Sminston's Bitcoin Retirement Guide (Part Deux):
Retirement Year
Again helping to answer the question of "How much Bitcoin should I get?"
A thread 🧵👇
. . .
Instructions to use this version:
1) Find the chart in the replies (below) that corresponds to your expected annual living cost (in 2025 dollars) (e.g. $50k/year, $150k/year, etc.).
2) Find the year you expect to retire on the x-axis.
3) Find the colored, curved line (legend for reference) that corresponds to your *Current Age* (if it doesn't have your exact age, find the two closest to your current age and imagine a curved line drawn between them).
3) Trace up the vertical line from your retirement year to a colored line (if the colors don't help, just count the lines - there are only 8 of them).
4) Find where the vertical line of your retirement year meets your Current Age line - then trace this to the y-axis value they meet at. This y-axis value is your "Bitcoin Needed (BTC)" to retire that year. Whether you obtain that Bitcoin today, or in the future, by that date you need that amount of Bitcoin.
. . .
Assumptions are the same as the last Bitcoin Retirement Guide post:
1) Future BTC price is projected by 50th percentile regression power law model.
2) Everyone dies at age 100.
3) Money supply (USD) grows at constant rate of 7%CAGR - meaning, whichever colored line you choose accounts for this 7% inflation from today to your retirement year, and beyond (ex: if you choose $100,000/year, in 2035 that would be about $196,715 - the model accounts for this).
4) The Bitcoin Needed Today amounts represent the minimum amount to prevent your BTC stack from hitting zero by age 100 - this is meant to be a minimum target, and therefore the individual should determine how much additional buffer BTC they should target.
5) Assumes a 'constant withdrawal rate in real 2025 USD terms', meaning the only increase year-year is to offset assumed 7% inflation.
6) Assumes no taxes will exist on withdrawals.
Disclaimers:
*this is NOT financial advice
**this is NOT a suggestion that you should sell your Bitcoin
. . .
$50,000/ year:
$100,000/ year:
$150,000/ year:
$200,000/ year:
$250,000/ year:
$300,000/ year:
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