Polemologist, writer, and speaker on all things related to human conflict. Discussions on waging peace, surviving war, and the fate of Humankind.
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Mar 21 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1121: March 17-18, 2025, was marked by a significant escalation in ground and air operations across multiple fronts. In the north, Ukrainian forces have largely withdrawn from the Kursk region while simultaneously launching a surprise offensive in Russia's Belgorod Oblast.
The Donbas Strategic Direction, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk Fronts, remains heavily contested, with the largest concentration of Russian and Ukrainian forces. In the Southern Strategic Direction, the Russian buildup of forces, which started in December 2024, has now transitioned into a renewed offensive push to the west of Orikhiv. This push is likely to isolate the city and force a Ukrainian withdrawal to the Stepnohirsk-Novopavlivka line.
Air operations have intensified, with Ukraine launching a major drone attack on Russia's Engels airbase, involving 54 drones, while Russia retaliated with massive drone and missile strikes across Ukrainian cities. The naval theater remains relatively quiet.
Diplomatically, discussions around a temporary ceasefire focusing on energy and infrastructure targets are ongoing without concrete resolutions. The conflict continues to have significant economic impacts, exacerbating inflationary pressures and trade disruptions. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with both sides engaged in intense combat operations and strategic maneuvers across multiple regions. #UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #Belgorod #Zaporizhzhia2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Mar 18 • 10 tweets • 7 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1119: The period of March 17-18, 2025, was marked by significant Russian territorial gains, particularly in Kursk Oblast. These gains were balanced by continued Ukrainian resistance and offensive capabilities. The high casualty rates and extensive infrastructure damage underscored the war’s continued intensity.
The partial ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure attacks represents a notable diplomatic development, though it falls short of a comprehensive resolution. The strategic landscape remains complex, with both sides maneuvering for military advantage while engaging in high-stakes diplomatic negotiations that will shape the conflict's future and the broader geopolitical environment.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #toretsk #Zaporizhzhia2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Mar 14 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1114: Fierce combat persisted across the Donbas Strategic Direction, especially north of Chasiv Yar and in the Kostiantynopil regions. Russian troops made attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defensive positions using heavy artillery and infantry assaults but encountered strong resistance, leading to limited territorial advances.
In the Southern Strategic Direction, Ukrainian forces executed precise strikes on Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which disrupted supply lines and hampered Russian artillery effectiveness.
The Northern Strategic Direction saw an uptick in cross-border shelling from Russian forces into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, which led Ukraine to bolster its defensive setups in these areas.
Concurrently, Russian missile and drone attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure continued, with Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepting most incoming threats; however, there was some minor damage to energy facilities in Kyiv and Dnipro.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Mar 12 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
1/ A breakthrough or a deadlock? The Jeddah agreement, reached on March 11, 2025, between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, marks a significant development in efforts to address the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This comprehensive agreement includes a cease-fire proposal and economic terms, with mixed reactions from Russia. As the world watches, all eyes are on Moscow's response. Will this lead to peace or another impasse? Is this the road to Minsk III? Here are the key details:
#UkraineWar #Ceasefire #Geopolitics
x.com/Mylovanov/stat…2/ Cease-Fire Proposal
The centerpiece of the Jeddah agreement is a U.S.-proposed 30-day cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The main aspects of this cease-fire include:
1. Duration: An immediate, interim period of 30 days that can be extended by mutual agreement. 2. Scope: The ceasefire encompasses the entire front line of the conflict, including aerial and naval operations. 3. Comprehensive coverage: It encompasses all forms of combat, including missile, drone, and bomb attacks. 4. Conditional implementation: The cease-fire depends on Russia's acceptance and simultaneous implementation.
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1096): February 2025 saw intensifying military operations throughout the Ukrainian TVD, with both sides focusing on strategic air campaigns and continued Russian offensive on multiple fronts. Russia continued its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, targeting energy grids and transportation hubs to disrupt military logistics and civilian morale. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its use of long-range drones and precision missile strikes, hitting Russian oil refineries and logistical hubs deep in Russian territory, including key sites in Belgorod and Kursk.
On the political front, Ukraine secured additional Western military aid, including French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while NATO reaffirmed its support amidst growing concerns about potential escalation. Domestically, Russia faced increasing discontent among its population due to Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while sanctions-induced economic stagnation and logistical strain further challenged its war effort.
Economically, Ukraine struggled with energy shortages caused by continued Russian strikes, but international financial aid and grain export corridors through the Black Sea provided a lifeline. The conflict remains entrenched, with both nations locked in a war of attrition, as neither side achieved decisive breakthroughs on the battlefield or in negotiations. #UkraineWar #Donbass #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #siverek2/ Fourth Year of the War Begins: Today marks a solemn day for Ukraine and the international community. Three years have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced. Three years later, much has changed, but one constant that has remained is the resolve of the Ukrainian people to defy Russian aggression and the conviction of those in the West willing to oppose it. Ukraine has shown the world what Patriots are made of. #SlavaUkraini x.com/ZelenskyyUa/st…
Feb 12 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1083: Today's DTU focuses on actions along the Donetsk Front from 08-11 February, 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #ChasivYar #Toretsk #Pokrovsk #NovyKomar #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Feb 1 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1073: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Siversk Operational Direction during January 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Jan 28 • 10 tweets • 7 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1069: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Southern Donetsk Front from January 22-27, which includes the Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka Operational Directions. #Pokrovsk #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Jan 26 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1067: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Kupyansk Operational Direction from January 5-25, 2025, with some highlights of events in other parts of the TVD. #Kupyansk #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Jan 25 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1066: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Toretsk Area of Operations from January 05-24, 2025, with some highlights of events in Velya Novosilka and in Kursk. #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Kursk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Jan 24 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1065: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Chasiv Yar Operational Direction from January 05-23, 2025, with some highlights of events in Toretsk and a quick update on developments in Pokrovsk and Velya Novosilka. #ChasivYar #Torestsk #VelykaNovosilka #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Jan 23 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1064: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction from January 05-22, 2025. #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Andriivka #Vremivka 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Jan 22 • 12 tweets • 8 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1063: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Pokrovsk Area of Operations from January 05-21, 2025. #Pokrovsk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Myrnohrad #Udachne #Malynivka2 2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Jan 13 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1054: Today's DTU focuses on actions in the Kursk Operational Direction from January 05-12, 2025. #Kursk #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Sudzha 2/ Operational Terms. Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Dec 21, 2024 • 20 tweets • 16 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1030): The situation in the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD) remains challenging for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Since November 28, the ZSU has struggled to stabilize defensive lines in many key sectors along the Strategic Front while effectively managing delaying operations in the critical Pokrovsk-Kurakhove Operational Direction. However, Ukrainian forces have regained lost ground in a few important areas. This thread provides a general overview of events throughout the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD) since late November. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #Siverek2/ Operational Terms. Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
Dec 3, 2024 • 8 tweets • 8 min read
1/ Southern Strategic Direction Update (Day 1013): Today's short update focuses on events in the Southern Operational Direction since November 04, 2024, and the Maritime and Aerospace theaters. The Southern Strategic Direction is now the tertiary SD of the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD). VSRF activity throughout this SD is mostly defensive and has primarily focused on the continued in-depth strengthening of the Surovikin Line.
Elements of the Operational Group of Forces East (OSV Vostok) in the Velyka Novosilka Operational Direction will prioritize offensive actions in coordination with OSV Tsentr to complete the seizure of southern Donetsk Oblast. Operational Group of Forces Dniepr(OSV Dniepr) will continue to conduct limited assaults in the Orihkiv Operational Direction and set conditions for a potential offensive to seize Orihkiv. Russian forces will maintain defense along the Dnipro River in Kherson. The ZSU will continue to rely on deep strike and SSO-U infiltration raids in coordination with Partisans to disrupt and degrade SVRF's capability and capacity to defend Zaporizhzhia and Kherson effectively. The priority of ZSU effort will remain the defense of southern Donetsk Oblast. #UkraineWar #Zaporizhzhia #VelykaNovosilka #Orikhiv #Kherson #Crimea #BlackSea #RussianAirForce2/ Operational Terms. To help you understand the thread's graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (Note: I am still refining and updating this list. Please bear with me as I do. Thank you.)
Nov 28, 2024 • 15 tweets • 13 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1008): The situation in the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action (TVD) remains challenging for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, since November 5, the ZSU has managed to stabilize defensive lines in many key sectors of the Strategic Front while effectively transitioning to a delaying operation in the critical Pokrovsk-Kurakhove Operational Direction. This thread provides a general overview of events in the Northern and Donbas Strategic Directions of the Ukrainian TVD since early November. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #Siverek2/ Operational Terms. To assist in comprehension of the thread's graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (Note: I am still refining and updating this list. Please bear with me as I do. Thank you.)
Nov 5, 2024 • 10 tweets • 8 min read
1/ Election Day in the United States is finally here. The Presidential Race between Republican Candidate, Former President Donald Trump, and Democratic Candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, has been polarizing, to say the least, with anxiety running high for not only Americans but people around the world, on its outcome. Ukrainians likely have the highest amount of anxiety over the outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election, as the winner will almost certainly set the war on a trajectory that will either enable a Ukrainian victory or a capitulation. #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #USAElection2024 #HarrisWalz2024 #TrumpVance2024 #PresidentialElections2/ According to a Bipartisan Policy Center report, an estimated 244 million Americans are eligible to vote. The 2022 mid-term elections saw 161.42 million Americans registered to vote. However, the turnout saw roughly 75 million people vote, or 46.6% of the electorate. By comparison, approximately 158.4 million Americans voted in the 2020 Presidential Election out of 240 million eligible voters (168.3 million registered), a turnout of 66%. According to the New York Times, 78 million Americans have already cast their votes through early voting. Suppose the 2024 election cycle sees at least the same percentages of the electorate participate. In that case, at least 161.04 million people will cast ballots for the 2024 Presidential Election, with possibly roughly 48% of those votes already having been cast through early voting.
Nov 5, 2024 • 13 tweets • 9 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD Daily Tactical Update (DTU) (Day 983): Since Sept 17, the situation in the Ukrainian TVD has deteriorated for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU). As of 04 November 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) retain the strategic initiative and have improved positive operational momentum in the Donbas, specifically throughout the southern Donetsk Oblast. This thread provides a general overview of events since mid-September. #UkraineWar #Donbas #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #Vuhledar #Kurakhove2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
Sep 18, 2024 • 17 tweets • 11 min read
1/ Ukraine TVD, Day 935: As of 16 September, the VSRF retains the strategic initiative and positive operational momentum throughout the Ukrainian TVD. The ZSU continues efforts to expand the Kursk lodgment, with Russian ground forces conducting a counterattack in the Korenevo area. OGV Sever offensive actions, through reduced in scale, maintain the ability to fix a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. In the Donbas elements of the 2GCAA have slowed their advance on Pokrovsk for logistical resupply, with the 201MRD attacking through the operational flank of OSUV Tavriya south of the M30 highway. In Zaporizhzhia, elements of OSV Tsentr and Vostok have renewed offensive action in the Vuhledar area, pressing hard for Bohoiavlenka. The VKS stepped up strikes on Ukraine's energy grid while the PSU continues large drone strikes targeting fuel and energy complex facilities in the Moscow region. #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineWarNews #UkraineFrontLines #RussianArmy #UkraineNeverSurrenders #Russia2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. Weather will not significantly impact ongoing operations. Weather favors offensive action. Courtesy of @davidhelms570
1/ Ukraine TVD, Day 921: As of 02 September, the VSRF retains the strategic initiative and positive operational momentum throughout the Ukrainian TVD. The ZSU continues efforts to expand the Kursk lodgment, with Russian ground forces attempting to push Ukrainian troops from Korenevo. OGV Sever offensive actions, through reduced in scale, maintain the ability to fix a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. In the Donbas elements of the 90GTD, 27GMRD, and 201MRD carry on their advance towards Pokrovsk, with the 201MRD now threatening the operational flank of OSUV Tavriya south of the M30 highway. In Zaporizhzhia, OSV Vostok appears to be preparing for offensive action in the Vuhledararea. The VKS stepped up strikes on Ukraine's energy grid while the PSU conducted a large drone strike targeting fuel and energy complex facilities in the Moscow region. #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineFrontLines #RussianArmy #UkraineNeverSurrenders #Russia2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. Weather will not significantly impact ongoing operations. Weather favors offensive action. Courtesy of @davidhelms570