Brampton House Prices Down 31% From Peak: Will It Go Lower? Why Did It Happen?

The TRREB system says Brampton house prices have fallen 31% from Feb 2022 to October 2025

$1.346M to $934K

That's a shit ton of losses, likely another 10% to 15% more to go

WTF Happened?

2/ Power Of Sales Happened

Lenders are taking alot of homes from Borrowers who cannot make mortgage payments & those homes need to be sold FAST

Why so fast?

Because lenders, half of them Private or Alternative Lenders (not banks) need the money back

And don't have a choice

3/

New Home Construction Collapses In GTA: Very Simple Reason

If every New Construction Home on offer is substantially more expensive than similar Resale Homes so who the hell is buying the New Construction Home

Not just a bit more expensive: 10%, 15% or 20% more expensive

2/ And not just the GTA, all across Ontario

Who is going to pay $1075 a sqft for a Pre-construction Condo if there is massive supply of almost new Resale Condos at $900 a sqft & if you just want until 2026 it's $850 a sqft

And that's just 416

Let's check out other cities

3/

Ontario Real Estate Market Gets Better Next Year? NOPE Time For A History Lesson

I was around for the last Ontario RE Bubble

History doesn't really repeat itself & nothing is ever a perfect duplicate

But... Similarities are startling

1990 the raging Ontario Market STOPPED

2/ House prices fell & kept falling for years 1996 is generally agreed as the year prices stopped falling

The Ontario Real Estate Market peaked in February 2022

Apply the same calculations: recovery begins 2028

NOT 2026

Let's consider the key factors that continue to drag RE

3/

Is The Certainty Of Property Ownership In Danger In British Columbia? MAYBE

The recent BC Cowitchan Band Court Settlement may have turned over ownership of part of Richmond BC to the Aboriginal Band

Is it a done deal? Will people lose their homes? Because it's possible

2/ I am not digging into the Politics on this one although there a lot Politics.

Not going to go on a rant about judges although its obviously a problem

But last week City Of Richmond said that Homeowners may have a problem with Title

And that's HUGE

Land title is Gravity

3/

Will Ontario House Prices Keep Going DOWN This Year? YES And What About Next Year? Likely YES

Lot's of good private technical analysis being done on this question lately that never gets to the public

I had a chance to review one report & its pretty damn alarming

2/ Worst case outcome was ANOTHER 2O% DROP from today's prices

Since average Ontario price is already down 25% from the March 2022 all time high the new number would be a wild 45% decline

This analysis used some fairly dark assumptions but none of the key inputs were outliers

3/

Mortgage Rates Headed Down: What's The Best Move?

Canada Bond Yields have dropped: 5 - Yr Yields more than 6% down in just a week: 3 - Yr Yields down over 8% on the month

And Mortgage Rates have come down: Scotia touched off a Rate War on 3 - yr Fixed 2 weeks ago

2/ With extremely aggressive 3 - Yr Pricing: 3.69% on CMHC Low Down Payment Purchases & 3.99% on every other kind of 3 - Yr Mortgage

Other banks quickly followed suit although a bit reluctantly, this time of year doesn't typically have the aggressive rate wars of Spring Markets

3/

Fixed Mortgage Rate Or Variable Mortgage Rate? The Debate Goes Red Hot Today

As Canada accepts the idea our economy really is tanking & the Bank of Canada must cut rates this year the eternal question of Fixed or Variable is front & centre

What's the answer?

2/ Some of it is situational

If people are positive they will sell there house in a finite time horizon like 12 - 18 months take Variable

Guaranteed to only be a 3 - Month Interest penalty & on a short term basis 100% sure the rate will go down at least 50 BPS

Easy call

3/

Canadian Jobs Report A Disaster: What does It Mean For Bank Of Canada's Rate Decision?

66K Jobs Lost in Canada, over 100K in the last 2 months

Horrible outcome for all those families

Windsor Ontario hit & Alberta feeling the pain as energy prices slide

A country in pain

2/ Bank of Canada Decision on September 17th

Odds of a cut jump to 70%

Canada Bond Yields fell immediately so Traders sure believe in a cut

Will it happen?

Whether it's the 17th or not isn't the key issue

The key is cuts are now locked in

Whether its September or October

3/

Prime Minister Carney Please STOP Build Canada Homes: Cancel It NOW

Because this program is going to be a colossal failure & light Billions of Taxpayer's dollars on fire

You need to cancel it for many reasons but perhaps the most important is: it's just about Rentals

2/ Let's break it down:

- The entire discussion about Build Canada Homes has been about Affordable Housing: these are code words for Rentals & Subsidized Housing.
- We do NOT need a whole new Bureaucracy built to encourage Rentals: CMHC's Rental Program has already worked

3/

Federal Housing Minister Robertson Discovers Toronto Condo Market In Free Fall: Only 2 Years Too Late

It's always wild when Government realizes something everybody else knew for years

When the Immigration Minister noticed 3 Million New Canadians showed up in 2.5 years

2/ Wow, that may be too many

Or after 6 years of the Carbon Tax as the most hated thing in Canada & creating it's own inflation: Mark Carney shows up one day & says: this Carbon Tax has to go

The most hellacious thing about modern government is mind bending incompetence

3/

What They Call Mortgage Fraud In The USA Is Just A Normal Transaction In Canada

It just got a Federal Reserve Governor fired yesterday

It's called a False Primary Residence Declaration & in the USA it's a crime that can come with jail time

In Canada it's accepted practice

2/ This is whether the house being mortgaged is a primary residence, a secondary residence or a rental

Owner Occupied: Best Mortgage Rate

Secondary Residence (Cottage): Not as good Mortgage Rate

Rental: Significantly higher Mortgage Rate

In the USA you MUST be truthful

3/

Canada To Become A Nation Of Renters? The Truth Behind CMHC Housing Start Numbers

CMHC announces an adjustment UP in New Housing Starts this year to 294K

Ontario continues to be a disaster, Starts are down 68% from previous years

Where are the Starts & what are they?

2/ Quebec, Alberta, Prairies & Atlantic are all up, Quebec & Saskatchewan in particular are busy. BC still slow

What's getting built?

RENTALS are getting built in massive numbers

Starts for Houses for people to BUY is in a disastrous state, one of the lowest numbers ever

3/

Housing Crisis? What Housing Crisis? CMHC Announces Rental GLUT: So Many Rentals By 2026 They Will Stay Empty

Peak Insanity

Let's break this down

Condo Crashes in Toronto & Vancouver means there are many thousands of Condos that can't be sold

And more are completing!

2/ In the next 18 months there will be at least 40K more completed (mostly Dog Crates) that are so small they are only suitable for Rental

Meantime for the last 7 years CMHC's very good plan to encourage Purpose Built Rentals becomes a massive success story

With an added twist

3/

Why Recent The First Nations Land Ownership Court Decision In BC Is Totally NUTS

After a 5 Year Trial (longest in Canadian history) 800 acres in the City Of Richmond Hill BC was awarded to the Cowichan Tribes ending 200 years of accepted property law in Canada

2/ At the stroke of a pen a fuckwit Judge negated one of the most important aspects of law in a free society: property rights

If a court can decide a First Nations claim supersedes existing muti decade property titles this country is in more trouble than I thought

3/

Lousy Jobs Report Could Signal Future Bank Of Canada Rate Cuts

The concept that the Bank of Canada was finished cutting rates took at hit today with the report of 41K job losses (51K Full Time Jobs) Canada wide

Don't expect a cut at the September 17th announcement

2/ But if there are 2 more lousy jobs reports the October or December BoC announcements will likely bring a cut

That's particularly true if Canadian GDP shrinks as well

What to think about the future of mortgage rates?

Right now is an incredibly hard time for predictions

3/

Developers Want Foreign Buyers To Be Allowed To Buy Pre-Construction Condos Again

Because years ago Chinese buyers would fly in to Vancouver buy a dozen Pre-Con Condos & fly back

Similar story for Pre-Con Buyers from other nations

This was a huge benefit for Developers

2/ Imagine the ability to sell out a 300 unit proposes Development in a few days because Buyers ALL bought multiple units

You didn't need 300 Buyers you only need 75 or 80

It was incredibly efficient & effective

Which brings us to the basis of building a Condo Tower

3/

I Used To Think "You Will Own Nothing & Be Happy" Was A Dumb Slogan: Not So Sure Anymore.....

Because in Canada & other countries in the world Homeownership has become very difficult for young people without parental assistance or top 10% Income levels

And that's wrong

2/ Only 20 years ago house prices in Canada allowed the bulk of couples in their 30's to own a home of their own based on 5% Down Payment & their personal incomes

Not anymore

Everyone understands that house prices are down from their insane highs in March 2022

But not enough

3/

3 Million Immigrants In 3 Years Was The Worst Government Policy Mistake Of The Last 50 Years

We'll need more than 1 year of zero population growth to reverse this hellacious error

It's just math, screwing up the world's best Immigration system will take time to correct

2/ Let's put 3 Million new people in 3 Years into perspective

Imagine 28 Million new people coming into the United States LEGALLY

Roll that around in your head a moment

It's fair to say America would have have been in armed revolt at around 16 Million

Yeah, that serious

3/

In Ontario House Prices Only Go Up...... Welcome To 2025 Reality Prices Go DOWN

So many stories of homes selling below their 2020, 2021 & 2022 purchase price it's front page of the Business Section in @TorontoStar now

People watching Canadian Real Estate on X knew this

2/ Likely knew it 15 months ago

Let's put the 416 Condo Crash aside because that's a universal thing now & will just get worse next year

What about Low-Rise in other parts of the GTA and Ontario

Its regional

Let's start in Cottage Country: Sales have totally collapsed

3/

Is It Getting To Be A Good Time To Buy A House? Because We Are Starting To Hear That Alot

RBC published a study suggesting the best Housing "affordability" in 3 years

Real Estate analysts point out Homes in expensive markets are down in price

And it's true, prices are down

2/ But in some regions prices are down from a peak price moment that was the highest in the history of Canada

Some house prices went up 30% in 2021

Are prices down from Peak Crazy: Yes

The bizarre nexus of 1.69% Mortgage Rates & Batshit Crazy FOMO

Yeah, down from there

3/

Microsoft Terminates Another 10K Employees Will AI Decimate White Collar Jobs?

Yeah, it will

Why does a MortgageGuy keep posting about this?

Because Unemployment is the by far the biggest influence on Mortgage Default

And Canada has EXTRA trouble on this issue

2/ Because unlike the USA who is on a mission to restore Blue Collar Manufacturing Jobs through Trump's Tariff program Canada is watching Manufacturing Jobs dissappear

If the USA is determined to destroy Canada's Manufacturing capacity & AI is set to gut White Collar Jobs

3/