Just How Bad Are Home Sales Getting In The GTA: REALLY BAD

It looks like May will set 30 Year Low Numbers just like the previous few months of bad sales data from the biggest Real Estate Board in Canada

We know the Condo Story: looks like it's hit 10K of Listings

2/ The Condo Disaster will NOT resolve anytime soon, in fact it will worsen through the rest of this year

Low-Rise Homes (Singles, Semi's & Towns) continue very slow resales but that may start to change by Q4 this year

It's NOT going to radically improve but may stabilize

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This Condo Is Crap: The Dog Crate Condo Story
Why Did They Build Garbage?

I watch a lot of Real Estate Videos: TikTok & Insta

A very consistent theme has developed around Condos 550 sqft & smaller: they're crap

And the Buildings are crappy

It's sorta amazing & awful

2/ As the RE Agent walks around the unit showing it live on the TikTok, it's just bad

Sometimes the front door opens to a Bedroom

Sometimes the unit resembles a Bowling Lane or a big hallway

Sometimes there is zero Eating Area: not even a tiny island to pull up a chair to

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Federal Housing Minister Says "NO" To Any Reduction In House Prices In Canada

Only rational response is: WTF is going on here?

Canada has some of the highest house prices on Earth

Canadians 35 & younger see Homeownership rates plunging

High home prices are spreading

2/ The price of homes in small city Fredericton New Brunswick has risen 85% in 5 years, nearly double

While wages in New Brunswick have seen wage increases slightly less than CPI inflation

But on his first day on the job the Housing Minister in Ottawa declared his priorities

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416 Condo Collapse: Here's How Buying A Pre-Construction Unit Leads To Bankruptcy

The call came in Monday & it was possibly the worst outcome yet in the total disaster that is 416 Pre-Con Condo Crash

A woman considers Bankruptcy as the final option in a hopeless situation

2/ She purchased a Pre-construction Condo in a VERY prestigious Toronto location in Jan 2020 & now it is time to close the deal

She paid $1710 a sqft for a 580 sqft Unit

Yep, slightly over $1M for a 1 Bedroom Condo

She did very well on her first Condo Pre-Con purchase in 2013

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People Are Starting To Calculate What Price Dog Crate Condos Need To Get To In Order To Be Good Investments

And Sweet Jaysus, it's a low number

What emerges is both really frightening & strangely fascinating

Because many people want to ignore the numbers in favor of HOPE

2/ When we analyze an easy to achieve rent that quickly produces a quality tenant on a Downtown 416 tiny 550 sqft Condo it's about $2K a month (yep, I know some are paying $2350, let's assume rents are falling)

$2K a month rent, an 80% mortgage at 4%, $400 monthly maintenance

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The Moment Everyone Knew The Apocalypse Showed Up: Ontario Real Estate Capitulates

The event that Ontario RE has been working towards for over a year has occurred

The Signs & Portents were clear but their always needs to be "The Moment"

It's happened, what to do next?

2/ The TRREB announcement of multi-decade Sales Lows in homes traded is bad

But the year on year price drop was totally crushing

-21% Detached -30% Condos

It's 1990 again, folks & it ain't over yet

But as someone who has seen this all before 35 years ago: some perspective

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If You're 25 To 35 Years Old In Canada How's It Going? Statistically Pretty Crappy

Last week a deep dive of Employment Data showed Employment participation under age 25 hit the lowest level since 2008

Oh, Homeownership rates for Under 35's hits lowest levels in 40 years

2/ Belief in the possibility of Homeownership for those under 35 has reached the lowest level ever since researchers have been asking the question in surveys

AI & Automation look to eat into entry-level jobs in North America

For English Grads, the job of Copywriter is gone

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Should I Buy Now? The Real Estate Question We Hear More Today Than Ever Before

Why are we hearing it more often? Simple. Because in some parts of Canada, listings (Selection) are WAY up & Mortgage Rates are down from 6.5% heights

What's the right answer?

Probably WAIT

2/ Naturally if faced with Marriage Breakdown or some other time sensitive issue people need to take action: no choices

But if it's just "we can wait" then wait

I know 50K RE Agents will say: You CANNOT time the market!

But today is hardly a time anyone could call normal

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Time For Some Truth:

1) Mark Carney Is A Very Intelligent Accomplished Man

2) If Elected We Will Have The Same Shit Liberal Government We Had The Last 9 Years

There will be some slight differences but the end results will be the same

Let's break it down:

2/ Mark Carney believes in Carbon Reduction & Carbon Pricing in the deepest parts of his soul, just read his book

No Consumer Carbon Tax BUT Carney will develop something else (that he never can explain) that will push up prices on everything related to Carbon, we will pay more

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You Will Own Nothing & Be Happy: I Always Thought It Was A Dumb Slogan

I still don't think there's a conspiracy by Illuminati in a secret Headquarters in Davos Switzerland

But I am starting to wonder why a country like Canada is clearly pulling away from Home Ownership

2/ I believed that the shift in government programs to support the growth of Rental Development was needed and so far it likely works

Government neglected the production of Purpose Built Rentals for a couple of decades & replaced it with Investor driven Rental Condo Development

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Mark Carney Says Moving Money Offshore Is "Within The Rules" & He's Right. It's The RULES That Are Wrong

Mark Carney is correct but I am sure as hell mad about Rules that allow Canadian money & assets being to be moved Offshore to Tax Havens

It's one of the worst things

2/ About our Tax System & a HUGE part of Income disparity in this Country & too many countries

In the modern world the biggest disaster in our Tax Systems is the emphasis on taxing Income NOT Assets

And taxing consumption (GST), Gas, Liqour etc. NOT Assets

Why?

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The 3 Million New Homes By 2031 BS Is Likely The Biggest Lie Of The Election Campaign

500K New Homes a year?

FFS this is so completely crazy

Mark Carney opened with this preposterous lie 10 days ago & now Jagmeet Singh has jumped on the pure BS wagon yesterday

Insanity

2/ Pierre Poilievre doesn't put a number on his housing plan which is represents a degree of rationality

Let's be CLEAR: there will be NO 500K HOMES BUILT

Canada's best year was 275K 46 years ago

Strong chance New Home Starts falls below 200K this year

Math ain't Mathing

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Most Canadians Have No Understanding Of A Real Recession: They May Be About To Find Out

The 2008 World Financial Crisis barely touched Canada, 4 very worrying months & then things started feeling better & at the end of 14 months it was business as usual

No Big Deal...

2/ You need to go back to the 80's & 90's to understand a REAL economic downturn

That means people who were teenagers in 1990 are in their 50's now

All their adult lives they have never experienced an extended period of bleak, frightening financial contraction

Well, maybe now

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Real Estate Market Collapse? Sales Are Plummeting In Ontario & BC: Will It Get Worse? YES, IT WILL

Will RE Prices fall? Yeah, in specific regions & specific types of housing their will be continuing prices drops

Will the whole market collapse? NO

But it's going to be bad

2/ RE Sales (26 year low in GTA) will continue to slow as the Canadian Economy tumbles into Recession

Ontario & BC will be the worst hit

Please understand after yesterday's Tariff announcement the whole world's economy will slow

Things will get worse but how how much worse?

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Carney's Housing Plan: This Stuff Is Totally NUTs Important Fact: The Word "Homeownership" Appears Nowhere

Yep, a Housing Plan without anyone buying homes

I have read every word of the Explainer on the website & I will break down the key crazy elements of the plan

2/ I realize dedicated Liberals will say: Ron, you're just a Conservative shill always bashing Carney

And that's fine but today I am just analyzing the specifics of the Plan & I think any rational person will see they make no sense

Start with prime madness: Development Fees

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Time For Variable Mortgages To Lock In? Many 5 - Year Fixed Rates In 3% Range: What To Do?

If you follow my posts regularly remember for the last 12 months my recommendation was take a Variable Rate Mortgage & Lock-In when fixed rates drop into the 3% range

We're here!

2/ Many Banks & other Lenders offering 5 - Yr Fixed rates that start with a 3

3.64% for Hi-Ratio CMHC mortgages which is a small part of the market but 3.79% to 3.99% pretty much everywhere

Some banks are just straight up advertising 3.99% or less on the Websites

It's here

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Why Aren't Ontario House Prices Falling HARD? Listings Are Surging Sales Have Cratered

WTF is going on here? Rumors of Disaster yet some homes sell easily at close to asking

Let's dig into the reality of Single Family Sales in Ontario

First thing: Condos are DIFFERENT

2/ Hi-Rise Condos are on the precipice of huge correction which I posted on constantly

Let's think about Low-Rise, Single Family, Semi's & Towns

Today it's a region & timing story

Regions most impacted: distant 905 suburbs & towns that were purchased between late 2020 - 2022

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Why Is Financial Crime Accepted In Canada? Why Doesn't Government Give A Damn?

Because it is incredibly clear Government doesn't care that Canadians are ripped off by Investment charlatans

That Government Agencies chose not to bother to end Mortgage Document Fraud

2/ When they could end it tomorrow with minimal effort

That people who run obvious Ponzi schemes may not even be investigated by police

That when thorough Regulator investigations prove HUNDREDS of cases of false documents that no Criminal Charges are ever laid

It gets worse

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Are We On The Brink Of A Construction Industry Disaster? What If Home Building Is Stalled For YEARS

Been talking to many Industry people on the Developer side & this complete crash in Ontario Home Building is looking worse every week

Because it's likely to be a long time

2/ Before Residential Construction restarts

When does it get better?

Fastest recovery estimate I have heard is Mid 2027

Many say 2028, a few pessimists suggest 2030

Holy Crap, that's really bad

Let's get specific:

This is about real construction starts: digging a hole

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This Election Should Be Based On Only One Question After 9 Years Of Liberal Government: ARE YOU BETTER OFF?

Is Canada better now than 9 years ago?

Because Carney is just one man

Every else is the same

Think about it; Better off after 9 Liberal years or not

Think hard

2/ Although Trump & Tarrifs & the 51st State Bullshit is completely serious & dangerous there is no compelling, logical argument that Carney is going to be able to fix it at all & no evidence that Poilievre won't

The truth is we don't know who is the best guy to manage Trump

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The WILDEST Thing About BC Mortgage Fraud: Crook Says It's A Public Service

Yeah, he was just a "Helper"

The end of a long investigation that involved hundreds of fake income mortgages with over $6M in commissions

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'Staggering' reach of 'shadow...
cbc.ca/news/canada/br… The mastermind of the multi-year conspiracy had been quoted as saying that because house prices in BC are so high he was just helping people in their dream of Homeownership

God, these people are so awful

This case has been going on for years and this week marked the end

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