Sensation
Russia's federal budget revenues plummeted 12% year-on-year in October!
Thread

Federal budget revenues in October - 2986 billion rubles (-12%)
1/ Revenue in October: RUB 2,986 billion (-12%)
Of which:
- Oil and gas revenue: RUB 889 billion (-27%)
- Non-oil and gas revenue: RUB 2,096 billion (-4%)
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Russia is preparing a large-scale bond issue.
Today, news broke that the Russian Ministry of Finance has registered five new bond issues with a nominal value of 4.25 trillion rubles.
Explanation:
To cover the budget deficit, the Ministry of Finance needs funds. The Ministry
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issues bonds and sells them on the market, with the proceeds going to the budget to cover the deficit.

But the problem is that it's impossible to borrow such huge sums on the Russian market.
To do this, the Central Bank issues repo agreements to banks secured by OFZs, so that
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Russia's federal budget revenues have fallen below last year's level !
Thread.

In September, revenues fell by (-1.2% y/y) to 3,211 billion rubles.
In real terms, revenues fell by 10%. This is a disaster; even inflation couldn't save them.

1/ Oil and gas revenues fell by 25% in September.
Non-oil and gas revenues grew by only 6%, the smallest increase in 15 months.

The economy is beginning to collapse, and industry is deteriorating.
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Today, Kommersant published Russia's planned steps to eliminate the fuel shortage.
1. Increasing imports from Belarus
2. Permitting the use of the octane-boosting additive monomethylaniline
3. Imports from China, South Korea, and Singapore
1/ Imports are planned at 350,000 tons of gasoline and 100,000 tons of diesel. However, the problem is that imported gasoline will cost at least 90 rubles per liter at gas stations, while according to Rosstat, the national price is 65 rubles. This represents a 45% increase.
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Short thread: Recession in the Russian construction sector

Cement production fell 10,5% y/y in August
Decline over the past 8 months: 8,7% y/y

1/ For the last three months, cement production volumes have been at a 5-year low!!!!
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My observations on the Russian fuel market. Thread.

🔶️Gasoline
Before the gubernatorial elections, which took place on Sept 12-14, in my opinion, they kept prices down using administrative measures, plus volumes from some reserves were being sold and traded on the exchange
1/ Perhaps from state reserves. After the elections, sales from the reserves were closed. Gasoline sales on the exchange have been 25% below the August average for the third day running, which is about 7,000 tons per day lost. Prices aren't rising because they're being held down
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Attack on the port of Primorsk on September 12. Thread.

The numbers are the numbers of the berths.

Berths No. 1 and 2 for loading crude oil
berths No. 8 and 9 for loading oil products
berths No. 3 and 4 can be used for loading both crude oil and oil products.
1/ The captions are the names of the ships standing for loading at the time of the attack.

At the time of the attack, the location of the ships in the port was as in the picture.

As a result of the attack, 3 tankers were damaged.
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Hidden unemployment has been growing in Russia since the second half of the second quarter! The state of the economy is deteriorating sharply.
Thread.
1/ Explanation. I took the consolidated budget data, subtracted the federal budget figures to clear the noise on some taxes and see more or less clean dynamics, since some taxes changed their rates from the new year and innovations were introduced in taxation.
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I will explain to you now what has been happening all August and what happened tonight. Thread.
1/ Gasoline and diesel are delivered to the south of Russia from the Samara group of refineries (Kuibyshevsky, Novokuibyshevsky and Syzransky refineries) as well as from the Volgograd refinery (delivery line in yellow)
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As a result of the attack, the Gazprom Ust-Luga gas processing complex was hit (the “Gas Processing Complex/GPC” as part of the Baltic Gas Chemical Cluster).
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Specifically, the cryogenic gas condensate/gas fractionation unit suffered critical damage. It is the “heart” of the gas processing complex: rectification and separation of components take place here, which are then either exported or used as raw materials for the Baltic Gas
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Izvestia published an excellent article about the fuel crisis in the Russian Far East.
I will provide individual quotes with my comments
Thread
1/ The specified volumes partially went to the center of Russia, and partially went to the gas stations of the refinery owners.
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Thread.

In Russia, the trend of outflow of deposits from banks has begun to accelerate. The rate is currently 500 billion rubles/month.

What dangers does this pose to the financial system?
1. A drop in the level of liquidity in weak banks with subsequent bankruptcy.

1/ 2. A general decline in liquidity of the entire banking system, which will lead to a decline in lending to the economy, and as a consequence, a slowdown in the economy.

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Budget disaster in Russia !

Federal budget execution data for 7 months released.
July deficit - 1.186 trillion rubles
January-July deficit - 4.879 trillion rubles
(January-July deficit.24 - 1098 trillion rubles)
1/ According to the results of 7 months, the deficit is 4.879 trillion rubles
This is more than in the entire history of Russia, and this is a deficit for only 7 months. At this rate, the deficit by the end of the year could be 9-10 trillion rub !
This is 110-120 billion dollars
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Thread.
The banking crisis in Russia is gaining momentum.
Earlier, Bloomberg published an article that Russian banks are in a terrible situation due to under-formed loan reserves. This information is confirmed.
1/ The Ministry of Finance published a report on operations with the National Welfare Fund for July. VEB and VTB received new deposits for 335 billion rubles to improve the liquidity situation.
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Thread.
About the catastrophic situation of Russian banks!
Earlier, Bloomberg published an article that the banks are in a terrible situation due to under-formed loan reserves.
1/ Of course, the Central Bank denied everything, but it's all a lie. It's enough to look at how many subloans the banks received from the National Welfare Fund
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Thread
Very strange news. Today it became known that VTB Bank received 200 billion rubles from the Fund. It seems to me that they are preparing some large-scale scheme for withdrawing money from the Fund and transferring it in the form of subordinated debt to the balance
1/ sheets of banks.
In May, they already issued subordinations for 360 billion rubles to 5 banks, allegedly for construction. But this is all a lie. The real goal is to maintain the liquidity of banks. The lack of capital of Russian banks is their sore spot.
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Collapse of profits of Russian companies

Russian Railways net profit under RAS fell by 22.6 times in the first half of the year
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interfax.ru/business/10388… Aeroflot's quarterly adjusted profit in Q2 under RAS fell by 3 times
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interfax.ru/business/10388…

Thread.
Data on the execution of the federal budget Ru for June has appeared. Everything is very bad.
Budget deficit in June amounted to 300 billion rubles.
For 6 months, the deficit is 3.693 trillion
1/ The accumulated budget deficit has approached the 3.8 trillion ruble mark, which is an updated plan that Putin signed only 2 weeks ago. Now a new plan needs to be drawn up and approved )
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There's been so much bad news for Russia in 2 days that I decided to write a thread.
Let's go
1/ Due to Gazprom's constant losses, they decided to shift the responsibility of paying taxes to other companies ahaha
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interfax.ru/russia/1034091

The Kremlin's budget disaster thread.

In May 25, budget revenues fell -6% Y/Y for the first time in 1.5 years. This is the most important indicator of the economic crisis.

Against the backdrop of 10% inflation, the drop in revenues in real terms is 16%.
1/ May-2025
Revenues - 2458 billion rubles -6% Y/Y

Of which:
- oil and gas revenues - 513 billion -35% Y/Y
- NON-oil and gas revenues - 1949 billion +8% Y/Y
Expenses - 2626 billion +20% Y/Y
Deficit - 168 billion
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At what oil price will Russian companies start making losses? - Thread.
I made some calculations that you can see in the table. Approximately 5700-5800 rubles per barrel.
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To assess the profitability of the sector, you need to take into account the dollar exchange rate. So, with today's exchange rate of $/80, companies need a price of $75 per barrel.

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