🧵Monthly economic review, through the Jan '25 data, Biden's last month. First, we added a decent 143,000 jobs in January. We're up about 6.7 million jobs from the pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022, and 16.1 million vs. Biden start. 1/
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
The monthly job creation rate had been fading, but surged in the past 3 months to a robust 237,000 average. This was after benchmark revisions, done routinely each year. 2/
No matter how you slice it, job creation under Biden was faster than Trump, even comparing Trump pre-pandemic (180k/mo) to Biden post-recovery (217k/mo). 3/
We added about 2 million jobs in 2024, even after minor benchmark adjustments of 236k total. 4/
Some general background on the unemployment rate before we dive in: 5/
The unemployment rate fell from 6.4% when Biden started to 4.0%. It fell as low as 3.4%. 6/
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
Using annual averages, we had a 3.6% unemployment rate in both 2022 and 2023, the lowest since 1969. Even excluding pandemic-distorted years of 2020 and 2021, Biden still had a lower average than Trump. 7/
In fact, Biden had the lowest unemployment on average among the last 14 presidents, at 4.1%. 8/
Tucked away in the Household Survey was a big surprise, a 2.2 million increase in the number employed. This was a catch-up mainly due to immigrants, which were undercounted in the population data for much of the past two years. 9/
This brings the two surveys in the monthly jobs report into closer alignment. The Household Survey (employed) is up about 3.3% vs. pre-pandemic, while the Establishment Survey (jobs) is up 4.5%. 10/
The employment to population ratio for age 25-54 is one of the best measures of participation, as it removes the downward bias of an aging country present in the age 16+ figures. The number has been better than pre-pandemic most months since February 2023. 11/
Biden finished with a strong 3.0% real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth rate, slightly better than Trump pre-pandemic. Recall that GDP had regained its pre-pandemic peak by Q1 '21 when Biden started. This is an overall growth measure for production & income. 12/
Immigrants contributed significantly to this growth, filling millions of job openings. CBO estimates the Biden Surge will add $65,000 per household to income ($9T GDP) over a decade, while reducing the deficit by $1 trillion. 13/
cbo.gov/publication/60…
Millions voted to make America poorer by blocking immigrants, often rationalizing their vote by believing immigrants are a net cost, which is false. Local and state governments do incur costs, but these are tiny vs. benefits. Uncle Sam should reimburse them for those costs. 14/
Hourly wages have outgrown inflation, if Feb '20 pre-pandemic is the starting point. While paying higher prices is unpleasant, in economic terms since wages have grown more, stuff is actually MORE affordable than 2019. 15/
CBO: Incomes have outgrown inflation, resulting in more purchasing power in 2023 vs. 2019. You could buy in 2023 what you bought in 2019, but with a smaller share of your 2023 income. This applied across the income distribution, to rich and poor. 16/
cbo.gov/publication/60…
In fact, Biden had the highest real (inflation-adjusted) wages or purchasing power on average vs. the last 11 presidents. 17/
To put the overall situation in context, this graph shows the real (inflation-adjusted) hourly wage and the unemployment rate, annual averages 1964-2024. Note how the Biden numbers are all in the upper left corner, where we want to be. 18/
Remember that the economy does far better under Democrats. The graph shows how the unemployment rate and budget deficit as % GDP tend to fall under Democrats, while rising under Republicans. 10 of the last 11 recessions started under Republicans. 19/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._econ…
One of the best things Democrats can do is develop an economic strategy and a mission statement, the reason why the party exists in terms of what value it will deliver to voters. Republicans should never poll better on the economy. Here are some ideas. 20/
In summary, we're in far better shape economically than pre-pandemic. The main measures of household prosperity outgrew inflation significantly. Until next month...spread the word! 21/END
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…
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