Thread by @AtomsksSanakan

1/J

Back in 2019 Javier Vinós (@JVinos_Climate) made some predictions, and I made some in response.

This thread will assess the accuracy of those predictions.

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There are also ongoing predictions elsewhere

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2/J

In 2019 Vinós said:
"All the warming since 2013 and more will be lost."
judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/cli…

My response:
judithcurry.com/2019/02/07/cli…

He also predicted:
"no net warming over the first quarter of the 21st century"
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…

My response:
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…

3/J

Data through 2024 supports those predictions + falsifies Vinós claims.

(Data for prediction 3 has not be updated:
archive.is/TjamB)

On predictions 1, 2 , 5, and 6:

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

library.wmo.int/idurl/4/69455
[web.archive.org/web/2025031905…]
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…

4/J

On prediction 5:

"How much land ice is there in the World?
Most (99.5%) of the permanent ice volume in the world is locked up in ice sheets and glaciers."
antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-c…

library.wmo.int/idurl/4/69455
[web.archive.org/web/2025031905…]
climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ic…

5/J

There will be an update for prediction 4 when 'State of the Climate in 2024' is released

ametsoc.org/ams/publicatio…

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"Fig. 2.11. Monthly average global lower tropospheric temperature (LTT) anomalies (°C)"
ametsoc.net/sotc2023/SoCin…

6/J

In the interim with respect to predictions 2 and 4:

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

AIRS data:
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabled…

"the AIRS satellite data [...] also show 2024 as the warmest year on record"
carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…

7/J

And Vinós simply made up some new predictions instead of cogently addressing the failure of his past predictions.

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8/J

Climate science contrarians tend not to make accurate predictions.

Worth keeping in mind when you see contrarian claims from folks like Vinós.

x.com/Ciclodas/statu…
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x.com/TheDisproof/st…

x.com/FrederikSchenk…
x.com/AndrewDessler/…

9/J

Vinós predicts warming deceleration, while I + many others predict acceleration by 2035.

If acceleration happens, then expect more revisionism from Vinós + other contrarians.

nature.com/articles/d4158…
researchsquare.com/article/rs-607…

x.com/JVinos_Climate…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

10/J

1990-2030 and 1990-2040 trends would thus be ≥0.25°C/decade, contrary to Vinós guess.

psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…
[psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit…]

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Vinós in 2019:
archive.is/TK5ys#selectio…

11/J

Re: "≥0.25°C/decade"

To be assessed with 7 analyses.

1990-2025 so far, in °C/decade:
- ERA5: 0.25
- GISTEMP: 0.24
- NOAA: 0.23
- JRA-3Q: 0.21

archive.is/wi6UY
archive.is/DUuN0

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

climatechangetracker.org/igcc
[doi.org/10.5194/essd-1…]

12/J

≥0.25°C/decade for 1990-2030 and for 1990-2040 exceeds what contrarians predict in their objections to the IPCC's 1990 report.

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rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/09/global…

13/J

FYI, @NehrilO:

Vinós does not honestly admit when his predictions are wrong.
Only the credulous or uninformed believe him.

"Javier Vinós"
judithcurry.com/2024/07/05/hun…

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x.com/RyanMaue/statu…
x.com/NehrilO/status…

@NehrilO 14/J

More predictions Vinós will make excuses for when they fail, as usual.

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@NehrilO 15/J

h/t @histoireclimat

x.com/histoireclimat…

x.com/JVinos_Climate…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

@NehrilO @histoireclimat 16/J

Seems Vinós confused the projected rate for 1990-2100 with the smaller projected rate for early time periods such as 1990-2030.

The projected rate increased with time.

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
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Vinós in 2019:
archive.is/TK5ys#selectio…

@NehrilO @histoireclimat 17/J

Anyone want to ask the denialists to compare observed 1990-2025 warming to IPCC projections?

Would be fun watching them bravely run from what they previously said about it. 😁

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@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks

Starting with @mattwridley's 2025 admission below.

from 35:00 :
"warmed at [...] about a quarter of a degree per decade on average across the [...] last 30, 40 years"

@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley @grok How much global warming has happened from 1990 to 2025, to one decimal point?

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ERA: 0.25°C/decade
GISTEMP: 0.24°/decade
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…
[psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…]

18/J

Vinós in 2019:
"The warming predicted in 1990 was 0.3°C (0.2-0.5°C). The warming observed in HadCRUT4 is just 0.17°C, half the warming predicted."
judithcurry.com/2019/10/16/cli…

In response:
x.com/grok/status/19…
x.com/AtomsksSanakan…

19/J

Prepare for excuses while Arctic warming continues for years to come.

A revival of the 'cooling since 2016' meme. 🙄

psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/a…

x.com/JVinos_Climate…
x.com/hausfath/statu…

20/J

Re: "5/J
There will be an update for prediction 4 when 'State of the Climate in 2024' is released"

Prediction 4 was a tropospheric net warming trend for 2000-2024 (+ 2000-2025)
judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…

Prediction confirmed
ametsoc.net/sotc2024/SotC2…
[ametsoc.org/ams/publicatio…]

@threadreaderapp unroll

@NehrilO @histoireclimat @priscian @IBergwiesel @Ceist8 @TheDisproof @TWTThisIsNow @e_philalethes @joshlbrooks @mattwridley Dave Farina ('Professor Dave Explains') addresses this well in the video below.

48:44 to 55:02 :

21/J

The bottom panel of that image also falsifies Vinós' (@JVinos_Climate) 2019 claim on La Niñas causing cooling through 2024/2025.

x.com/AtomsksSanakan…
psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…

judithcurry.com/2019/02/08/sea…