Thread
Please repost, everyone should know about this.
We need to impose even more sanctions against Russia to deprive it of money to wage war!
Since the new year, Russia has increased one-time payments to new soldiers to 4 million rubles ($ 38,835)
1/


In the Samara region, one-time payments have reached 4 million rubles ($ 38,835)
The average payment in the Top 10 regions was - $ 26,019 (+ $ 2,100 per month) Over the year + 393%
Since the beginning of the year, 9 more regions have increased payments.
2/

Thread
Construction in Russia is going down the drain.
New statistics have been released. In December, the share of sold apartments fell to 31%. At the same time, the volume of housing under construction fell by 5 million square meters.
1/ The volume of unsold housing remained at 53 million square meters. This is an entire city with a population of 2 million people.
2/

Mini thread
Rumors are actively spreading in Russia about freezing citizens' deposits according to the Cyprus scenario.
Amounts up to 1.4 million rubles remain with citizens, everything above that is converted into bank shares.
1/ Yesterday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was forced to urgently issue an explanation about the impossibility of such an outcome. But apparently the situation is more serious if the Central Bank takes such measures
2/

A stunning new study.
Moscow is financing the war with soft loans from banks. Expenditures on the war are 2 times higher than the budget.
Russia's entire banking system could collapse in an instant !!!!
1/


2/
navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidd…

Thread.
In this thread I will tell you about the problems of Russia, which no one has published about before. Problems of state monopolies. Let's begin.
Avtodor - 30% yield
1/ В условиях растущей инфляции и ожиданий очередного повышения ключевой облигации государственных монополий начали обвал.
Почта России - доходность 28%
2/

Bankruptcies of the Russian debt market.
Part 2. Thread.
Yesterday I detailed the sectoral problems. The real estate sector is the leader. Well, let's figure it out.
Here are the stock charts of the two largest developers.
1/
And here are the quotes of the developers' bonds in descending order by value. In these tables you can see how rapidly the bonds are falling in price. Yields reach 40-50% But why did this happen? More on that below
2/

Analysis of the Russian corporate debt market. Defaults are near!

The latest inflation data in Russia shows poor dynamics, which means that the Central Bank will raise the key rate again. This will affect many companies. Well, let's figure out what is happening in Russia.
1/ In the chart above, we see the dynamics of credit spreads by industry sectors. Let's figure out what happened and why there is such a huge spread.
The corporate debt market in Ru has been actively growing for many years. So this year, 264 issuers placed bonds for 14 trill rub
2/

Thread.
I'm tired of reading about how good things will be for Russian exporters and how Russia's trade balance will improve.
People don't understand the basics of economics. If the ruble rate soars by 10% per month, the population will start withdrawing money from deposits.
1/4 Who needs these deposits at 20% per annum if it's easier to buy dollars. But when deposits start to flow out of banks, a banking crisis begins. Banks start to go bankrupt. The entire financial system of the country collapses. Accounts are frozen. Businesses are idle.
2/4

Please retweet in advance.
This will be a long thread in which I will explain and show the approach of mass corporate defaults in Russia.
I will also show that Putin's economy is currently in the worst possible position.
Here is the IFX-CBONDS G-SPREAD index
1/n It shows the difference between the yield of OFZ and corporate bonds. It is currently at a historical maximum. The huge growth occurred after November 5.
2/n

Thread.
The CB Ru set the maximum limit for monthly repo auctions at 500 billion rub from November 25
Based on the cross-schedule of allocation and repayment, I assume that a total of 1.5-2 trillion rub will be allocated for the purchase of OFZ to finance the budget deficit.
1/2 Since the beginning of the year, the volume of OFZs in circulation has grown by only 880 billion, while according to the plan, the government debt should grow by 2.5-3 trillion.
2/n

Metal production in Russia in October.

according to "Chermet", y/y

Steel in October: -14.3%
For 10 months and further (-6.9%)

Finished rolled products: -14.6%
For 10 months (-6.5%)

Pig iron: -14.1% (-8.5% last month),
For 9 months (-6.2%)

Pipes: -8.8%
For 10 m: -4.6%
Данные прошлого месяца

В РФ проблемы растут, ЦБ признал что не может побороть инфляцию. Мини тред
Сегодня ЦБ опубликовал отчет

В котором признал что в сентябре опять ускорился рост денежной массы из-за рост кредитов в корпоративном сегменте ( военка )
Показатель М2 +20%
⬇️⬇️ cbr.ru/Collection/Col… Рост кредитов корпоративного сектора достиг +20% г/г
⬇️⬇️⬇️