Thread by @evgen1232007

The Ru economy has begun to collapse. Thread.
Federal budget revenue growth has been slowing for 5 quarters in a row and in Q1 25 it was only +3.7%. Look at the chart, the last 5 quarters the revenue growth rate was +54%_+25%_+25%_+11%_+4%
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If we look at the rate of income growth on a monthly basis, we will see that the situation is even worse.
Over the past 15 months, the growth rate has fallen from +77% to 0%
The situation became especially catastrophic in Q1 25:
Jan 25: +11%
Feb 25: +2%
Mar 25: +0%
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Now let's look at the structure. About 1/3 of revenues are oil, 2/3 are non-oil.
Oil revenues grew by 60-90% at the beginning of 2024, in Feb-Mar25 they fell by 20% due to the fall in oil prices, and this does not even take into account the fall in the last week.
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Non-oil revenues started 2024 at +85%, but since the second half of the year the growth rate has slowed from +37% to +10%. Ru killed the non-military sector of the economy. Labor shortages, expensive loans and cuts in support programs have brought down the civilian sector.
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Increased military spending and a lack of revenues led to a sharp increase in government debt, which resulted in rising inflation and higher costs of servicing government debt.
Cost of servicing government debt increased by 44% in 1Q25
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Slower revenue growth and higher debt servicing costs mean that 8% of revenues must be spent on debt servicing. Taking into account the costs of mortgage programs and subsidies for preferential loans for businesses, the share of expenses that must be spent on
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service, will be 13% of income.

And then the moment will come when Ru, in conditions of falling income, will not be able to service its debt obligations.
DEFAULT - REVOLUTION - COLLAPSE OF THE REGIME.
The end.
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