I’m seeing people gravely misunderstand the situation.

These protests aren’t what topple governments. Protests this early exist for three reasons:

1. Large national protest mobilizations show Democrats there’s “grassroots” support for hardline political opposition to Trump (optics)

2. They show vulnerable Republicans who support Trump that Dem voter mobilization will unseat them in the midterms (deterrence)

3. Email addresses and phone numbers collected when people sign up for these protests are gonna be pinging in overdrive during early voting going into the midterms. They’ve created basically the single largest Get Out the Vote voter mobilization database in US history.

If Dems don’t win back the House, we’re going to see the protest > resistance phase shift in earnest because they’ll say Republicans stole the midterm elections (via mid-decade redistricting), we have the fascist government they’ve been fearing, and it’s time to take “exceptional risks” heading into 2028.

So, it’s not protesters that topple governments. It’s what comes next in 2028 that does. More to follow on this point, but I’ve already told many of you EXACTLY how it’s going to happen. Also. I’m seeing people not understand how voter turnout works, so I’ll explain.

1. You engage this GOTV Army to register voters likely to vote Democrat. You can’t ask them, so you register at events where your intended voters are, and try not to register Trump voters. Alternatively, you ask MILLIONS of No Kings protesters to ensure all their friends and family get registered to vote. That’s MANY MILLIONS of newly registered voters.

2. Once they register and you have their contact info, you engage them to increase the likelihood they turnout to vote early. You spend money getting these people to the polls. You send texts, knock on their doors… ASK THEIR FRIEND WHO ATTENDED THE NO KINGS EVENTS TO MAKE SURE THESE PEOPLE GO VOTE. Personal touches have the highest likelihood of voter turnout. Seeing a TV political ad or getting a friend to make sure you vote: which do you think is more effective?

3. You get these people to vote early or through mail-in. YOU CAN SEE WHO HASN’T VOTED YET, so you spend money to make sure these people go vote.

This is how you get a massive blue wave in midterm elections.

Now. Whether this materializes is another matter. But Mobilize is sitting on a treasure trove of high propensity Dem voter contact information, which will be used to get out the vote in the midterms.

Most people are severely discounting how important this is.

Here's a quick series of events surrounding this ambush.

In short, based on the number of weapons recovered, it could have been much worse. It sounds like some would-be shooters chickened out.

10:57pm: 10-12 individuals dressed in black begin shooting fireworks towards the Prairieland Detention Center.

10:58pm: 2x unarmed Correctional Officers approach the vandals.

10:59pm: Alvarado Police officers arrive.

10:59pm: 2x shooters engage police officers from about 100-150m, expending 20-30 rounds of 5.56 ammunition from AR platforms. At least one rifle jams, and the two shooting suspects flee to the west.

Shortly after, police apprehend seven suspects in a field west of the shooting positions. Police also find 2x AR-15 style rifles abandoned in a nearby woodline. Some were wearing body armor, carrying weapons, and had radios. A total of 12x sets of ballistic vests are later discovered in the area.

Additionally, a Johnson County Sheriff's Office detective makes a traffic stop and arrests 1x suspect armed with a black pistol, 2x sets of body armor, and 1x ballistic helmet. An additional 2x AR-15s are found in the backseats of the van. The suspect is also carrying a radio (no further information).

(This information is found in the indictment, h/t @wbuppert for the link)

I'll add some additional amplifying information in posts below. By my understanding, police make about 8 arrests within the vicinity of the shooting.

They make another arrest (9) at 2:00am the following day (05 July) in a nearby town. Apparently, this guy fled on foot away from the scene.

On 06 July, it sounds like the FBI had some cell phone intercepts from a suspect who had left her vehicle parked on the street of another suspect, and requested to a co-conspirator that her vehicle be moved. She was concerned about a search warrant being served at the residence.

For the first time in nearly a decade tracking the Far Left, we just witnessed a coordinated, complex ambush by a Far Left direct action cell.

And the media is SILENT on its implications. Here's what you need to know: 🧵👇 1. Last Friday, 8-10 individuals launched fireworks and vandalized an ICE facility in Alvarado, Texas to draw a law enforcement presence.

After a 911 call was made, multiple shooters opened fire, at least one in a nearby treeline, wounding an arriving officer.

I've been catching up on these two shootings in Texas -- one on Friday and another this morning.

Friday night, at least one gunman opened fire on a police officer at an ICE facility in Alvarado.

This morning, another shooting happened outside a CBP facility in McAllen. 1/x We're pretty used to seeing mentally-unstable shooters or lone wolves fueled by personal grievance.

Most shootings like this are the result of a single individual, but Friday's shooting may have been a LOT more significant.

EIGHT suspects were arrested, some in body armor 2/x

Throughout human history, there are only three applications of power:

1. Punishment
2. Reward
3. Belief (Conditioned Power)

There is a SINGLE solitary organization that embodies all three. Like it or not, therein lies the basis of Right Wing power. 🧵👇 The basis of Right Wing power is the Church. It is the root of Right Wing power.

Attempts to build a Right Wing power base outside the Church will fail.

That's why the Left strikes at the root of our moral authority, because without it, we are dis-integrated. 2/x

A quick thread on political power, it's origins, and the differences in its use by the Left and the Right.

Or: what the Left understands about power that the Right does not, which enables the Left to do things that the Right cannot.

🧵👇 It's obvious that the Left has conditioned society to believe that unbridled use of government power towards progressive ends is "muh sacred democracy"

while the conservative use of government power to merely conserve the social and economic order is fascism acskually. 2/x

This Thursday is May Day -- aka International Workers Day -- and historically a day of left wing protests and riots.

We're probably about to see Antifa re-emerge after years of mostly *crickets*.

Here's what I think is about to go down... 🧵🔽 1. Far Left groups like Antifa need a base of support to sustain direct action campaigns.

Post-2021, that base of support evaporated, which is one of the biggest reasons why Far Left street action did, too.

In his latest note to clients, legendary hedge fund manager Howard Marks gave some incredible advice on how to prepare for the end of the world.

Don't.

Here's exactly what he wrote: 🧵🔽 -" we can't confidently predict the end of the world,

- we'd have no idea what to do if we knew the world would end,

- the things we'd do to gird for the end of the world would be disastrous if it didn't end, and

- most of the time the world doesn't end." /2

If you didn't hear about last weekend's protests, it's not your fault.

Turnout was 95% lower than the stated goal.

So is the Trump Resistance 2.0 still on the road to revolution? In short, yes, but that road is still under construction.

Here's what I'm seeing:
🧵👇 1. Organizers reported a national turnout of 3-5 million protestors on Saturday.

And out of the 1 million they wanted in D.C., fewer than 50k showed up. That's about 95% short of what they wanted.

So what do they need to launch a 2020-style popular revolution?

Democrats are stuck.

They have about 18 months to solve a complex problem, and they face an implosion by 2028 if they don't reconcile their fractured base.

Here's why: 1. Do you remember all the "wilderness" talk when Hillary lost in 2016?

Democrats "entered the wilderness" to "soul search" and "discover themselves" and then they decided to nominate a senile old man for president who barely and illegally won the 2020 election,

and also push far left social policies so unpopular with the American People that a Republican won the popular vote for the first time in 20 years in 2024.

On the night of July 14, 1789, King Louis XVI received word that a mob in Paris had seized the Bastille.

Unfazed, he went to bed early despite the pleas of his advisor to take it seriously.

"Is this just a rebellion?" the King asked.

"No, sire. This is a revolution."

A short 🧵on why you should care. 2. After yesterday's thread on intra-elite conflict and where it leads -- state breakdown and civil war -- I read the tired, predictable responses downplaying the risk of a domestic conflict.

Here's what these people don't understand...

HOW CIVIL WARS START: Here's the background on what's happening in the Trump administration right now.

This is the biggest development since the 2020 coup.

🧵 2. Yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed federal agencies to pause all federal grants and loans, and conduct a comprehensive review of all federal financial assistance programs.

This isn't just budget cuts. It's a war over institutional control.

A thread on Far Left riots and insurrection 🧵

A lot of people predicted Far Left / Antifa riots and insurgency if Trump won the November election. Then nothing happened.

Then the riots were coming once Trump was inaugurated. Nothing happened again.

So what did happen? 1/x 2. Before we break this down, kudos to those who got it dead wrong and are now reflecting on why.

As a guy who said there would be no Antifa riots after the election and inauguration, I can explain why nothing happened.

i'm finally digging into this DoD Directive 5240.01, which is an update from 2007.

and, uh, this actually goes way deeper than anyone else is covering. i'll give you part of the cliff's notes:

this directive expressly permits defense intelligence components to conduct covert activities inside the united states -- under title 50 authorization -- if approved by president biden.

Can you imagine a foreign-backed ethno-nationalist group attempting to establish a separatist homeland in the Southern U.S.?

And NOT hearing about it in the media?

Well, do I have a story for you.

🧵👇 Officials from the U.S.-based Provisional Government of the Republic of New Afrika (PG-RNA) are seeking diplomatic recognition with Burkina Faso, a junta-run West African country.

for those who missed it last week, the A15 "day of action" is just the latest iteration from groups also involved in 2020.

as paul harvey would say, here's the rest of the story...

🧵👇 A15 is actually a reprise of efforts from antifa and the far left revolutionary class we saw in 2020.

these activists and militants were making plans to oust then-President Donald Trump if he stayed in office.

retard

https://twitter.com/jerrycurld/status/1769926515922550873

“the right of the people” does not apply to illegals since they are not “the people” the founders referred to.

i am ashamed to have ever been a libertarian.

Is state breakdown on the American horizon?

I ask earnestly because we know the early warning indicators.

State breakdown is when a government loses the capacity, authority, and/or legitimacy to govern, typically due to an internal crisis (or many crises).

👇🧵 There's one major early warning indicator and, of all places, Politico inadvertently identified it this morning in an article about Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH). /2

On the importance of social clubs

During the Algerian insurgency and war for independence, the communist FLN set up social groups across the country -- everything from soccer clubs and youth groups to women's committees, farmers organizations, workers' councils, etc. /1 FLN cadres recruited leaders for the groups who were responsible for instilling pro-socialist and pro-independence ideology (and most importantly, anti-french sentiments).

in addition to creating social power, the FLN used these groups as intelligence collectors who would pass on information about french military movements and civil activities, as well as french sympathizers. /2

Speaking of tunnels, I just read an incredible report that details how the U.S. army formalized anti-tunnel warfare in Vietnam.

I'll share some excerpts in this thread. 1. The U.S. Army had a rough go with fighting the Viet Cong's tunnel warfare strategy.

In many cases, VC would hide for three days in these jungle holes, coming out only to ambush U.S. patrols.

They were so well-hidden that soldiers would often walk right over them.

is patriot front really "all feds" ?

i guess if the first time you heard about patriot front was 2022, then i can see why you say they're all feds.

but it's wrong, and i'll explain why.

👇 i had run-ins with patriot front and associated groups in the dallas area and austin, circa 2017-2019.

i'm sure there are some federal informants and undercovers in that org (will get to this in a minute)

but i also know there are angry white kids drawn to that movement, which is the point.

there are fascist groups in the united states.

it's okay to admit that.