Should I Buy Now? The Real Estate Question We Hear More Today Than Ever Before

Why are we hearing it more often? Simple. Because in some parts of Canada, listings (Selection) are WAY up & Mortgage Rates are down from 6.5% heights

What's the right answer?

Probably WAIT

2/ Naturally if faced with Marriage Breakdown or some other time sensitive issue people need to take action: no choices

But if it's just "we can wait" then wait

I know 50K RE Agents will say: You CANNOT time the market!

But today is hardly a time anyone could call normal

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Time For Some Truth:

1) Mark Carney Is A Very Intelligent Accomplished Man

2) If Elected We Will Have The Same Shit Liberal Government We Had The Last 9 Years

There will be some slight differences but the end results will be the same

Let's break it down:

2/ Mark Carney believes in Carbon Reduction & Carbon Pricing in the deepest parts of his soul, just read his book

No Consumer Carbon Tax BUT Carney will develop something else (that he never can explain) that will push up prices on everything related to Carbon, we will pay more

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You Will Own Nothing & Be Happy: I Always Thought It Was A Dumb Slogan

I still don't think there's a conspiracy by Illuminati in a secret Headquarters in Davos Switzerland

But I am starting to wonder why a country like Canada is clearly pulling away from Home Ownership

2/ I believed that the shift in government programs to support the growth of Rental Development was needed and so far it likely works

Government neglected the production of Purpose Built Rentals for a couple of decades & replaced it with Investor driven Rental Condo Development

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Mark Carney Says Moving Money Offshore Is "Within The Rules" & He's Right. It's The RULES That Are Wrong

Mark Carney is correct but I am sure as hell mad about Rules that allow Canadian money & assets being to be moved Offshore to Tax Havens

It's one of the worst things

2/ About our Tax System & a HUGE part of Income disparity in this Country & too many countries

In the modern world the biggest disaster in our Tax Systems is the emphasis on taxing Income NOT Assets

And taxing consumption (GST), Gas, Liqour etc. NOT Assets

Why?

3/

The 3 Million New Homes By 2031 BS Is Likely The Biggest Lie Of The Election Campaign

500K New Homes a year?

FFS this is so completely crazy

Mark Carney opened with this preposterous lie 10 days ago & now Jagmeet Singh has jumped on the pure BS wagon yesterday

Insanity

2/ Pierre Poilievre doesn't put a number on his housing plan which is represents a degree of rationality

Let's be CLEAR: there will be NO 500K HOMES BUILT

Canada's best year was 275K 46 years ago

Strong chance New Home Starts falls below 200K this year

Math ain't Mathing

3/

Most Canadians Have No Understanding Of A Real Recession: They May Be About To Find Out

The 2008 World Financial Crisis barely touched Canada, 4 very worrying months & then things started feeling better & at the end of 14 months it was business as usual

No Big Deal...

2/ You need to go back to the 80's & 90's to understand a REAL economic downturn

That means people who were teenagers in 1990 are in their 50's now

All their adult lives they have never experienced an extended period of bleak, frightening financial contraction

Well, maybe now

3/

Real Estate Market Collapse? Sales Are Plummeting In Ontario & BC: Will It Get Worse? YES, IT WILL

Will RE Prices fall? Yeah, in specific regions & specific types of housing their will be continuing prices drops

Will the whole market collapse? NO

But it's going to be bad

2/ RE Sales (26 year low in GTA) will continue to slow as the Canadian Economy tumbles into Recession

Ontario & BC will be the worst hit

Please understand after yesterday's Tariff announcement the whole world's economy will slow

Things will get worse but how how much worse?

3/

Carney's Housing Plan: This Stuff Is Totally NUTs Important Fact: The Word "Homeownership" Appears Nowhere

Yep, a Housing Plan without anyone buying homes

I have read every word of the Explainer on the website & I will break down the key crazy elements of the plan

2/ I realize dedicated Liberals will say: Ron, you're just a Conservative shill always bashing Carney

And that's fine but today I am just analyzing the specifics of the Plan & I think any rational person will see they make no sense

Start with prime madness: Development Fees

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Time For Variable Mortgages To Lock In? Many 5 - Year Fixed Rates In 3% Range: What To Do?

If you follow my posts regularly remember for the last 12 months my recommendation was take a Variable Rate Mortgage & Lock-In when fixed rates drop into the 3% range

We're here!

2/ Many Banks & other Lenders offering 5 - Yr Fixed rates that start with a 3

3.64% for Hi-Ratio CMHC mortgages which is a small part of the market but 3.79% to 3.99% pretty much everywhere

Some banks are just straight up advertising 3.99% or less on the Websites

It's here

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Why Aren't Ontario House Prices Falling HARD? Listings Are Surging Sales Have Cratered

WTF is going on here? Rumors of Disaster yet some homes sell easily at close to asking

Let's dig into the reality of Single Family Sales in Ontario

First thing: Condos are DIFFERENT

2/ Hi-Rise Condos are on the precipice of huge correction which I posted on constantly

Let's think about Low-Rise, Single Family, Semi's & Towns

Today it's a region & timing story

Regions most impacted: distant 905 suburbs & towns that were purchased between late 2020 - 2022

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Why Is Financial Crime Accepted In Canada? Why Doesn't Government Give A Damn?

Because it is incredibly clear Government doesn't care that Canadians are ripped off by Investment charlatans

That Government Agencies chose not to bother to end Mortgage Document Fraud

2/ When they could end it tomorrow with minimal effort

That people who run obvious Ponzi schemes may not even be investigated by police

That when thorough Regulator investigations prove HUNDREDS of cases of false documents that no Criminal Charges are ever laid

It gets worse

3/

Are We On The Brink Of A Construction Industry Disaster? What If Home Building Is Stalled For YEARS

Been talking to many Industry people on the Developer side & this complete crash in Ontario Home Building is looking worse every week

Because it's likely to be a long time

2/ Before Residential Construction restarts

When does it get better?

Fastest recovery estimate I have heard is Mid 2027

Many say 2028, a few pessimists suggest 2030

Holy Crap, that's really bad

Let's get specific:

This is about real construction starts: digging a hole

3/

This Election Should Be Based On Only One Question After 9 Years Of Liberal Government: ARE YOU BETTER OFF?

Is Canada better now than 9 years ago?

Because Carney is just one man

Every else is the same

Think about it; Better off after 9 Liberal years or not

Think hard

2/ Although Trump & Tarrifs & the 51st State Bullshit is completely serious & dangerous there is no compelling, logical argument that Carney is going to be able to fix it at all & no evidence that Poilievre won't

The truth is we don't know who is the best guy to manage Trump

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The WILDEST Thing About BC Mortgage Fraud: Crook Says It's A Public Service

Yeah, he was just a "Helper"

The end of a long investigation that involved hundreds of fake income mortgages with over $6M in commissions

2/
'Staggering' reach of 'shadow...
cbc.ca/news/canada/br… The mastermind of the multi-year conspiracy had been quoted as saying that because house prices in BC are so high he was just helping people in their dream of Homeownership

God, these people are so awful

This case has been going on for years and this week marked the end

3/

One Pure Tragedy: No More Homeownership For Young Working People

Home ownership for young working people has faded away in Ontario & BC, it's headed downhill in Calgary

Quebec, it's still possible, but getting tougher

The rest of Canada is only 12% of our population

2/ This is a horrible outcome

Sure, MASSIVE parental help with down payment & maybe as Co-signers it's possible for average income people to own a home but is that right?

For 150 years average people could own homes in Canada with no help

Not anymore

How is that fair?

3/

New Construction Home Starts To BUY Is Dying In Ontario: Setting Up Future Shortages

Rental Units are getting built thanks to a successful CMHC program, but New Starts homes to buy has cratered

Lowest in 30 or 40 years & that's with twice the population

How did it happen?

2/ We know how;

- Highly Restricted release of land
-Crazy High Land Prices
- Insane 1000% Increased Municipal Development Fees
-Numerous & Nonsensically Expense Approval Studies for New Development
- Snails pace permit processes

There's more but that's enough

Why?

3/

Bank Of Canada Announcement Tomorrow: Do We Already Know What Will Happen

Is a 25 BPS Cut totally baked in?

Pretty much YES

Not to say BoC Governor Tiff Macklem couldn't just pause until April 16th & then go big at 50 BPS

But more likely 25 BPS tomorrow & more to come

2/ Because right now the only plausible direction is down

It's VERY easy to see today's 3% rate going to 2% by June

IMO EXTREMELY likely

Because it's just the BoC's dual mandate

Protect against inflation but guard against steep employment decline

Which is where we are

3/

Canada's New Unelected Prime Minister Mark Carney: What's Next?

Canada might be the only country this could happen

A man who was never elected to office anywhere jumps right to Prime Minister 58 days after putting himself up for Liberal Leader

Never elected to anything...

2/

https://twitter.com/liberal_party/status/1898864551551959478

Never ran for any political job. Liberals say that's good, NOT a politician

OK but Sweet Jaysus talk about starting at the Top

Clearly a smart guy, superb education, a Banker & Finance Guy down to his toes

Worked in Government, was Governor of 2 countries Central Banks

3/

Tariffs Chaos Reigns: When Does It End? What Happens With Mortgages & Real Estate?

When does this craziness end? Because if someone said last September: Hey, I think the entire basis of trade between Canada / USA will change utterly EVERY DAY

Nobody would believe it

2/ Seriously: Take all the US booze off the shelf, okay put it back, now take it off again, should we put it back now?

It's just nuts

And the likelihood is that it keeps going

If people think that Trump will wake up one morning & say: Yeah, I'm gonna give up the Tariff Stuff

3/

Look Like The Tariffs Are Here: What Happens In Real Estate & Mortgages

It's about how long the Tariffs stay, if some deal is worked out in 3 to 6 weeks it's a hit but not devastating

6 months of these Tariffs & Canada is in a hellacious Recession & Ontario devastated

2/ The effect on Real Estate in Ontario is massive

If these Tariffs hit even the 3 month mark expect Government backed programs to provide assistance to people who can't make mortgage payments due to job loss

Mortgage rates will fall particularly Variable

How big a drop?

3/

Is The 416 Condo Crash Day Of Reckoning Coming? What Will It Look Like?

Been thinking about this for over a year. What's the demarcation point in the Pre-Con Condo Crash in 416? What moment will we look back on & say "Yeah, June 2025 when it blew up"

Not saying it's June

2/ Suggesting there will be a moment where all of us following this will watch a large totally completed Project just flop

50% to 60% of the Pre-Con Condo Buyers will walk away from their deposits & purchase agreements & tell the Developer: I QUIT

I don't think that's today

3/