Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Polemologist, writer, and speaker on all things related to human conflict. Discussions on waging peace, surviving war, and the fate of Mankind.
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Mar 11 15 tweets 4 min read
1/15 🌍 Global Situation Update; Iran war D+11; Russo-Ukrainian War D+1,477; Sudanese Civil War, D+695: The international security architecture is experiencing unprecedented systemic stress. We are witnessing the simultaneous prosecution of industrialized, multi-domain warfare across three distinct geographic theaters. A breakdown of the operational picture: #IranWar2026 #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4 #Sudan 2/ 🇸🇦🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸🇦🇪 Middle East: Operations Epic Fury (U.S.) and Lion's Roar (IDF) have successfully transitioned from the initial shaping phase to sustained operational exploitation. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the U.S. Air Force state that they are currently operating with "full aerial freedom" over Iranian sovereign airspace.
Mar 10 18 tweets 5 min read
1/9 🌍 Global Situation Update; Iran war D+10, Russo-Ukrainian War D+1,476: The international security architecture is facing unprecedented concurrent stress. As of March 10, 2026, the international system is simultaneously managing two high-intensity, theater-level conflicts that have fundamentally fractured the traditional concept of integrated deterrence. Here is a macro-strategic and tactical synthesis of Operations Epic Fury, Lion's Roar, and True Promise IV in the Middle Eastern theater of War and the Ukrainian TVD. #Irán #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4 #UkraineWar #straightofhormuz 2a/9 🇺🇸🇮🇱 Persian Gulf Theater of Operations: Day 11 marks the kinetic zenith of Operations Epic Fury & Lion's Roar thus far. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine confirmed March 10 as the "most intense day of strikes inside Iran". Over 5,000 targets (IRGC HQs, IADS, drone hubs) have been dismantled to date.
Mar 9 21 tweets 6 min read
1/ Global Situation Update; Iran war D+9, Russo-Ukrainian War D+1,475: The Persian Gulf and Ukrainian theaters are currently defined by unprecedented aerospace saturation, high-intensity ground maneuverability, and massive macroeconomic volatility. A thread on the multi-domain kinetic cascade. 🧵 #USIranWar #Epicfury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4 #UkraineWar 2a/ 🇺🇸🇮🇱 Persian Gulf Theater of Operations: The US-Israeli campaign (Epic Fury/Lion's Roar) has entered a grinding, multi-domain attrition phase. The IDF reports launching over 1,600 strike sorties since the operation's inception. Despite this intense bombardment, the Iranian regime's command structure has consolidated.
Mar 9 10 tweets 3 min read
1/10 Global Situation Update; Iran war D+8, Russo-Ukrainian War D+1,474: The international security architecture continues to experience severe stress. High-intensity multi-domain operations across the Middle East (Epic Fury/Lion's Roar/True Promise IV) and Eastern Europe are beginning to strategically converge.
#IranWar2026 #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4 #USIranWar #UkraineRussiaWar 2/10 🇮🇷 Strategic Pivot: Iran's Assembly of Experts has officially named 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. This cements IRGC hardline control and marks the first hereditary transfer of supreme power since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. U.S. President Trump immediately condemned the succession, stating the new leader will not "last long" without U.S. approval.

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Mar 8 10 tweets 3 min read
1/ 🌍 Daily Tactical Update, Iran War D+7, Russo-Ukraine War D+1,473: The global security architecture is fracturing simultaneously across two primary theaters of war. The US-Israeli Coalition continues its air campaign (Epic Fury/Lion's Roar), while it faces an asymmetric Iranian response (True Promise IV), and the Russo-Ukrainian War sees major multi-domain innovations. A thread 🧵
#IranWar #IranIsraelWar #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4 2/ 🇮🇷🇦🇪 Persian Gulf Theater of Operations: Iran's "True Promise IV" reached a critical inflection point today. An Iranian OWA drone penetrated UAE air defenses, striking Dubai Intl Airport (DXB) near Concourse A. Operations were temporarily suspended, which paralyzed Israeli repatriation airlifts. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and the Consulate in Erbil, Iraq, came under drone and rocket attack by Iranian forces.

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Mar 7 7 tweets 2 min read
1/7 Daily Tactical Update, Iran War D+6 / Russo-Ukraine War D+ 1,472: We are observing synchronized, high-intensity multi-domain combat operations across two distinct theaters—the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Here is a brief OSINT and strategic rollup of the last 24 hours. 🧵👇 #IranIsraelUSWar #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromiseIV 2/7 🇮🇷/🇺🇸/🇮🇱 Operations Epic Fury & Lion's Roar: The joint US-Israeli campaign has entered its 7th day. Allied forces have struck a combined 4,500+ targets (over 2,000 US strikes and 2,500 Israeli strikes), establishing near-total air superiority. March 6 kinetic strikes heavily degraded regime infrastructure in Tehran, completely destroying the Diplomatic Police Center and the Azadi Sports Complex.

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Mar 6 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ Iran War Update, D+5: Day 6 of the war with Iran has seen continued regional escalation as the US/Israeli joint offensives-Operations Epic Fury & Lion’s Roar- continue to hammer Iranian defenses and critical infrastructure as the Iranians respond with retaliatory strikes throughout the Middle East as part of Operation True Promise IV. 2/ Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) & Lion’s Roar: Israel: CENTCOM reports the first 100 hours decimated the IRGC’s command structure. The joint operation is heavily targeting Iranian missile depots (U.S.) as the Israeli Air Force continues to target and dismantle Iranian military assets and facilities.

Mar 3 5 tweets 2 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update, Iran War 2026, D+4: No map update today, but will bring you a deep dive soon on tactical and operational developments throughout the region. Concern continues to grow among U.S. lawmakers about the trajectory of the war. Strategic confusion at this critical juncture has the potential to be catastrophic to U.S.-Israeli war aims. 2/ There is a real possibility of the war spiraling out of control if strategic ambiguity persists within the Trump administration.

Mar 3 11 tweets 5 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update, Iran War D+3: Today's brief update focuses on the major events that transpired in the Persian Gulf and the expansion of Iran's Operation True Promise IV.

The Iranian Armed Forces and the remnants of the IRGC continue to expand the scope and scale of Operation True Promise IV. This massive, decentralized retaliatory campaign has fundamentally shifted the conflict from a localized punitive engagement to a macro-regional theater war with global economic implications.

Despite the catastrophic loss of Supreme Leader Khamenei and the near-total eradication of the regime's top-tier political-military leadership, Iran's strategic missile forces continue to demonstrate a highly resilient, pre-programmed, and decentralized decision-making structure.

This operational continuity in the face of decapitation highlights a critical evolution in Iranian military doctrine, deliberately engineered to ensure that retaliation is not dependent on a functioning central command.
#Iran #TruePromise #EpicFury #LionsRoarImage
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2/ The targeting matrix for True Promise IV purposefully and aggressively expanded well beyond Israeli territory to encompass critical military, logistical, and economic infrastructure across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the broader Mediterranean.

The economic warfare component of Iran's strategy immediately bore fruit; global financial markets were thrown into a state of extreme high-alert volatility.

The independent, somewhat isolated operation of the Iranian armed forces from civilian government control—as openly admitted by Iran's Foreign Minister—indicates that True Promise IV is being executed by regional IRGC commanders strictly adhering to pre-established contingency protocols.

The campaign leverages a mathematically calculated saturation strategy in which, despite a high interception rate by allied air defenses, the sheer volume of projectiles guarantees that a percentage will penetrate, causing strategic infrastructure degradation and global economic panic.
#UAE #Kuwait #SaudiArab #Qatar #BahrainImage
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Mar 2 6 tweets 5 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update: Today's update is another brief look at the development of Operations Epic Fury, Lion's Roar, and True Promise IV. The rapid, unprecedented escalation of Operation Epic Fury is already the subject of rigorous analysis by analysts, strategists, and operations researchers. Although still only within the initial 48 hours of the onset of hostilities, the current course of operations reveals a stark, alarming divergence between the tactical military successes celebrated by the allied coalition and the campaign's long-term strategic geopolitical viability.

Over the next two weeks, expect extreme volatility and reactive escalations across all four theaters. In the Middle East, Iran’s surviving Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership will likely decentralize command, pressuring its proxy network—specifically Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen—to launch sustained, asymmetric swarm attacks against U.S. and Israeli assets and commercial shipping. #IranWar #Iran #EpicFury #LionsRoar #TruePromise4Image 2/ Operation Epic Fury, D+1: By 0930 EST 01 MAR, joint operations had reached a staggering operational tempo. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) declared the successful attainment of total air superiority over Iranian airspace, a monumental logistical and tactical achievement that permitted allied aircraft to operate directly above high-value targets in Tehran and beyond without prohibitive interference from Iranian integrated air defense systems (IADS).

This air superiority was likely facilitated by sophisticated, concurrent offensive cyber operations. Operational models suggest that cyber-effects were brought to bear in the initial 48 hours to blind Iranian early-warning radars, disrupt automated launch sequences, and sever the digital connective tissue of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command networks, thereby enabling the kinetic strikes to penetrate unmolested. #EpicFury #IsraeliAirForceImage
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Mar 1 7 tweets 4 min read
1/ Global Strategic Update: The global security environment is currently defined by cascading, interconnected crises that severely strain global stability and reshape the geoeconomic competition between the United States and China. This is a brief update on two of the globe's principal theaters of war, Ukraine and Iran. #UkraineWar #EpicFury #Iran #IsraelImage 2/ Operation Epic Fury: The initiation of "Operation Epic Fury" by the United States Armed Forces, synchronized intimately with the Israel Defense Forces' "Operation Roaring Lion," represents a watershed moment, fundamentally altering the region's balance of power and strategic geometry.
As the battlespace transitions from the initial shock-and-awe decapitation phase into a sustained, high-intensity conflict, the operational environment over the next 72 hours will be characterized by aggressive Allied exploitation operations, decentralized, highly destructive Iranian asymmetric warfare, and severe macroeconomic shocks to the global energy supply chain. #EpicFury #Iran #IranWar #IsraelImage
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Apr 23, 2025 10 tweets 3 min read
“Because sometimes peace is another word for surrender…”

1/ It is a foregone conclusion that, in its current form, the peace process aimed at ending the war in Ukraine has failed. #UkraineRussiaWar Image 2/ With details of his “final offer” already leaked over the Easter weekend, VP JD Vance outlined today during his trip to India the conditions proposed by the Trump administration to bring about an immediate end to hostilities. President Zelensky rejected the main points of the proposal, causing the talks scheduled for today in London between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and delegations from Ukraine, France, and Germany to be canceled. Although lower-level diplomats still met to discuss the technical aspects of implementing and monitoring a ceasefire, there is little expectation that discussions will enhance the likelihood of a ceasefire being brokered anytime soon.
Mar 21, 2025 8 tweets 5 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1121: March 17-18, 2025, was marked by a significant escalation in ground and air operations across multiple fronts. In the north, Ukrainian forces have largely withdrawn from the Kursk region while simultaneously launching a surprise offensive in Russia's Belgorod Oblast.

The Donbas Strategic Direction, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk Fronts, remains heavily contested, with the largest concentration of Russian and Ukrainian forces. In the Southern Strategic Direction, the Russian buildup of forces, which started in December 2024, has now transitioned into a renewed offensive push to the west of Orikhiv. This push is likely to isolate the city and force a Ukrainian withdrawal to the Stepnohirsk-Novopavlivka line.

Air operations have intensified, with Ukraine launching a major drone attack on Russia's Engels airbase, involving 54 drones, while Russia retaliated with massive drone and missile strikes across Ukrainian cities. The naval theater remains relatively quiet.

Diplomatically, discussions around a temporary ceasefire focusing on energy and infrastructure targets are ongoing without concrete resolutions. The conflict continues to have significant economic impacts, exacerbating inflationary pressures and trade disruptions. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with both sides engaged in intense combat operations and strategic maneuvers across multiple regions. #UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #Belgorod #ZaporizhzhiaImage 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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Mar 18, 2025 10 tweets 7 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1119: The period of March 17-18, 2025, was marked by significant Russian territorial gains, particularly in Kursk Oblast. These gains were balanced by continued Ukrainian resistance and offensive capabilities. The high casualty rates and extensive infrastructure damage underscored the war’s continued intensity.

The partial ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure attacks represents a notable diplomatic development, though it falls short of a comprehensive resolution. The strategic landscape remains complex, with both sides maneuvering for military advantage while engaging in high-stakes diplomatic negotiations that will shape the conflict's future and the broader geopolitical environment.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #toretsk #ZaporizhzhiaImage 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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Mar 14, 2025 11 tweets 7 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1114: Fierce combat persisted across the Donbas Strategic Direction, especially north of Chasiv Yar and in the Kostiantynopil regions. Russian troops made attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defensive positions using heavy artillery and infantry assaults but encountered strong resistance, leading to limited territorial advances.

In the Southern Strategic Direction, Ukrainian forces executed precise strikes on Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which disrupted supply lines and hampered Russian artillery effectiveness.

The Northern Strategic Direction saw an uptick in cross-border shelling from Russian forces into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, which led Ukraine to bolster its defensive setups in these areas.

Concurrently, Russian missile and drone attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure continued, with Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepting most incoming threats; however, there was some minor damage to energy facilities in Kyiv and Dnipro.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #SudzhaImage 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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Mar 12, 2025 8 tweets 4 min read
1/ A breakthrough or a deadlock? The Jeddah agreement, reached on March 11, 2025, between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, marks a significant development in efforts to address the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This comprehensive agreement includes a cease-fire proposal and economic terms, with mixed reactions from Russia. As the world watches, all eyes are on Moscow's response. Will this lead to peace or another impasse? Is this the road to Minsk III? Here are the key details:
#UkraineWar #Ceasefire #Geopolitics

x.com/Mylovanov/stat… 2/ Cease-Fire Proposal
The centerpiece of the Jeddah agreement is a U.S.-proposed 30-day cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The main aspects of this cease-fire include:

1. Duration: An immediate, interim period of 30 days that can be extended by mutual agreement.
2. Scope: The ceasefire encompasses the entire front line of the conflict, including aerial and naval operations.
3. Comprehensive coverage: It encompasses all forms of combat, including missile, drone, and bomb attacks.
4. Conditional implementation: The cease-fire depends on Russia's acceptance and simultaneous implementation.

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Feb 25, 2025 25 tweets 15 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1096): February 2025 saw intensifying military operations throughout the Ukrainian TVD, with both sides focusing on strategic air campaigns and continued Russian offensive on multiple fronts. Russia continued its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, targeting energy grids and transportation hubs to disrupt military logistics and civilian morale. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its use of long-range drones and precision missile strikes, hitting Russian oil refineries and logistical hubs deep in Russian territory, including key sites in Belgorod and Kursk.

On the political front, Ukraine secured additional Western military aid, including French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while NATO reaffirmed its support amidst growing concerns about potential escalation. Domestically, Russia faced increasing discontent among its population due to Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while sanctions-induced economic stagnation and logistical strain further challenged its war effort.

Economically, Ukraine struggled with energy shortages caused by continued Russian strikes, but international financial aid and grain export corridors through the Black Sea provided a lifeline. The conflict remains entrenched, with both nations locked in a war of attrition, as neither side achieved decisive breakthroughs on the battlefield or in negotiations. #UkraineWar #Donbass #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #siverekImage 2/ Fourth Year of the War Begins: Today marks a solemn day for Ukraine and the international community. Three years have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced. Three years later, much has changed, but one constant that has remained is the resolve of the Ukrainian people to defy Russian aggression and the conviction of those in the West willing to oppose it. Ukraine has shown the world what Patriots are made of. #SlavaUkraini
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Feb 12, 2025 14 tweets 7 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1083: Today's DTU focuses on actions along the Donetsk Front from 08-11 February, 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #ChasivYar #Toretsk #Pokrovsk #NovyKomar #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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Feb 1, 2025 9 tweets 5 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1073: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Siversk Operational Direction during January 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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Jan 28, 2025 10 tweets 7 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1069: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Southern Donetsk Front from January 22-27, which includes the Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka Operational Directions. #Pokrovsk #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia Image 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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Jan 26, 2025 12 tweets 6 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1067: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Kupyansk Operational Direction from January 5-25, 2025, with some highlights of events in other parts of the TVD. #Kupyansk #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaImage 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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