EUROVISION 2020 "WHAT IF?" SIMULATION RESULTS - A Thread 🧵📊🎶

https://twitter.com/dolphin_dane/status/1808080047783215333

The results of my "What If?" 2020 prediction survey are here. After receiving eurofans assessments of all 2020 entries' jury and televote potentials, these results were fed to a model simulating the contest 100000 times. These are the average results of the simulations

The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey 2025 - Participants results thread 🧵 In this thread I will reveal the results of the survey, including the average participation chance and most likely artists to represent each country, all based on your predictions. I will be going from least to most likely participating country

The results of The Big #Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition are finally here! Who will qualify from the semis? Who will win the whole contest? How will each country do? All these questions and more answered through your collective wisdom. Take a look: 🧵📊

https://twitter.com/dolphin_dane/status/1786808545888854168

A quick note on the model: I collected 106 sets of predictions of each country's jury and televote potential. Based on your estimates, I simulated the contest 100000 times, taking into account voting patterns and running order. This thread contains the results of the simulations

The results of "The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey" of 2024 are finally here!
Based on the 248 responses submitted, 100000 simulations have been run in a statistical model simulating the 2024 as closely as possible. Here are the results! 🧵

https://twitter.com/dolphin_dane/status/1770859939122016531

SEMI FINAL 1:
Throughout the 100000 simulations, these were the qualification rates for each country. As you can see, the semi appears quite open, with 12 entries qualifying close to or more than 50% of the time. Our most typical 10 qualifiers are:
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Ciao! 🇮🇹
Being the inspiration for #Eurovision, #Sanremo is so much more than a national final! This year, 30 artists are competing to make their mark on the iconic contest. Who will win the right to represent Italy? It's time for my #Sanremo2024 songwriter deep dive 🕸️📊🧵 Emma - Apnea
Having won Sanremo 2012 and representing Italy at Eurovision 2014 Emma Marrone is no stranger to the big stage. This time, she's collaborating with Julien Boverod (Brividi), Paolo Antonacci (Tango) and Davide Petrella, who she also worked with for "Ogni volta è cosi"

Halløj! 🇩🇰
Eight artist are in the running to represent Denmark on (almost) home turf in Malmø! A lot of familiar faces can be spotted in the credits. It's time for my #DMGP2024 songwriter deep dive! 🕸️📊🧵
#Eurovision #DMGP #Eurovision2024 Saba - Sand
In addition to Danish indie star Pil, "Sand" was written by Swedes Jonas Thander and Melanie Webbe. This is their first collab, but they have previously written entries like ""I've Been Waiting for This Night", "Bigger Than Us", "Move", and "Love Is Forever"

Moien! 🇱🇺
After 31 years of absence from #Eurovision, Luxembourg is back with 8 songs for their national final. Among them we see many familiar faces. It's time for my Luxembourg Song Contest songwriter deep dive 🕸️📊🧵
#LSC2024 #Eurovision2024 Angy and Rafa Ela - Drop
The smallest diagram today, "Drop" was written by Martin Kleveland, who previously wrote Hilda and Thea Leora's NMGP14 song "Best Friend's Boyfriend". That song failed to advance from the semi, but will "Drop" be able to grab the ticket for Malmø?

Heja Norge! 🇳🇴
3 semis, 18 songs, and everything from goofy bops to emotional ballads. The Norsk Melodi Grand Prix 2024 songs are here, and lots of them have familiar faces. It's time for my #MGP2024 songwriter deep-dive 🕸️📊🧵
#nrkmgp #Eurovision 🇳🇴🔴SEMI FINAL 1🔴🇳🇴

🇷🇸🇷🇸🇷🇸 Zdravo!
28 songs are competing to win the Serbian ticket to Malmö for #Eurovision2024 Will one of the most succesful new national finals continue to produce great songs? It's time for my #PZE24 songwriter deep dive🕸️📊🧵
#Eurovision Nemanja Radošević – Jutra bez tebe
A regular in Serbian NF's during the late 00's, Saša Milošević Mare is back! She previously wrote ESC-entries "Molitva" and "Ljubav je svuda". Can her song make it to the big stage for a third time?

🇦🇱🇦🇱🇦🇱Merry FiK-mas!
It's that special time of year again, with 31 artist, including lots of familiar names, competing to win #festivaliikenges and/or the right to represent Albania at #eurovision2024
It's time for my #fik62 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🕸️📊🧵
#eurovision #fest62 🇦🇱🦅SEMI FINAL 1🦅🇦🇱

Привіт! 🇺🇦
In the #Vidbir wildcard round, 9 songs are fighting for the last spot in the final, and a handful have connections to previous entries.
It's time for my Vidbir 2024 wildcard songwriter deep dive 🕸️📊🧵
#Eurovision Krylata - Queen
Queen is written by Yevhenii Bardachenko among others. He is attempting to make consecutive participations, following his song last year, Demchuk's "Alive". He also had a song back in 2018, Dilemma's "Na Party"

¡Vamos España! 🇪🇸 16 songs are ready to take the stage in Benidorm, and many have familiar names involved 👀
It's time for my #BenidormFest2024 songwriter deep dive! 🕸️📊🧵
#Eurovision #BenidormFest #Eurovision #ElFestivalQueQuieres Angy Fernández - Sé quién soy
Angy is ready to make her Benidorm debut with the help of two major Swedish songwriters. Two-time Eurovision winner Thomas G:son joins forces with Dotter-partner and Melfest rising star Dino Medanhodzic for their second collab this NF season

20 songs, 10 finalists, and way too many Õ's
🇪🇪 It's time for my #EestiLaul 2024 songwriter deep dive!🕸️📊🧵
#Eurovision #Eesti #EestiLaul2024 🇪🇪🐋THE 15 SEMI FINALISTS🐋🇪🇪