1/6 ❌ Why russia keeps making unrealistic demands to end the war in Ukraine — and why it can’t afford peace

The truth is simple, but brutal👇 2/6 Why does russia keep making unrealistic demands to end the war in Ukraine?

Because it’s losing. Strategically.

And it can’t afford to end the war because of that. As simple as that.

Map: ISW

1/5 Appeasement doesn’t work on people like Trump

European leaders are repeating the same mistake they made with Putin — and are still making with Xi.

Appeasing aggressive, authoritarian, imperialist leaders doesn’t calm them. It emboldens them 2/5 Authoritarians don’t respect weakness.

They take what’s easy. They test limits.

They respond not to kindness, but to strength.

Putin, Xi, and Trump follow this pattern. Appeasement invites escalation. Firmness earns respect

1/7 Unprovoked — How russia lied to justify its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022

This thread breaks down why both wars were unprovoked — and how russia had to lie to justify them👇 2/7 The 2014 invasion: a war of opportunity, not defense

Ukraine didn’t threaten russia. It was undergoing a democratic revolution — Euromaidan. Putin saw Ukraine slipping away, seized Crimea, and fueled war in Donbas. No NATO threat. No genocide of russian speakers. Just lies

1/10 THREAD: Before the Alaska Talks begin, here are a few facts about the war in Ukraine worth remembering.

russia is failing strategically — despite the immense suffering it continues to cause.

Let’s break down why, after 3.5 years of full-scale war, russia is still losing👇 2/10 russia launched the full-scale invasion convinced Ukraine would collapse.

Its goal: turn Ukraine into a satellite state.

That was the strategic objective in February 2022 — and it still is today.

russia failed the moment Zelensky stayed and Kyiv held

1/6 THREAD: What happens when Trump and Putin sit down in Alaska?

The stakes are enormous. The pressure is real. And the outcomes could reshape the war in Ukraine.

Here are 4 key scenarios — not ranked by likelihood, but all very possible 👇 2/6 Scenario 1: The Gaslight Trap

Trump meet Putin, falls for his gaslighting — maybe even willingly.

He pushes Ukraine to accept an unfair and humiliating deal, possibly just for a ceasefire.

Ukraine refuses.

We are back to square one, with Trump blaming Ukraine again

1/5 THREAD: russia’s breach near Dobropillia — real, risky, and timed for pressure

It’s not a collapse, but it’s not nothing. It’s important to neither under- nor overestimate it.

Here’s why it matters, what it reveals, and what Ukraine must do next 👇 2/5 russia is attacking in multiple directions, willing to take risks and losses to gain leverage before talks.

Ukraine faces command issues, low infantry, poor coordination, limited resources — and a habit of delaying bad news.

That’s how breaches happen

1/5 THREAD: Zelensky is stuck in a brutal dilemma

Trump’s strategy to ”end” the war hasn’t changed in months: pressure Ukraine into a bad deal, offer nothing to deter russia, and call it peace.

It’s not a plan — it’s a trap 2/5 Even if a ceasefire is reached, it won’t last if Ukraine is sidelined. Deals made behind its back will collapse.

Zelensky knows this — but rejecting Trump’s terms could lead to being blamed and cornered

1/10 ALASKA TALKS: What too few are talking about in Ukraine war negotiations

Most of the media focus is on territory and alliances. But deeper, unresolved issues — ones that could make lasting peace nearly impossible — are being ignored by too many.

Let’s break them down👇 2/10 The US seems to be negotiating behind Ukraine’s and Europe’s back. Most media talk is about land and alliances.

But peace isn’t just about maps. It’s about justice, security, and the future of millions of Ukrainians. These issues won’t be easier than land—and won’t go away

1/7 THREAD: What can European countries do to stop Trump from throwing Ukraine under the bus? 2/7 Trump is about to meet Putin in Alaska to negotiate — without Ukraine, and without Europe.

If Europe doesn’t act now, Ukraine could be pressured into a bad deal

1/4 Trump and Putin are negotiating behind Ukraine’s back, and the rumored terms are clearly unacceptable.

This isn’t about peace — it’s about making Ukraine look like the problem. Bad-faith diplomacy.

The good news? The illegally annexed regions are already on the table 2/4 For years, pro-russians claimed those regions were non-negotiable. Now? They’re in play.

Even as Putin drags his feet, the myth of untouchable territory is cracking

1/5 THREAD: Does Trump fear Putin — or is he just a russian asset?

His latest ”10-day deadline” for Putin ends today. And once again: nothing.

How long will we keep pretending Trump’s ultimatums mean anything? 2/5 Trump has gone from ”ending the war before reentering the White House” to ”24 hours,” then ”100 days,” then ”2 more weeks,” then ”50 days,” then ”10 days.”

Every time, he falls for Putin’s delay tactics. Every time, he does nothing

1/11 THREAD: Why peace in Ukraine is impossible in the short run

russia cannot afford a just peace. It is far from achieving its strategic objectives and has made this useless war existential — for Ukraine, and for Putin’s regime 2/11 Putin launched this unprovoked war not just to seize land, but to erase Ukraine’s sovereignty, culture, and history. He’s said it openly. This is a genocidal war. russia has committed war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and mass child abductions. Putin is wanted by the ICC

1/7 THREAD: Ukraine needs to mobilize and recruit more troops

russia is growing its army faster than it’s losing soldiers, adding 9,000 troops every month.

Europe must step up its aid to help Ukraine respond before it’s too late 2/7 russia plans to form 10 new divisions by year’s end. Two are already active.

Despite high casualties, russia’s armed forces keep expanding.

Ukraine must expand its own — but it needs help to do so

1/5 THREAD:

Let’s be honest: Europe has been a terrible ally to Ukraine.

Too little, too late. We’ve let the US lead, looked away hoping the war would end, and failed to act with urgency.

But here’s the good news: it’s not too late to change that 2/5 We have succeeded in some areas — like finding artillery shells and ramping up their production.

That shows we can act when we choose to.

Now we need to replicate that success across the board. No more excuses

1/12 THREAD: Ukraine’s 10 Biggest Successes of the War

From battlefield victories to symbolic blows, Ukraine has defied expectactions and reshaped the war.

Here are 10 of its biggest successes 👇 2/12 🇺🇦 The Defense of Kyiv

Ukraine stopped russia’s elite forces at the gates of its capital.

The defense of Hostomel Airport was crucial.

This shattered Putin’s plan for a quick victory — and proved Ukraine would not fall

1/4 THREAD: The real russophobia comes from Moscow

russia claims to fight ”russophobia” and protect russian speakers in Ukraine. But inside russia? It suppresses minority languages, erases cultures, and enforces aggressive russification.

The hypocrisy is staggering 2/4 From Buryats to Tatars to Chechens, russia has long crushed autonomy, banned native languages, and jailed activists.

Yet it accuses Ukraine of mistreating russian speakers — while doing a million times worse to its own minorities

1/4 THREAD: The solution to end Shahed strikes?

russia’s nightly Shahed drone strikes on Ukraine won’t stop — unless Ukraine gets the right tools.

The solution? Tomahawk cruise missiles.

If Trump wants to save civilian lives and send a real message to Moscow, this is how 👇 2/4 russia’s massive Yelabuga drone factory — where Shaheds are built — is out of range for Ukraine’s Storm Shadow and Neptune cruise missiles.

Drones can reach it, but their payloads are too small, and many get shot down

1/6 THREAD: Why russia is doomed in the long run

russia was already doomed before it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war didn’t cause its decline — it accelerated it.

Demographics, economy, governance — all broken. The future? Bleak 2/6 russia’s population is shrinking fast. Young people are fleeing, birth rates are collapsing, and labor shortages are growing.

It’s a demographic time bomb — and the war made it worse

1/5 THREAD: JD Vance — The man Trump (and the West) should fear most

Vance isn’t just the VP. He’s here to dethrone Trump — and he’s far more radical.

Backed by far-right tech oligarchs, Vance is quietly building a post-Trump empire to reshape America and its role in the world 2/5 Vance’s foreign policy is a gift to Putin.

He’s anti-Ukraine and keeps insulting European allies.

His vision aligns disturbingly with Curtis Yarvin — a theorist who wants to dismantle democracy and replace it with a corporate monarchy.

Vance is Yarvin’s disciple

1/5 THREAD: russia’s empire of chaos

Putinism isn’t about building a future. It’s about burning the present.

russia’s imperialism is fueled by hate, destruction, and fear.

It doesn’t offer progress — only chaos 2/5 Chaos as strategy

russia doesn’t just cause chaos. Chaos is the strategy.

In Ukraine. In Africa. In the West.

Destabilize, divide, destroy.

Because a broken world is easier to control

1/5 THREAD: russia and the culture of hate

Putinism didn’t invent it. It just perfected it.

Modern russian identity is built on enemies, fear, and hate. Hate for Ukraine. Hate for the West. Hate for dissent. Hate for liberalism.

But it’s not just hate — it’s also paranoia 2/5 A culture of paranoia

In russia, enemies are everywhere.

Foreigners. Liberals. Journalists. Historians. Even your neighbor. Even your own thoughts.

This isn’t just propaganda — it’s a system that teaches people to fear and suspect everything