Thread by @_alice_evans

Coupling and Fertility are Falling.

In Finland, Mexico, Peru, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey and the US, both are going down.

Superb column by @jburnmurdoch

A must-read for anyone interested in why fertility is falling, and how to respond.

🧵

From the 1960s, US fertility fell primarily due to fewer births AMONG COUPLES.

In that context, pro-natal bonuses might raise fertility.

But today, the major contributing factor is FEWER COUPLES.

Slurs of "childless cat ladies" usually target female graduates,

But actually the real decline is happening among people with less education.

Coupling is declining in East Asia, Latin America, and most severely in the Middle East and North Africa.

What explains this global trend and regional differences?

This global decline in couple formation perfectly coincides with the rise in smart phones.

2 hypotheses:

1) Phones are distracting, people socialise less

2) Women are 'culturally leapfrogging', exploring new ideas & raising their expectations

ggd.world/publish/post/1…

But why are marriage rates still high in South Asia?

2 hypotheses:

1) Caste & kinship networks are secured through marriage, which remains vital for status and social inclusion. Singledom is stigmatised.

A littany of relatives ask, "When are you getting married?"

2) South Asia has a very large gender gap in mobile phone ownership.

This inhibits women's cultural leapfrogging.

Bravo to the great @jburnmurdoch for demonstrating these global trends and regional differences!!

This is a fantastically important contribution to our understanding of two key issues:

Falling fertility & the rise of singles!

ft.com/content/43e2b4…

@jburnmurdoch Yesterday, @jburnmurdoch and I recorded a podcast in which we discussed all these trends and drivers in far greater depth.

Coming out soon on the @FT's Economics Podcast

Stay tuned 😃

@jburnmurdoch @FT “The Global Rise in Singles”

My piece

ggd.world/p/the-rise-of-…

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