Thread by @JominiW

1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1064: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction from January 05-22, 2025. #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Andriivka #Vremivka

2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.

3/ Operational Overview: The Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction situation continues deteriorating for OSUV Tavriva. Efforts by OTU Krasnohorivka throughout late December 2024 and early January 2025 failed to hold the defensive line in Kurakhove and along the Sukhi Yaly River Valley. The 29th Guards Combined Arms Army has secured the banks of the Sukhi Yaly River from Uspenivka to the southern approaches of Ulakly.

With the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army seizing control of most of the T05-15 Road and pressuring Ukrainian defenses to the north, there is a real threat to OTU Krasnohorivka ability to break contact and execute an orderly delayed withdrawal along the H-15 Highway and reestablishing a coherent defense within the Andriivka-Oleksiivka fortified conglomerate.

4/ Andriivka-Oleksiivka fortified conglomerate: According to the Russian General Staff, Khrakhove was fully captured by January 6. Nevertheless, a spokesperson from the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group of Forces reported that Ukrainian forces held the western section of the town until at least January 16.

Russian troops moved into Shevchenko, and intense combat continued until January 19, when Russian forces finally gained control over Shevchenko and Slovyanka (southwest of Zorya). Since January 8, the 46th Airmobile Brigade has been defending Dachne and the H-15 highway. Russian troops took Yantarne by January 12, although Ukrainian sources claimed the village did not fall until January 14.

5/ Velyka Novosilka Area: According to Russian sources, by January 6, units of the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army had taken control of Ukrainian strongholds and several positions in the Novy Komar region. By January 11, the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army had captured Neskuchne, a small village southwest of Velyka Novosilka. At the same time, Ukrainian forces were gathering near Novy Komar to launch a counteroffensive aimed at breaking the encirclement of the Velyka Novosilka area.

By mid-January, adverse weather conditions compelled Russian forces to rely solely on infantry assaults, as the environment was not conducive for drones or armored vehicles. On January 15, Russian troops entered Vremivka, and by around January 18, they had fully seized control of the town. As of January 22, Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka are effectively encircled, with local commanders seeking permission to withdraw from the area.

6/ If Ukrainian forces within the Andriivka-Oleksiivka fortified conglomerate become isolated from the defense of Pokrovsk around the same time as Velyka Novosilka is taken, OTU Krasnohorivka may be forced to withdraw west of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and center their defense on Novopavlivka to ensure the continuity of the defense of Pokrovsk to the north and Temyrivka to the south.

These recent Russian successes place the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army in an ideal position to not only seize Velyka Novosilka, but to advance north along the Mokri Yaly River valley, bypassing ZSU fortifications through the natural gap the valley offers. Although withdrawing ZSU forces could defend the river valley gaps, the difficulty OTU Krasnohorivka has in effectively coordinating a multi-brigade defense suggests that the Russians will be able to exploit this operational seam and penetrate the deep rear security area of OUV Donetsk.

7/ This open-source operational summary of the Pokrovsk AO is based on information from the ZSU and VSRF daily operations briefs, various Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels, Western intelligence agencies' public statements, military analysts, and my own professional experience. Any errors in the information and translation presented here are strictly my own, and they will be corrected in the following update.