I spent the last 5 hours reading China's EV growth through technical journals, news reports, and even sketchy Chinese websites(starting from year 2000).
I then read and learned about FAME 1, 2 policies of Indian govt.
How do I sleep now?
To summarize:
1. China started research in battery tech back in year 2000 with universities, scientists and private companies.
2. In 2008, deployed electric buses in Olympics village.
3. In 2012, BYD was leader in electric city/long distance buses and opened a factory in US.
4. 2016, Chinese cities were mostly running electric city buses.
5. 2020, Most vehicles in China are EV.
The reason why we have shortage of buses in our cities is exactly because of our EV policy.
Sad part: It will continue to be so for several more years.
The primary difference between Chinese & Indian EV policy is that China prioritized "Buses" over private vehicles.
The Indian government has extended substantial subsidies to 2, 3, and 4-wheelers, even while buses were also receiving similar support during the same period.
Worst part?
70% of the earmarked funds under FAME-II remain unutilised.
With FAME 1, we added 425 buses
With FAME 2, we added 6862 buses
for the entire country....
Not accounting buses that are retiring.
Minimum number of buses needed for Indian cities is about 2 lakhs.
Here is China.
As of 2023, it has 682,500(about 7 lakh) buses and trolleybuses in operation.
FAME 3 you ask?
Even govt doesn't know.
This was reported back in Sep, 2024.
Its almost Feb 2025 now.
This was announced in Oct 2024, with implementation starting this year.
But, let me know if you hear any news about it.
Because, I haven't. 😑
Then we have PM eBus-Sewa.
We should cheer this right?
No.
Because these 38000 buses will be deployed over 4-5 years, meaning yearly addition of about 8000 buses across the country.
Like I said earlier,
Net addition = New buses - retiring buses.
Even though we may add new EV buses, the fleet size may marginally increase. Your life won't get substantially better.
China's EV journey started in 2000 as seen below.
Notice the steps highlighted.
For FAME II, 7,580 EV charging stations were planned, but only 2,877 were sanctioned and just 14878 are operational 📉
And who is winning the bidding war for city buses in Indian cities?
Of course, it's the Chinese
Image: Mumbai and Bengaluru respectively
But wait, I have some good, and some bad news for you.
First the good news:
For Kolkata, Tata Motors won the contract for city buses!
It defeated BYD by a large margin.
Now for the bad news:
Tata Motors needs Chinese battery tech.
In Sep 2024, the central govt seem to have understood the problem.
It retired FAME 2, and converted it to PM E Drive initiative where no more subsidy would be given to 4 wheelers.
I am still trying to understand why electric 2-wheelers are subsidized?
Why no allocate the entire amount to buying more buses.
When you have more buses, people won't need 2-wheelers that much.
from BBC
Then there are other issues.
1. Slow progress to delays in tender execution
2. Slow bus deployment by original equipment manufacturers.
The e-bus segment managed only a marginal improvement in penetration, rising to 3.5 per cent in 2024 from 3.2 per cent in 2023 - the lowest among all EV categories.
While electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers delivered stronger results.
🤦♂️
This thread just covers 5 percent of what I read, please go and read more on China’s EV strategy starting from early 2000s.. it an absolute eye opener!
They took a risk on EV, involved scientists, students, govt agencies and private players for first 5 years, just on research alone.
A few days ago, India established R&D Hub at CMET Pune.
It comes 25 years after China did it. At best, it is a reactionary. Time will tell if anything substantial comes of it - and when.
devdiscourse.com/article/techno…
Here is a report from WRI India.
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers has said that 100 per cent conversion is possible only by 2047.
New energy vehicle research in China started way back in 1995!
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