Asteromata was written by the writing team Arcade, who were also involved with Stefania's 2020 and 2021 entries. Will they be able to add another Eurovision participation to their resumé?

MALTA EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇲🇹🕸️📊
Another year, another MESC. Like previous years, the song list is filled with connections to previous entries, with not a single song being disconnected. Let's take a closer look! (a thread 🧵) Adria Twins - Qalb ma' Qalb
A collaboration between regular Maltese writers Sebastian Pritchard-James (Loop) and Joe Julian Farrugia (We Are More) and Swedish writer Melanie Wehbe (Move/Sand/Love Is Forever)

UUDEN MUSIIKIN KILPAILU 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇫🇮🕸️📊
With UMK entering the sixth year of its modern era, the Finnish NF still manages to generate new excitement with each song. This year, almost every song has familiar faces involved, both from UMK and abroad (a thread 🧵) Neea River - Nightmares
While "Nightmares" marks her Eurovision debut as an artist, Neea had a brief stint of songwriting in 2020 NF's, writing UMK power ballad "I Let My Hear Break" and Eesti Laul bop "Miljon sammu". She is helped by Ilkka Wirtanen (Mustelmat/Discoteque)

EESTI LAUL 2025 WILDCARDS SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇪🇪🕸️📊
While 15 songs are already qualified for the final a 16th wildcard entry will be chosen from 20 candidates with voting closing today. Let's take a look at the candidates, 13 of which have familiar names (A thread 🧵) This thread will be covering the 20 songs competing in the wildcard competition. For the 15 that are already qualified for the final, check out my original thread here. Now let's get to it

https://x.com/dolphin_dane/status/1853907927016382859

🇦🇱🇪🇺 BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2025: FESTIVALI I KËNGËS RESULTS
Based on predictions of Eurofans, I have simulated FiK 63 10000 times. These prediction and simulations give us a detailed picture of how we may expect the contest to play out. Let's take a closer look (🧵) It is clear from the predictions, that Elvana goes into the final as a massive favourite. While her jury is only slightly ahead of the others, her televote lead is massive, averaging around a 3rd of all votes casts. Her closest competititor is Shkodra Elektronike, with around 13%

Dora 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇭🇷🕸️📊
After getting its best ever result as an independent nation in 2024 Croatia has a lot to live up to in Basel. It looks like many familiar faces are looking to strike, with 21/28 of the songs having connections. Let's take a look (a thread 🧵) Ananda - "Lies Lay Cold"
One of three songs in the lineup written by Ananda, with her also being the performing artist here. The song was cowritten by Jonas Ekdahl and Andreas Björkman, who have previously worked together on songs for Bernarda and Queens of Roses

PESMA ZA EVROVIZIJU '25 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇷🇸🕸️📊
One of the most hyped national finals of the 2020's, PZE is back for its fourth edition. Among the entries, we see plenty of artists and songwriters from both recent and older selections. Let's take a closer look! (a thread 🧵) AltCtrl - "Mamurna jutra"
Both former members of Lift, Dimitrije and Aleksa are performing as part of a new project for PZE 2025. They were also involved with the writing of Nadia's "Devojka tvog dečka"

EMA 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇸🇮🕸️📊
After a two year hiatus, the beloved Slovenian national final, EMA, is back! Among artists and writers we see a bunch of familiar faces, with 8/12 entries having connections to previous entries. Let's tak a closer look at each (a thread 🧵) Anna - "Čau"
Anna is making her debut with the help of Krešimir Tomec, who was behind Slovenia's 3rd JESC entry. He was also behind "Masquerade" for EMA 2014, which failed to make the superfinal

Why Līgo by the Ludvig may be ineligible for Eurovision in its current form, a thread 🧵 I believe Līgo would be ineligible for Eurovision, as it appears to sample “Līg”, a choral song by Ārijs Šķepasts:

MELODIFESTIVALEN 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇸🇪🕸️📊
A dominant national final in modern Eurovision, Mello is back once again! And just look previous years, the song list is filled with familiar faces. Only 2 of the 30 songs seem to have no attachment to previous songs (a thread 🧵) Linnea Henriksson - Den känslan
Two of the newer songwriters in the Mello sphere, "Den känslan" was written by David Lindgren Zacharias and Sebastian Atas. Their previous collabs include Lisa Ajax' "Awful Liar" and Robin Bengtsson's "Innocent Love"

🇲🇪🇪🇺 BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2025: MONTESONG RESULTS
Based on the predictions of Eurofans, I have simulated Montesong 2024 10000 times. These predictions and simulations allow us to get a solid picture of each entry's chances at the competition. Let's go! (A thread 🧵) As reflected in the winning chances, you believe "Dobrodošli" is by far the strongest entry in the selection, having both the highest predicted jury and tele score on average. While 8 of the entries have limited chances, the other 8 either do well with jury, tele or both

SUPERNOVA 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇱🇻🕸️📊
Our second set of songs of the season are out (at least in snippets)! And among the artists and writers we see many familiar faces, with 15/20 songs being connected to previous entries. Let's take a closer look (a thread 🧵) Bel Tempo and Legzdina - "The Water"
Andis and Julijs are participating together as "Bel Tempo", but have previously authored songs for Supernova on their own, each reaching second place, Andis with "Heart Beats" and Julijs with "Hush"

FESTIVALI I KËNGËS 63 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇦🇱🕸️📊
The days are getting darker and FiK-mas is just around the corner! Of the 30 lineup, 22 songs have connections to other entries. Big names, new stars, seasoned songwriters, this has everything. Let's take a look (a thread 🧵) Ardit Çuni - "Amane"
A newcomer to FiK himself, Ardit is helped by Stivi Ushe, who competed himself last year, with the dramatic ballad "Askush si ty". Also worth noting that in these graphs, songs are labelled by Eurovision year (so one year later than the FiK year)

BENIDORM FEST 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🕸️📊🇪🇸
One of the most anticipated national finals in recent years, BenidormFest is back once again. Of the 16 songs 8 have connections to previous entries in the world of Eurovision. Let's take a closer look (a thread 🧵) #BenidormFest2025 Celine Van Heel - "La casa"
While "La casa" will be Celine's first release, her team features clear Eurovision experience in the form of Alfred García, who represented Spain in Lisbon in 2018. On top of his entries from the 2018 selection, Alfred also took part in Benidorm 2023

JUNIOR EUROVISION 2024 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇪🇺📊🕸️
With less than 10 days to go, it's time to take a look at the teams behind each song. Though the artists have no previous involvement with Eurovision by nature, 14/17 songs have known Eurovision names behind them (A thread 🧵) 🇦🇱 Nikol Çabeli - "Vallëzoj"
Just like last year, Albania's entry was written by fan favourite writer Eriona Rushiti. She is known for succesful FiK entries like "Kthëju tokës", "Duje" and "Zjarri im". Also in the mix is JESC 2022-writer Endri Muçaj

EESTI LAUL 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇪🇪📊🕸️
We have our first 15 songs for what's shaping up to be a highlight of the 2025 season! All songs have connections to previous entries, so even though we have to wait a month, we can already get a feel for the songs now! (A thread 🧵) An-Marlen - "Külm"
2022 fan favourite An-Marlen is back! As with "Lõpuks muutub", An-Marlen has writing credits on "Külm" too