Thread
Very strange news. Today it became known that VTB Bank received 200 billion rubles from the Fund. It seems to me that they are preparing some large-scale scheme for withdrawing money from the Fund and transferring it in the form of subordinated debt to the balance
1/ sheets of banks.
In May, they already issued subordinations for 360 billion rubles to 5 banks, allegedly for construction. But this is all a lie. The real goal is to maintain the liquidity of banks. The lack of capital of Russian banks is their sore spot.
2/

Collapse of profits of Russian companies

Russian Railways net profit under RAS fell by 22.6 times in the first half of the year
1/
interfax.ru/business/10388… Aeroflot's quarterly adjusted profit in Q2 under RAS fell by 3 times
2/
interfax.ru/business/10388…

Thread.
Data on the execution of the federal budget Ru for June has appeared. Everything is very bad.
Budget deficit in June amounted to 300 billion rubles.
For 6 months, the deficit is 3.693 trillion
1/ The accumulated budget deficit has approached the 3.8 trillion ruble mark, which is an updated plan that Putin signed only 2 weeks ago. Now a new plan needs to be drawn up and approved )
2/

There's been so much bad news for Russia in 2 days that I decided to write a thread.
Let's go
1/ Due to Gazprom's constant losses, they decided to shift the responsibility of paying taxes to other companies ahaha
2/

interfax.ru/russia/1034091

The Kremlin's budget disaster thread.

In May 25, budget revenues fell -6% Y/Y for the first time in 1.5 years. This is the most important indicator of the economic crisis.

Against the backdrop of 10% inflation, the drop in revenues in real terms is 16%.
1/ May-2025
Revenues - 2458 billion rubles -6% Y/Y

Of which:
- oil and gas revenues - 513 billion -35% Y/Y
- NON-oil and gas revenues - 1949 billion +8% Y/Y
Expenses - 2626 billion +20% Y/Y
Deficit - 168 billion
2/

At what oil price will Russian companies start making losses? - Thread.
I made some calculations that you can see in the table. Approximately 5700-5800 rubles per barrel.
1/
To assess the profitability of the sector, you need to take into account the dollar exchange rate. So, with today's exchange rate of $/80, companies need a price of $75 per barrel.

2/

Rosstat has classified detailed data on birth rates, death rates, marriages, divorces and corresponding coefficients in Ru.
Instead of 6 files, 1 file is now published.
Regional data is completely classified!
Monthly data has also been closed! (screenshot - all that remains!)
1/ In March, the birth rate fell by 5.6% y-o-y to a new historical minimum - 3012 people per day. And the death rate jumped by 5.8% y-o-y to 5078 people per day. As a result, the natural decline increased by 28.4% y-o-y (!!!) to 2066 people per day. Rosstat.
2/

A budget disaster is brewing in Ru
Here is a table with budget analysis
The planned budget expenditures for 2025 should grow by 5%, but in 4 months they increased expenditures by 21%, in order to fit into the plan, expenditures for the remaining period should be reduced by 2%
1/ This led to a 182% increase in the budget deficit in January-April y/y
They need to reduce the deficit by 76% by the end of the year May-December
In the conditions of war, a 2% reduction in spending in the remaining months is extremely unlikely.
2/

Russia is on the verge of a budget disaster!
Thread. Analysis of the industrial production index shows that the civil industry has gone into recession and collapsed to the level of spring 2023 (orange, Fig. 1)
1/

Total federal budget revenues consist of two parts, oil and gas and NON-oil and gas. Civil industry provides the bulk of NON-oil and gas revenues. The slowdown in revenue growth is clearly visible in Fig. 2
2/

The Ru economy has begun to collapse. Thread.
Federal budget revenue growth has been slowing for 5 quarters in a row and in Q1 25 it was only +3.7%. Look at the chart, the last 5 quarters the revenue growth rate was +54%_+25%_+25%_+11%_+4%
1/ If we look at the rate of income growth on a monthly basis, we will see that the situation is even worse.
Over the past 15 months, the growth rate has fallen from +77% to 0%
The situation became especially catastrophic in Q1 25:
Jan 25: +11%
Feb 25: +2%
Mar 25: +0%
2/

Thread
Please repost, everyone should know about this.
We need to impose even more sanctions against Russia to deprive it of money to wage war!
Since the new year, Russia has increased one-time payments to new soldiers to 4 million rubles ($ 38,835)
1/


In the Samara region, one-time payments have reached 4 million rubles ($ 38,835)
The average payment in the Top 10 regions was - $ 26,019 (+ $ 2,100 per month) Over the year + 393%
Since the beginning of the year, 9 more regions have increased payments.
2/

Thread
Construction in Russia is going down the drain.
New statistics have been released. In December, the share of sold apartments fell to 31%. At the same time, the volume of housing under construction fell by 5 million square meters.
1/ The volume of unsold housing remained at 53 million square meters. This is an entire city with a population of 2 million people.
2/

Mini thread
Rumors are actively spreading in Russia about freezing citizens' deposits according to the Cyprus scenario.
Amounts up to 1.4 million rubles remain with citizens, everything above that is converted into bank shares.
1/ Yesterday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was forced to urgently issue an explanation about the impossibility of such an outcome. But apparently the situation is more serious if the Central Bank takes such measures
2/

A stunning new study.
Moscow is financing the war with soft loans from banks. Expenditures on the war are 2 times higher than the budget.
Russia's entire banking system could collapse in an instant !!!!
1/


2/
navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidd…

Thread.
In this thread I will tell you about the problems of Russia, which no one has published about before. Problems of state monopolies. Let's begin.
Avtodor - 30% yield
1/ В условиях растущей инфляции и ожиданий очередного повышения ключевой облигации государственных монополий начали обвал.
Почта России - доходность 28%
2/

Bankruptcies of the Russian debt market.
Part 2. Thread.
Yesterday I detailed the sectoral problems. The real estate sector is the leader. Well, let's figure it out.
Here are the stock charts of the two largest developers.
1/
And here are the quotes of the developers' bonds in descending order by value. In these tables you can see how rapidly the bonds are falling in price. Yields reach 40-50% But why did this happen? More on that below
2/

Analysis of the Russian corporate debt market. Defaults are near!

The latest inflation data in Russia shows poor dynamics, which means that the Central Bank will raise the key rate again. This will affect many companies. Well, let's figure out what is happening in Russia.
1/ In the chart above, we see the dynamics of credit spreads by industry sectors. Let's figure out what happened and why there is such a huge spread.
The corporate debt market in Ru has been actively growing for many years. So this year, 264 issuers placed bonds for 14 trill rub
2/

Thread.
I'm tired of reading about how good things will be for Russian exporters and how Russia's trade balance will improve.
People don't understand the basics of economics. If the ruble rate soars by 10% per month, the population will start withdrawing money from deposits.
1/4 Who needs these deposits at 20% per annum if it's easier to buy dollars. But when deposits start to flow out of banks, a banking crisis begins. Banks start to go bankrupt. The entire financial system of the country collapses. Accounts are frozen. Businesses are idle.
2/4

Please retweet in advance.
This will be a long thread in which I will explain and show the approach of mass corporate defaults in Russia.
I will also show that Putin's economy is currently in the worst possible position.
Here is the IFX-CBONDS G-SPREAD index
1/n It shows the difference between the yield of OFZ and corporate bonds. It is currently at a historical maximum. The huge growth occurred after November 5.
2/n

Thread.
The CB Ru set the maximum limit for monthly repo auctions at 500 billion rub from November 25
Based on the cross-schedule of allocation and repayment, I assume that a total of 1.5-2 trillion rub will be allocated for the purchase of OFZ to finance the budget deficit.
1/2 Since the beginning of the year, the volume of OFZs in circulation has grown by only 880 billion, while according to the plan, the government debt should grow by 2.5-3 trillion.
2/n

Metal production in Russia in October.

according to "Chermet", y/y

Steel in October: -14.3%
For 10 months and further (-6.9%)

Finished rolled products: -14.6%
For 10 months (-6.5%)

Pig iron: -14.1% (-8.5% last month),
For 9 months (-6.2%)

Pipes: -8.8%
For 10 m: -4.6%
Данные прошлого месяца