1/J
Back in 2019 Javier Vinós (@JVinos_Climate) made some predictions, and I made some in response.
This thread will assess the accuracy of those predictions.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
There are also ongoing predictions elsewhere
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
2/J
In 2019 Vinós said:
"All the warming since 2013 and more will be lost."
judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/cli…
My response:
judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/cli…
He also predicted:
"no net warming over the first quarter of the 21st century"
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…
My response:
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…
3/J
Data through 2024 supports those predictions + falsifies Vinós claims.
(Data for prediction 3 has not be updated:
archive.is/TjamB)
On predictions 1, 2 , 5, and 6:
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
library.wmo.int/idurl/4/69455
[web.archive.org/web/2025031905…]
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…
4/J
On prediction 5:
"How much land ice is there in the World?
Most (99.5%) of the permanent ice volume in the world is locked up in ice sheets and glaciers."
antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-c…
library.wmo.int/idurl/4/69455
[web.archive.org/web/2025031905…]
climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ic…
5/J
There will be an update for prediction 4 when 'State of the Climate in 2024' is released
ametsoc.org/ams/publicatio…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/priscian/statu…
"Fig. 2.11. Monthly average global lower tropospheric temperature (LTT) anomalies (°C)"
ametsoc.net/sotc2023/SoCin…
6/J
In the interim with respect to predictions 2 and 4:
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
AIRS data:
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabled…
"the AIRS satellite data [...] also show 2024 as the warmest year on record"
carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…
7/J
And Vinós simply made up some new predictions instead of cogently addressing the failure of his past predictions.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/JVinos_Climate…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
8/J
Climate science contrarians tend not to make accurate predictions.
Worth keeping in mind when you see contrarian claims from folks like Vinós.
x.com/Ciclodas/statu…
x.com/histoireclimat…
x.com/TheDisproof/st…
x.com/FrederikSchenk…
x.com/AndrewDessler/…
9/J
Vinós predicts warming deceleration, while I + many others predict acceleration by 2035.
If acceleration happens, then expect more revisionism from Vinós + other contrarians.
nature.com/articles/d4158…
researchsquare.com/article/rs-607…
x.com/JVinos_Climate…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
10/J
1990-2030 and 1990-2040 trends would thus be ≥0.25°C/decade, contrary to Vinós guess.
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…
[psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit…]
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/hausfath/statu…
Vinós in 2019:
archive.is/TK5ys#selectio…
11/J
Re: "≥0.25°C/decade"
To be assessed with 7 analyses.
1990-2025 so far, in °C/decade:
- ERA5: 0.25
- GISTEMP: 0.24
- NOAA: 0.23
- JRA-3Q: 0.21
archive.is/wi6UY
archive.is/DUuN0
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
climatechangetracker.org/igcc
[doi.org/10.5194/essd-1…]
12/J
≥0.25°C/decade for 1990-2030 and for 1990-2040 exceeds what contrarians predict in their objections to the IPCC's 1990 report.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/mattwridley/st…
rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/09/global…
13/J
FYI, @NehrilO:
Vinós does not honestly admit when his predictions are wrong.
Only the credulous or uninformed believe him.
"Javier Vinós"
judithcurry.com/2024/07/05/hun…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/RyanMaue/statu…
x.com/NehrilO/status…
@NehrilO 14/J
More predictions Vinós will make excuses for when they fail, as usual.
x.com/JVinos_Climate…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
@NehrilO 15/J
h/t @histoireclimat
x.com/histoireclimat…
x.com/JVinos_Climate…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
@NehrilO @histoireclimat 16/J
Seems Vinós confused the projected rate for 1990-2100 with the smaller projected rate for early time periods such as 1990-2030.
The projected rate increased with time.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
Vinós in 2019:
archive.is/TK5ys#selectio…
@NehrilO @histoireclimat 17/J
Anyone want to ask the denialists to compare observed 1990-2025 warming to IPCC projections?
Would be fun watching them bravely run from what they previously said about it. 😁
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks
Starting with @mattwridley's 2025 admission below.
from 35:00 :
"warmed at [...] about a quarter of a degree per decade on average across the [...] last 30, 40 years"
@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley @grok How much global warming has happened from 1990 to 2025, to one decimal point?
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
ERA: 0.25°C/decade
GISTEMP: 0.24°/decade
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…
[psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…]
18/J
Vinós in 2019:
"The warming predicted in 1990 was 0.3°C (0.2-0.5°C). The warming observed in HadCRUT4 is just 0.17°C, half the warming predicted."
judithcurry.com/2019/10/16/cli…
In response:
x.com/grok/status/19…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
19/J
Prepare for excuses while Arctic warming continues for years to come.
A revival of the 'cooling since 2016' meme. 🙄
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…
x.com/JVinos_Climate…
x.com/hausfath/statu…
20/J
Re: "5/J
There will be an update for prediction 4 when 'State of the Climate in 2024' is released"
Prediction 4 was a tropospheric net warming trend for 2000-2024 (+ 2000-2025)
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…
Prediction confirmed
ametsoc.net/sotc2024/SotC2…
[ametsoc.org/ams/publicatio…]
@threadreaderapp unroll
@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley Dave Farina ('Professor Dave Explains') addresses this well in the video below.
48:44 to 55:02 :
21/J
The bottom panel of that image also falsifies Vinós' (@JVinos_Climate) 2019 claim on La Niñas causing cooling through 2024/2025.
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.