HOW CIVIL WARS START: Here's the background on what's happening in the Trump administration right now.
This is the biggest development since the 2020 coup.
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2. Yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed federal agencies to pause all federal grants and loans, and conduct a comprehensive review of all federal financial assistance programs.
This isn't just budget cuts. It's a war over institutional control.
3. Michael Anton, a former deputy national security advisor, has rejoined the Trump administration.
In his 2020 book, The Stakes, Anton describes how left wing elites use federal power and taxpayer dollars to entrench and perpetuate their political dominance.
4. Anton calls for the destruction of the establishment political elite and the formation of a "new elite".
This means taking political action inside key institutions like churches, schools, and even unions to build a "radicalized Middle American consciousness."
5. These themes also appear in the Mandate for Leadership, aka Project 2025:
“Cutting off taxpayer funding to entities that promote woke ideologies should be a priority... Federal resources should not subsidize organizations that undermine foundational American values.”
6. A federal judge yesterday afternoon ruled that the OMB pause was unconstitutional.
While the legality of the OMB pause is in limbo, Trump officials will continue pushing to disrupt the funnels of taxpayer money that fund left wing NGOs. They have to.
7. This is an imperative because these grants and programs are the economic lifeblood of left wing organizing.
It's insidious because you are funding your own cultural demise. Attacking the financial roots is the first step. It has to be done.
8. But this is not simple political warfare.
This is an intra-elite conflict over control of state resources and cultural institutions. There will be a winner and a loser.
This is critical because intra-elite conflict historically leads to civil war and state breakdown.
9. Intra-elite conflict is seen in the lead up to the French Revolution and English Civil War, where the counter-elite faction attacks the elite’s monopoly on power.
It's also seen prior to fragmentation in the late Roman Republic and inter-war Weimar Germany.
10. If the Trump administration is successful, then progressive NGOs will see a reduction in employment, organizing capability, and influence-building through social services.
This is an existential crisis for establishment elites. These are the roots of their power + influence
11. Frankly, success here means another national crisis on the order of 2020, and likely worse.
The bedrock of progressive power is being destroyed. The Left won't sit back and watch it happen.
Historically, these conflicts can escalate and lead to state breakdown.
12. We've previously covered how the left wing response has been pretty toothless so far, albeit we are just over one week in.
But even senior advisors on the Left are questioning what the plan is.
Former Bernie Sanders and AOC staffer, and co-founder of Justice Democrats 👇
13. Here's my guess: the courts will remain the primary battlefield through 2026.
The strategy is to inflict policy losses via lawsuits where they're able, foment popular dissatisfaction against Trump's policy wins, + prepare to win majorities in a big blue wave in the midterms
14. The most dangerous scenario is that progressive elites are unable to grind down and stop the Trump revolution after 2026 midterms, which makes the next two years even more dangerous
We could see something on the order of 2020 again because this is an existential threat /fin
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