Thread by @AtomsksSanakan

1/J

Back in 2019 Javier Vinós (@JVinos_Climate) made some predictions, and I made some in response.

This thread will assess the accuracy of those predictions.

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There are also ongoing predictions elsewhere

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2/J

In 2019 Vinós said:
"All the warming since 2013 and more will be lost."
judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/cli…

My response:
judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/cli…

He also predicted:
"no net warming over the first quarter of the 21st century"
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…

My response:
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…

3/J

Data through 2024 supports those predictions + falsifies Vinós claims.

(Data for prediction 3 has not be updated:
archive.is/TjamB)

On predictions 1, 2 , 5, and 6:

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

library.wmo.int/idurl/4/69455
[web.archive.org/web/2025031905…]
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…

4/J

On prediction 5:

"How much land ice is there in the World?
Most (99.5%) of the permanent ice volume in the world is locked up in ice sheets and glaciers."
antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-c…

library.wmo.int/idurl/4/69455
[web.archive.org/web/2025031905…]
climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ic…

5/J

There will be an update for prediction 4 when 'State of the Climate in 2024' is released

ametsoc.org/ams/publicatio…

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"Fig. 2.11. Monthly average global lower tropospheric temperature (LTT) anomalies (°C)"
ametsoc.net/sotc2023/SoCin…

6/J

In the interim with respect to predictions 2 and 4:

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AIRS data:
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabled…

"the AIRS satellite data [...] also show 2024 as the warmest year on record"
carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…

7/J

And Vinós simply made up some new predictions instead of cogently addressing the failure of his past predictions.

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8/J

Climate science contrarians tend not to make accurate predictions.

Worth keeping in mind when you see contrarian claims from folks like Vinós.

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9/J

Vinós predicts warming deceleration, while I + many others predict acceleration by 2035.

If acceleration happens, then expect more revisionism from Vinós + other contrarians.

nature.com/articles/d4158…
researchsquare.com/article/rs-607…

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10/J

1990-2030 and 1990-2040 trends would thus be ≥0.25°C/decade, contrary to Vinós guess.

psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…
[psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit…]

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Vinós in 2019:
archive.is/TK5ys#selectio…

11/J

Re: "≥0.25°C/decade"

To be assessed with 7 analyses.

1990-2025 so far, in °C/decade:
- ERA5: 0.25
- GISTEMP: 0.24
- NOAA: 0.23
- JRA-3Q: 0.21

archive.is/wi6UY
archive.is/DUuN0

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

climatechangetracker.org/igcc
[doi.org/10.5194/essd-1…]

12/J

≥0.25°C/decade for 1990-2030 and for 1990-2040 exceeds what contrarians predict in their objections to the IPCC's 1990 report.

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rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/09/global…

13/J

FYI, @NehrilO:

Vinós does not honestly admit when his predictions are wrong.
Only the credulous or uninformed believe him.

"Javier Vinós"
judithcurry.com/2024/07/05/hun…

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@NehrilO 14/J

More predictions Vinós will make excuses for when they fail, as usual.

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@NehrilO 15/J

h/t @histoireclimat

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@NehrilO @histoireclimat 16/J

Seems Vinós confused the projected rate for 1990-2100 with the smaller projected rate for early time periods such as 1990-2030.

The projected rate increased with time.

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Vinós in 2019:
archive.is/TK5ys#selectio…

@NehrilO @histoireclimat 17/J

Anyone want to ask the denialists to compare observed 1990-2025 warming to IPCC projections?

Would be fun watching them bravely run from what they previously said about it. 😁

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@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks

Starting with @mattwridley's 2025 admission below.

from 35:00 :
"warmed at [...] about a quarter of a degree per decade on average across the [...] last 30, 40 years"

@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley @grok How much global warming has happened from 1990 to 2025, to one decimal point?

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ERA: 0.25°C/decade
GISTEMP: 0.24°/decade
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…
[psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…]

18/J

Vinós in 2019:
"The warming predicted in 1990 was 0.3°C (0.2-0.5°C). The warming observed in HadCRUT4 is just 0.17°C, half the warming predicted."
judithcurry.com/2019/10/16/cli…

In response:
x.com/grok/status/19…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

19/J

Prepare for excuses while Arctic warming continues for years to come.

A revival of the 'cooling since 2016' meme. 🙄

psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…

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20/J

Re: "5/J
There will be an update for prediction 4 when 'State of the Climate in 2024' is released"

Prediction 4 was a tropospheric net warming trend for 2000-2024 (+ 2000-2025)
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…

Prediction confirmed
ametsoc.net/sotc2024/SotC2…
[ametsoc.org/ams/publicatio…]

@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley Dave Farina ('Professor Dave Explains') addresses this well in the video below.

48:44 to 55:02 :

21/J

The bottom panel of that image also falsifies Vinós' (@JVinos_Climate) 2019 claim on La Niñas causing cooling through 2024/2025.

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…

judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…

@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley "warming over the next century, roughly speaking, and I’m at the bottom end of that range. I’m probably within that range. I think we probably will see 1.5 degrees of warming – this is above preindustrial levels"
open.edu/openlearn/natu…

75 years early:
climate.metoffice.cloud/current_warmin…

@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley Two-part example of Ridley's bad faith.

Part 1:
Saying in 2014/2015 that feedback-enhanced warming of ~0.3°C/decade would be dangerous.

"large positive feedback that can turn a mild warming into a dangerous one just is not there"
archive.is/pJAzT#selectio…

archive.is/32FiP#selectio…

@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley Part 2:
Saying in 2025 that ~0.3°C/decade of warming is 'gentle', after observing that warming.

"It bottomed out and started warming gently.
And since then it's warmed at about a quarter of a degree per decade on average across the last 30, 40 years."
youtube.com/watch?v=LFPj8t…

@JVinos_Climate 22/J

Still mind-boggling that some people treat Vinós as credible on climate science, such as on Antarctic sea ice trends.

His deceptive tactics should be easy to spot.

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@JVinos_Climate 23/J

Vinós, making predictions:
"I like making predictions. They are a test of our understanding on how climate works."
judithcurry.com/2021/12/04/int…

Vinós, after his predictions fail:
"Nobody knows the future."
x.com/JVinos_Climate…

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@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley Bonus points:

- Saying in 2014 that post-1995 projected warming of 0.23°C/decade is "dangerous or rapid".
- Then saying in 2025 that post-1995 observed warming of ~0.25°C/decade is 'gentle'.

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

archive.is/32FiP#selectio…

@JVinos_Climate 24/J

To claim Vinós is credible on climate science one has to be either uninformed, disingenuous, and/or ideologically biased.

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[theclimatebrink.com/p/my-2026-and-…]

@JVinos_Climate @threadreaderapp unroll

@JVinos_Climate 25/J

You have to think your target audience is stupid for you to tell them your predictions for the future, and when those predictions fail, tell them you're not in the business of predicting the future.

Are Vinós' fans stupid?

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