Canadian Job Numbers All BAD News & The Worst Part: It's Just The Beginning

Unemployment Rate rises to 6.4% with negative job creation

Should we assume it will get worse? Yeah, we absolutely must assume that

Maybe much worse: right up to over 8%

What could make it better?

2/ The only truly dynamic force for new jobs in Canada is Government

For the last few years all levels of Government has been hiring enthusiastically

On the private side what sectors will likely keep shedding jobs:

Financials - layoffs will continue to trickle along

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New Home Construction Grinds To A Halt In Ontario: How Bad Is It? BAD

New Condo Starts in the GTA are down 75% in May an unprecedented drop & Low-Rise (Single Family, Semi's, Towns) are down 65%

This will get worse as 2024 progresses

Let's talk about all of Canada

2/ Canada, in the midst of a Housing Crisis will likely see the New Builds in 2025 fall below 170K annually

That's 50K less than this year & compared to the pledge of Governments at all levels of 500K New Homes per year represents a mind bending disaster

This stuff is WILD

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Don't Be Fooled By Reports That Housing Starts Are Going Up: Starts For Houses TO BUY Are Plunging

CMHC produced a recent report that New Home Starts are having a strong year

They don't tell you that 2024 is likely the biggest year for Purpose Built Rentals in decades

2/ The Federal Government through CMHC & the Housing Accelerator Fund has encouraged Multi-family Rental Development in the biggest surge since the 80's

Government got out of any involvement in Rental Development 35 years ago & have just returned to it in the last few years

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Death Of A Mortgage Con Artist: If Criminals Get Away With Stealing Millions There Can Be Horrible Results

A Triple Shooting left 3 dead & made National News as a daycare in the same building as the shooting was locked down

A Mortgage Investment Fraudster is at the center

2/ Arash Missaghi & 2 others died in what reporters speculate was a murder suicide as a fraud victim felt driven to make an awful mistake

Missaghi had long ago lost his Mortgage Licence as a series of frauds surfaces dating back to 2014

Missaghi was criminally charged
& sued

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Will Canada Have It's Own 2008 USA Mortgage Meltdown: NO But A Bumpy Ride Ahead

Most people don't understand the 2008 Mortgage Crisis in the USA

Here's the truth: it was a Mortgage Underwriting / Bond Rating Disaster

Imagine Banks providing mortgages to unemployed people

2/ That was just one part: unemployed people with poor FICO scores and give a mortgage to 100% of the house value

Yeah, that's what they were doing

Oh & Bond Rating companies gave that junk debt an investment grade rating

How? It would take too long to explain

Not Canada

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Municipal Governments Do So Much To Screw New Home Buyers But It's Hidden So They Get Away With It

Let's start with the lie that City & Municipal Governments tell about Development Charges on new home builds

They tell everyone that Developers pay these fees

That's a Lie

2/ No Developer or Builder ever actually paid those charges: the New Home Buyer paid them, the Developer was just the conduit for the New Home Buyers money

Because the Builder just adds the Development Charges to the Purchase price

Yet politicians just repeat the lie ENDLESSLY

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What Happens If A New Construction Condo Building Finishes & No One Takes Possession Of The Units They Bought?

Actually there's no chance NO ONE can take possession, some people are paying cash & some people are very well qualified for a mortgage

Some people can close

2/ But what if only 175 buyers in a 350 unit building are actually willing & able to take possession

What if the other 175 say: Keep my deposit from 6 years ago I CANNOT take possession?

What happens next?

Unless the Developer can get financing on the unclaimed 175 units

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Bank of Canada CUTS RATE: Tiff Macklem Faces The Stark Reality Of A Canadian Economy Headed For The Crapper

The BoC Governor made the expected move & cut the bank's key Lending Rate by 25 bps

The "Why" is easy: the Canadian economy particularly in Central Canada is slowing

2/ The point of raising BoC Rate from 0.25% to 5%: the fastest increases in Canadian history was to force inflation back to target by seriously damaging the economy to the point people are buying far less & prices deteriorate because of falling demand

Mission Accomplished!

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What's Going On With Mortgage Rates? It's NOT What We Expected

Since the first Bank of Canada Rate Cut is on the horizon for sometime this year

If this was a normal environment for Fixed Mortgage Rates we should see a gradual drop in Rates starting now but we DON'T

2/ What's Different? Mainly the Bond Buying environment

Mortgage Rates are based on Bond Yields which are in turn based on the Buying & Selling of Canada Government Bonds

Because Canada is a mouse living next door to the elephant of the USA our Bond Trades feel US influence

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This Is God Awful: But We Have To Shrug & Look Away Because We Feel Powerless

The ArriveScam Scandal just keeps getting worse but because we know we can't do anything we just move on

It hurts to think a few dirty bastards have robbed $1B from all of us

But we're helpless

2/

https://twitter.com/RobertFife/status/1790050881141965306

We are one of the highest taxed populations on Earth but a huge reason for those massive taxes is our money is wasted or STOLEN

NOTHING has happened to this gang of evil doers

It's blatantly obvious Canadians have been ripped off by this small group of Government Insiders

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Are The Prices Of Tiny Rental Condos DOOMED In Toronto? Likely They Are

Let's break it down:

Possibly the worst news is how many sub-500 sqft Shoe Box Condos are scheduled for completion in the next 3 years in the GTA & downtown Toronto in particular

Truly massive numbers

2/ All those Construction Crane Records we hear about in Toronto are building Condos & the majority of the units are very small

And sold at increasingly higher prices

The history of Pre-Con Condo Prices was an infinite spiral UP as buyers gladly grabbed up new project starts

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Just How Bad Will The Lack Of New Low Rise Homes Be In 2 Years? REALLY BAD

The math is inescapable: New Construction Starts of all homes to buy (Rental Projects are happening) flat-linned in Ontario & BC but Low Rise had already dropped to less than 25% of new builds

2/ For the last few years the building of Low Rise has fallen off for a number of reasons: land costs is extremely high, uncertainty of final materials costs, a huge chunk of final price was Development Fees & Taxes & likely the most important reason: Hi-Rise was more profitable

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How Bad Is It In New Home Starts In BC & Ontario: Really Bad

To be clear: Homes to BUY

We are experiencing a boom in Purpose Built Rentals like we haven't seen for 35 years

Government has made many moves on tax relief & aggressive financing that makes Rentals attractive

2/ And there is nothing wrong with building rental units: it's smart & important

Much of Ontario & BC's rental stock is old & tired all of these new units are needed & welcome

And rental rates are way too high, the only solution is much more supply

How about homes to buy?

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Everyone In Canada Should Watch This Video: Why Virtually Every Grant From All Levels Of Government To Business Is A Scam Or In This Case Graft

Your Tax Dollars

The Video is an incredibly damning indictment of Graft, Corruption & by all appearances a BC Government cover up

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https://twitter.com/jenniferelle_/status/1776469433055150094

I believe every word that Chace is saying, it all rings true particularly since the company I work for has & observed similar things in mortgages

The totally rigged & endless waste of money that is the government grants business

Particularly in all things Tech

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One True Thing: Young Canadians Want To Own Their Own Homes

Not as an investment
Not to flip
Not as a source of leverage

Just to live in & raise a family

And if they see that idea as hopeless they will be pissed off & no one should wonder why they're mad

Let's be clear

2/ Young people understand that 25 years ago in most Big Cities in Canada average houses cost between 2.5X & 3.5X average income & most couples could buy one

They also understand that in many cities in Canada that's now 4.5X to 10X average family income

Massively harder to do

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This Video Is Ridiculously FALSE

I Believe The Housing Minister is an intelligent, well intentioned person

Virtually every word is false with the possible exception of "and" & "the"

The falsehoods:

1) Millions of Renters want to buy homes..... except they're unaffordable

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https://twitter.com/SeanFraserMP/status/1773093178674921849

Nothing about tracking Rental Payments will reduce houses prices to the point average Renters can produce enough down payment or pass the Stress Test

2) OSFI the Government's own Bank Regulator insists Borrowers have provable acceptable Credit History how could anyone

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Is The Golden Era Of Real Estate Rental Investment Finally Hitting A Wall?

There are signs & portents, some immediate some long-term

Since 2004 the success of Investors buying Rentals was pretty much a SURE THING

RE Values went straight up, vacancies were very low

2/ Rental rates went up, Mortgage Rates were ridiculously low & mortgage credit plentiful

Even Covid which should have been an unmanageable disaster for Landlords was short-lived & Government provided a ton of support

After Covid Property Values & Rents soared

Perfect really

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OSFI The Canadian Bank Regulator Wants To Add Another Layer Of Difficulty To Getting A Bank Mortgage

To simplify: the Regulator wants to test mortgage lending at 4.5X income on a Portfolio basis

NOT on individuals like the Stress Test applies to each individual mortgage

2/ This Income versus Mortgage Amount Test looks at each bank's book of mortgages to determine if the book has over leveraged borrowers

CMHC mortgages are excluded because the Government backs those & there are exceptions for asset rich borrowers

Sounds prudent right?

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The Craziest Thing In My Life: Canada's Change To Hating Resource Extraction

As kid in school 55 years ago I was taught how lucky I was to live in a country with vast natural resources that would make Canada wealthy

Now it looks like we are supposed to try to avoid it

2/ I don't believe any child today is taught that the path to our country's success stems from Energy, Mining, Forestry, Agriculture

I think almost no young person is ever pointed at a career in any of those fields

From an economic point of view that's just completely insane

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5% Real Estate Commissions In The USA Are FINISHED: Canada Next? Not So Fast

The decision by the National Association of Realtors in response to $1.8B in lawsuit claims means that Buyer's RE Agents can no longer be paid any of the Seller RE Agents commissions

BIG change

2/ The foundation of the RE Sales Industry in North America had been the sharing of the Seller's commission with Buyer's Agents

Home buyer's always had the feeling their RE Agent's service was FREE. Of course they weren't they were just added to the house price the Buyer paid

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COPS: Just Leave Your Car Keys Where The Thieves Can Find Them: Sounds Insane? But Cops Know The Truth

This story has been making the rounds on X

Sounds crazy? Make it easier to steal the car so people aren't hurt in Home Invasions

But Cops know there's no fix for this

2/ Cops know the thieves who are caught are out on Bail in 3 or 5 days

Cops know until the stolen cars being effortlessly shipped out of Port of Montreal are STOPPED this massive Car Theft will keep going because it's too profitable

Cops know the true danger of Home Invasion

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