for those who missed it last week, the A15 "day of action" is just the latest iteration from groups also involved in 2020.

as paul harvey would say, here's the rest of the story...

🧵👇 A15 is actually a reprise of efforts from antifa and the far left revolutionary class we saw in 2020.

these activists and militants were making plans to oust then-President Donald Trump if he stayed in office.

retard

https://twitter.com/jerrycurld/status/1769926515922550873

“the right of the people” does not apply to illegals since they are not “the people” the founders referred to.

i am ashamed to have ever been a libertarian.

Is state breakdown on the American horizon?

I ask earnestly because we know the early warning indicators.

State breakdown is when a government loses the capacity, authority, and/or legitimacy to govern, typically due to an internal crisis (or many crises).

👇🧵 There's one major early warning indicator and, of all places, Politico inadvertently identified it this morning in an article about Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH). /2

On the importance of social clubs

During the Algerian insurgency and war for independence, the communist FLN set up social groups across the country -- everything from soccer clubs and youth groups to women's committees, farmers organizations, workers' councils, etc. /1 FLN cadres recruited leaders for the groups who were responsible for instilling pro-socialist and pro-independence ideology (and most importantly, anti-french sentiments).

in addition to creating social power, the FLN used these groups as intelligence collectors who would pass on information about french military movements and civil activities, as well as french sympathizers. /2

Speaking of tunnels, I just read an incredible report that details how the U.S. army formalized anti-tunnel warfare in Vietnam.

I'll share some excerpts in this thread. 1. The U.S. Army had a rough go with fighting the Viet Cong's tunnel warfare strategy.

In many cases, VC would hide for three days in these jungle holes, coming out only to ambush U.S. patrols.

They were so well-hidden that soldiers would often walk right over them.

is patriot front really "all feds" ?

i guess if the first time you heard about patriot front was 2022, then i can see why you say they're all feds.

but it's wrong, and i'll explain why.

👇 i had run-ins with patriot front and associated groups in the dallas area and austin, circa 2017-2019.

i'm sure there are some federal informants and undercovers in that org (will get to this in a minute)

but i also know there are angry white kids drawn to that movement, which is the point.

there are fascist groups in the united states.

it's okay to admit that.

I just finished reading the RICO indictment against 61 left wing activists/militants, some of whom are charged with domestic terrorism.

Here's what you need to know: 1. The 110-page indictment spends several pages on the tenets of radical anarchism: collectivism, mutual aid, social solidarity, and violence.

The description of anarchist violence is pretty milquetoast: political violence is justified due to government oppression

The grandfather father of communist guerrillas the world over -- Mao -- emphasized that small revolutionary movements can achieve victory through strategically protracted war.

📚 A thread on Leftist Revolutionary Strategy 1/x Maoist revolutionary warfare has 4 phases:

1️⃣ Organization
2️⃣ Terrorism
3️⃣ Guerrilla Warfare
4️⃣ Mobile Warfare

Let's delve into each phase. 2/x

A short 🧵 on social cohesion, and how it can be developed or destroyed.

1. Social groups such as ethnic, racial, or religious groups tend to build greater social cohesion when attacked or threatened by external "other" groups (Coser 1956).

But that's not a hard rule. 2. External threats against ethnic, racial, or religious groups can cause greater social cohesion...

but threats can also BREAK social cohesion.

According to Coser's research, social consensus will determine how a group responds to a threat.

Sometimes I see people (who should know better) poo-poo small, domestic radical or revolutionary groups, as if they're incapable of growing.

Algeria's FLN revolutionaries went from 2,000 fighters in 1954 to 130,000 /during/ eight years of fighting the French.

1/3 This is not to mention the other support gained along the way.

In addition to gaining the support of large numbers of Algerian Muslims, the FLN had /opposing/ nationalist groups fall in under the their banner.

Like a snowball rolling downhill. 2/3

This week marks a turning point in my career.

I'll be stepping away from the DailySA at Forward Observer to focus full-time on two projects, which I'll describe below.

If you want to stay up to date with what I'm doing, I'll be writing about it here:

grayzoneactivity.com/dispatch First, some of you will remember an intelligence report I wrote from ~2016-2020 called Alt-Observer, where I tracked far left and far right groups.

I'll be bringing that back under a new name in anticipation of events surrounding the 2024 election and beyond. 2/4

Violent social movements, terrorism, and popular revolutions are examples of Low Intensity Conflict -- things that are happening in the United States today. And getting worse.

Give me five minutes and I'll show you a strategy that can help us push back and win.

A thread: The current LIC started in 2011 with Occupy Wall Street and class warfare driven by the Obama admin.

Worsened in 2016-2017+ as these groups reactivated under another banner.

Hit a high water mark in 2020 with Floyd's Rebellion.

And could top that in 2024-2025 and 2028-29. /2

Alright, I need a break from reading The Road. Something less depressing, so here's a thread on what I find on Russian language social media: 1. At 1515 US Central time, it's now 2315 Ukraine time (11pm). Russians are expecting heavier bombardment of Ukrainian positions overnight and are waiting to see morning footage of Uke defensive positions after overnight rocket (MLRS) attacks.

A 5-point summary of the Ukraine-Russia war so far...

1. Russia has committed 50% of their total force, as of yesterday. Still looking at updated numbers. 2. Russian advances on two fronts slowed by miscommunication and tactical errors (C3), predominantly support units separating from combat units.

Russian Assessment from Day 3
- RF military cmdrs/MoD blamed their lack of progress (eg, stalled offensive on eastern flank) on attempts at dialogue with Zelensky
- Believe Zelenksy's offer of dialogue was meant to slow Russian advance, while Uke military dug into Kiev

1/x - RF mil was further slowed by attempts to stabilize Zaporozhye
- Afterwards, columns advanced on Mariupol and continue to clear and occupy territory to the north
- Hwy 14 east of Mariupol remains in control of Ukraine military
- A new assault is expected in the morning

2/x

Analysts on Russian social media are asking why
- Ukrainian defensive positions haven't been destroyed by missiles and UAVs
- the Ukrainian defense headquartes hasn't been destroyed
- Russian electronic warfare isn't working
- Russia is taking "unnecessary losses" Another channel is complaining about the lack of air power and asks why Russia has not achieved air superiority yet.

Definitely a feeling on their side like this should be going better and moving faster for the Russians.

Both channels say there will be accountability for this.

With all that's happening in Ukraine, don't forget that for most of us, Ukraine is noting more than a distraction from our own problems that still need to be solved.

Your understanding of the situation in Ukraine has no bearing on your current situation here. Don't lose focus. The time you spend doom scrolling the Ukraine war goes into a black hole that you can never get back.

That's time you're not spending with your family, building your business, developing your community, and preparing for this decade.

Watch @fo_intel for updates instead.

Twitter Experts never cease to amaze. For them, and us, let's cover some intelligence ground rules.

A thread on basic analytic tradecraft.

/1 1. It's okay to admit you don't know something.

It's called an intel gap. There will be more things you don't know than you do know.

Identify facts and separate your assumptions. Never confuse the two. /2

The United States is in the most precarious position probably ever.

Our is an empire in decline geopolitically, diplomatically, culturally, militarily, economically, monetarily.

If you're not preparing for another catastrophic failure somewhere this year, you really need to be The funny thing about decline is that it's relative.

Are our economic power and military capabilities shrinking?

No, but they're in decline relative to the rise of other countries.

Huntington had a lot to say about this in Clash of Civilizations (1996).

Re: Civil War 2 and the general topic of insurgency and revolution, I'll offer a red team perspective: auxiliary police and regroupment.

A thread. I'm not saying any of this WILL happen on U.S. soil, but it will absolutely remain an option in some places.

The French and British both made heavy use of auxiliary police units during the insurgencies in Algeria, Indochina, and Malaya, among other places. 1/5

Modu Chonyu founded the Xiongnu Empire, a confederation of nomadic raider tribes than pillaged northern China during the Qin and Han Dynasties. A thread on collapse. 1/x

https://twitter.com/grayzonewarlord/status/1422408062233628676

The Hans sued for peace with the Xiongnu Confederation, but the peace became increasingly expensive. Too much silk, too many Han princesses, etc. So the Hans hatched a plan to defeat the Xiongnu by baiting its mounted armies into a trap. 2/x