Jomini of the West Profile picture
Polemologist writer and speaker on all things related to human conflict. Discussions on waging peace, surviving war, and the fate of Humankind
Fellakommando Südost 🇩🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture DA Profile picture eDo Profile picture Sue Strong @strong_sue@mastodon.sdf.org 🇺🇦 Profile picture Daniel O'Donnell Profile picture 279 subscribed
Apr 7, 2023 17 tweets 9 min read
1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines Image 2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. The mud season will continue to impede maneuver, especially in severely restricted terrain. The weather favors small-scale assault forces. Night operations will continue to be difficult.
Feb 22, 2023 14 tweets 8 min read
1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines 2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
Feb 10, 2023 16 tweets 8 min read
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-7 FEB 23. The first week of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive move into full swing as major pushes were made in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The Russians made some gains but Ukrainian defenses held. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines Image 2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). ImageImageImageImage
Feb 1, 2023 13 tweets 9 min read
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines 2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions.
Sep 13, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
1/ UTVD Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in Kharkiv, 10-12 Sep 22. The past 48 hrs continues to see ZSU forces exploiting their breakout from the T2110 Hwy line between Balakliya & Semenivka. The resulting advance has caused the defeat of the SVRF in Kharkiv. Image 2/ The successful liberation of Kupyansk by ZSU forces on 10 September provided the necessary pivot of operations to turn the weak left flank of OGORF-V and attack to seize the decisive geographic points of Velyki Burluk & Vovchansk on 11 September 2022.
Sep 10, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin Image 2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum.
Aug 17, 2022 20 tweets 11 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 159-172. The first half of August has seen an emerging shift in the strategic initiative moving decidedly away from the Russia to that of Ukraine. With fall fast approaching the next several weeks may prove as critical as the early days of the war. #Ukraine Image 2/ I have included a few charts in this thread that address common phrase and acronyms used in the graphics below with their corresponding definitions. This listing will expand as needed. ImageImageImage
Aug 3, 2022 18 tweets 6 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 148-158. The last 10-days of July saw the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF) offensive in northern Donetsk stall while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) make incremental gains in Kherson as they prepare for a counteroffensive. #UkraineRussianWar Image 2/ Weather Outlook. The 10-day Forecast will see temps range from 33-27 C during the day & 18-17 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while 25%-night illumination will aid ZSU infiltration activity. Wind Speed & direction favors SVRF artillery. Image
Jul 24, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ Ukraine SVKO, Day 124-148. Russian Strategic Aerospace Operations (SVKO) remains focused east of the Dnieper River, particularly in north central Donetsk Oblast and along the Black Sea Coast in the Odesa region. #UkraineRussiaWar Image 2/ Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have been conducting an extensive suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) campaign for the past 3-4 weeks here with little results. Air engagements between VKS & Ukrainian fights in the Odesa region has led to minor losses on both sides.
Jul 23, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ Black Sea OTMO, Day 124-148. The Russian blockade of Odesa has been severely degraded as UAF air, artillery, & UCAV pressure (notably the introduction of improved anti-ship missile capabilities like the Harpoon) has loosened the Russian grip on sea lanes of the NW Black Sea. Image 2/ The inability of VKS & SVRF air defense systems to provide an umbrella of protection from Snake Island for VMF vessels against Ukrainian air and maritime forces has also been a decisive factor in freeing the NW Black Sea of a VMF presence.
Jul 22, 2022 13 tweets 4 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 124-148. Late June to mid-July has seen a host of developments throughout the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) have managed to secure the Luhansk Oblast but struggle to produce results on other fronts. Image 2/ Since it has been over three weeks since my last thread, I will be breaking up my normal update over the course of several days. There is a lot of data to analysis and discuss, therefore today’s thread will be a short one on the major events of the past three weeks.
Jun 28, 2022 13 tweets 5 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 108-123. Mid-June has seen the Russian Armed Forces maintain their operational momentum and make important gains in the Donbas while the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to press their counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast. #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar Image 2/ Weather Outlook. The ten-day forecast will see temps range from 32-28 C during the day and 20-15 C at night. Little to know cloud cover favors air & missile strikes, while good night illumination may hamper UAF SOF activity. Wind Speed & direction favors RAF artillery. Image
Jun 11, 2022 25 tweets 9 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 98-107. The first week & a half of June has seen the Russo-Ukrainian War escalate into a deadly attritional phase dominated by artillery duels and positional battles with little major change in the forward edge of the battle area. #UkraineRussianWar Image 2/ Weather Outlook. Forecast for the next ten-days will see an initial 4-day period of thunderstorms in the Donbas that may slow operations in non-urban terrain. Temps will range from 31-14 C with higher humidity. Cloud cover & wind speed will make toss bombing problematic. Image
Jun 1, 2022 25 tweets 9 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 89-97. Intense combat has continued in the Donbas over the past 9 days. Russian forces continue to expand on their breakthrough around Popasna & have captured large parts of Severodonetsk. Ukraine counterattacks in Kherson. #UkraineWar #UkraineRussianWar 2/ Weather Outlook. Forecast for the next ten-days will see periods of thunderstorms and temps between 25-32 C. Russian & Ukrainian forces will likely fight through these periods of poor weather to maintain operational momentum in their favor.
May 24, 2022 25 tweets 7 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 80-88. The past 9 days has seen one of the most fluid periods to date in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The most significant developments have been the surrender of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol & the Russian breakthrough around Popasna. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine 2/ Weather Outlook. Forecast for the next 10 days will see reduced cloud cover with little inclement weather; favorable conditions for air & artillery strikes as well as ground assaults. Wind speed and direction will reduce the effectiveness of artillery strikes in general.
May 14, 2022 25 tweets 9 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 77-79. The past 72 hrs has seen the Ukrainian military press the advantages made by their limited Kharkiv counteroffensive to push Russian forces into the Belgorod Oblast. Russian offensive action along the Siverskyi Donets Line has achieved little success. Image 2/ Weather. Forecast for the next 10 days will see increased rainstorms & cloud cover, severely degrading air & artillery strikes and ground assaults. Wind speed and direction will favor Ukrainian artillery strikes, however. Rainfall will continue to restrict movement to roads. Image
May 11, 2022 22 tweets 7 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 73-76. The past 100 hours has seen the Ukrainian military expand on the initial success of its limited counteroffensive around Kharkiv. Russia’s offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line has generally stalled, with limited successes in Popasna. #UkraineWar Image 2/ Weather Impact. Cloudy skies and frequent rainstorms will degrade air & artillery strikes as well as ground assaults. Increased rain and humidity will make off road movement difficult, while daily temps (15-22 C) will not be hot enough to dry out mud. Image
May 7, 2022 24 tweets 9 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 67-72. The past 6 days has seen Ukrainian forces execute a limited counteroffensive north & northeast of Kharkiv that has produced significant results. Russian forces continue to struggle to gain ground from Izium to Popasna. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine 2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for east Ukraine shows temps (16-24 C) will continue to slowly dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement. However, mud still restricts movement to roads. Rain & cloud cover slightly degrades air & UAV operations.
May 4, 2022 25 tweets 10 min read
1/ Analyzing Breakthrough Operations in the Donbas. Today I take a little closer look at the state of operations along the line of operations ranging from Izium to Popasna in east Ukraine to gain a better understanding of what it will take to achieve a decisive breakthrough. Image 2/ This small study utilizes data, discussions, & insights from the following sources & is indebted to their amazing work: @HN_Schlottman, @TheStudyofWar, @Militarylandnet, @AggregateOsint, @HelloMrBond, @War_Mapper, @KofmanMichael, @dupuyinstitute, among many others.
May 1, 2022 20 tweets 8 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 65-66. The 48hrs has seen Russian forces continue their integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. UKR forces have executed several successful counterattacks around Kharkiv. #WarinUkraine #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine 2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for eastern Ukraine favors Russian offensive operations. Steady higher temps (17-23 C) will continue to dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement. Cloud cover will not degrade VKS sorties or UAV operations.
Apr 29, 2022 25 tweets 8 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 58-64. The past week has seen Russian forces initiate an integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Assaults resume against the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone; UKR forces execute several spoiling attacks. #WarinUkriane 2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for eastern Ukraine favors Russian offensive operations. Partly cloudy skies will not degrade VKS sorties or UAV operations. Higher temps (16-21 C) will start to dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement.