1/13 Not to brag, but here are a few reasons why Finland is unlikely to be russia's first choice for a full-scale invasion beyond Ukraine. This does not mean we are not on russia's radar!
2/13 If the war in Ukraine comes to an end or eases at some point in the future, or if it continues while russia receives enough assistance from china, iran, north korea, and belarus to maintain its war economy, russia might also contemplate invading other areas.
3/13 russia has strategies prepared for its neighboring countries, including Finland, and has been conducting invasion drills for years. Although russia is significantly weakened economically and demographically, it depends on a sustained state of war.
4/13 russia has numerous locations where it could potentially initiate a military operation, with ambitions spanning all regions of the former russian empire. However, Finland is probably not the first target for a full-scale invasion.
5/13 The brief explanation for why Finland is not the top choice is that Finland is too strong and united while russia is too weak. Finland's defense and deterrence are not solely reliant on its alliances and partnerships, although those elements are certainly beneficial.
6/13 russia has attempted to invade Finland multiple times in the past, and despite a significant amount of disinformation, many russians understand that successfully invading Finland is nearly impossible for them.
7/13 Finland is simply too strong, well-prepared, united, and possesses a complex nature. It stands as Europe's most prepared nation for territorial defense, boasting a reserve force of 870,000 and an infrastructure fully ready for wartime conditions.
8/13 Finland's armed forces are modern, capable, and tailored to address the russian threat. When paired with a society that is united and motivated and civilian infrastructure designed for wartime, it presents a formidable challenge to overcome.
9/13 Finland's population consistently ranks highest in Europe in surveys regarding the willingness to defend the country against a superior invader.
10/13 Finland has bomb shelters for all its civilians, bridges prepared for demolition if necessary, and private companies that understand their roles in the event of a war. Additionally, Finland possesses the largest artillery capability in Western Europe.
11/13 Finland is a NATO member, which makes an invasion unlikely. If NATO weakens or the US withdraws under Trump, other NATO countries, like the Baltic States, are more likely to face invasion first. Europe must do everything possible to support them.
12/13 This doesn’t mean Finland is immune to a russian invasion or off russia’s radar. Finland is vulnerable to hybrid operations, which are occurring frequently. However, the rest of Europe must urgently enhance its defenses and infrastructure instead of relying on alliances.
13/13 Source:
The Moscow Times - Finland Is Awake to the russian Threat. Is the Rest of the West?
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