Are We On The Brink Of A Construction Industry Disaster? What If Home Building Is Stalled For YEARS
Been talking to many Industry people on the Developer side & this complete crash in Ontario Home Building is looking worse every week
Because it's likely to be a long time
2/
Before Residential Construction restarts
When does it get better?
Fastest recovery estimate I have heard is Mid 2027
Many say 2028, a few pessimists suggest 2030
Holy Crap, that's really bad
Let's get specific:
This is about real construction starts: digging a hole
3/
To pour the concrete forms for the Low-Rise Home or digging down to start the Hi-Rise Tower
For Low-Rise Home Purchasers that process ended in Ontario about 20 months ago
About the same for Hi-Rise
Purpose Built Rentals have had some starts in the last 2 years
4/
But with changes in the CMHC Select Program last year Rental starts have now dramatically reduced
Oh, and did I mention there are effectively zero new Office Buildings getting started & new Retail Development is almost non-existent
Some Logistics / Distribution but slowing
5/
Government is still building because Tax Payers money is infinite
But it will restart eventually, even if immigration is slowed greatly & new people entering Canada is super low, that clears up & New Canadians at some higher levels will start coming again in 2027
6/
Therefore 2028 - 2029 will need new homes
Sounds insane right? Canada with a Housing Crisis stops building in the biggest province
But economics control building & today they don't work
Let's all understand just how bad this is for the Construction Workforce
It's Horrible
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