Thread by @SharpFootball

best value 2025 NFL draft classes

1. Falcons
2. Browns
3. Cardinals
4. Eagles
5. Giants
6. Chiefs
7. Buccaneers
8. Steelers
9. Ravens
10. Bills

see pic for 1-32 plus methodology

READ FULL ANALYSIS:



team-by-team & round-by-round analysis to follow 🧵 sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-d…

2025 NFL draft player values by round:

most underdrafted (best values)

most overdrafted (worst values aka reaches)

Rounds 1-3 by best/worst player:

2025 NFL draft player values by round:

most underdrafted (best values)

most overdrafted (worst values aka reaches)

Rounds 4-5 by best/worst player:

now let's go team-by-team

let's analyze some of the best & worst draft classes one at a time

this analysis is based on the wisdom of crowds approach

by assigning draft capital via consensus 1st round mocks an consensus big boards to each draft pick pick, we can compare the total draft capital used to draft a player at a particular point in the draft relative to what was expected

full methodology is in the article but it uses research from @ArifHasanNFL to set expectations for mocks & big boards entering the 2025 NFL draft

the Falcons had the NFL's best draft based on value

just one year after ranking dead last in this metric they rank #1 in the NFL in 2025

Atlanta entered this draft without a lot of draft capital (4th lowest)

but they made it count, not reaching for ANY of their 5 picks

they were able to draft every single pick at or lower than was expected

it started with Jalon Walker slipping to them at pick 15 in the first round, and continued thru the third, fourth and seventh round selections

not a huge haul due to such few picks, but an outstanding job of finding value by the Falcons with those picks

the Browns finished #2 based on value

but most of that simply hinged on landing QB Shedeur Sanders at pick No. 144 when he was projected late first round by most boards

their only other player with draft value was RB Dylan Sampson in the fourth round (No. 126) when he was expected to go closer to pick No. 76

they reached tremendously for QB Dillon Gabriel in the third round (No. 94) when he was projected closer to pick No. 168

they also reached to a lesser degree on three others: TE Harrold Fannin Jr. in the third round and both second round selections (Carson Schwesinger and Quinshon Judkins)

a more revealing snapshot?

the Browns ranked #22 in this draft value metric thru the third round... but they finished much higher thanks to Sanders and Sampson in the late rounds

last year the Cardinals ranked #30 in this metric - but this year?

Arizona had the #1 most value in rounds 1-5 of any team

and they finished #3 overall

landing CB Will Johnson in the second round at pick 47 was tremendous after he was projected middle of the first round

they paired him with CB Denzel Burke out of Ohio State in the fifth round - was projected in closer to pick 135 and the Cardinals got him at pick 174

their biggest reach was Hayden Conner in the sixth round, but reaching for a player in the sixth round is certainly not a problem, and they finished #3 overall in 2025 draft value

a tremendous job of landing solid value by the Cardinals front office

as expected, Howie cooked

it doesn't seem fair but at this point, it's not surprising

Howie Roseman finished fourth in this metric in 2024 and picks up right where he left off by again finishing fourth in 2025

the draft started by nabbing Jihaad Campbell at No. 31 when he was projected mid-first round

but Howie REALLY cleaned up in round 6, drafting three players way below expectation, highlighted by OT Cameron Williams at No. 207 when he was expected to go No. 92

other picks later than expected included QB Kyle McCord, EDGE Antwaun Powell-Ryland and LB Smael Mondon Jr

the Eagles did so well in rounds 1-6 they packed up shop and left before the seventh round began, making ZERO picks in the seventh round

the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles just delivered another great NFL draft

the New York Giants round out the top-5, finishing with the #5 most draft value this year

while the Giants didn’t start the first round earning value, they landed a ton of it late in the draft

New York took EDGE Abdul Carter at No. 3 as expected and traded up to secure QB Jaxson Dart at No. 25

but they landed substantial value later:

RB Cam Skattebo at No. 105, projected No. 86
DL Darius Alexander at No. 65, projected No. 52

and especially OG Marcus Mbow at No. 154 after he was projected at No. 63

GM Joe Schoen finished below average in this metric in 2024, but was top-5 in 2025

the Kansas City Chiefs rank #6 in 2025 Draft Value

like the Eagles, the 2024 Chiefs made the Super Bowl AND had a great 2024 draft, finishing #3 in draft value last year

Kansas City landed first rounder OT Josh Simmons a little lower than he was projected

but they gave some value back with their three picks in rounds 2-3, taking all 3 defensive players slightly ahead of projection:

DL Omarr Norman-Lott at No. 63, projected at No. 88
EDGE Ashton Gillotte at No. 66, projected at No. 95
CB Nohl Williams at No. 85, projected at No. 102

which is why, thru 3 rounds, the Chiefs ranked a below average #18 in draft value

but they came back on Saturday with a vengeance:

all three picks the Chiefs made in rounds 4-7 were steals:

WR Jalen Royals at No. 133, projected at No. 74
LB Jeffrey Bassa at No. 156, projected at No. 125
RB Brashard Smith at No. 228, projected at No. 142

the value they accrued late was enough to vault the Chiefs to finishing with the #6 best draft value of the 2025 NFL draft

one of the most underrated GMs in the NFL has to be Tampa Bay's Jason Licht

he had the #7 best value of any team in the 2025 draft

while he gained a ton of draft value taking Oregon's Tez Johnson at pick No. 235 after he was forecast to go closer to pick No. 133...

Tampa's draft still ranked #11 in draft value thru 5 rounds

EDGE Elijah Roberts and CB Benjamin Morrison were two solid steals

Tampa took WR Emeka Egbuka at No. 19 overall, a little earlier than expected, but overall it was a solid use of draft capital this year for the Bucs

the Steelers had the #8 best draft based on value

but if you focus on what they did with higher value draft picks...

the Steelers ranked #6 in draft value thru the first five rounds

RB Kaleb Johnson at No. 83 when he was projected No. 54 and EDGE Jack Sawyer at No. 123 when he was projected No. 65 were their best values thru Round 5

and they added QB Will Howard in Round 6

overall, a top-10 draft by the Steelers after passing on Shedeur Sanders

no team had more draft value thru the first three rounds than the Baltimore Ravens

they ranked #1 thru Round 3 and #4 thru Round 5

their early value was anchored by their first two picks:

S Malaki Starks at No. 27 and EDGE Mike Green at No. 59

naturally, picking a K in the sixth round will ding your overall value, and they reached for WR LaJohntay Webster in the sixth

but after a top-10 draft value class in 2024, the Ravens followed it up in 2025

the Titans had the No. 1 overall pick, but also the No. 1 worst draft class based in value

it was led by several late round reaches

they drafted WR Chimere Dike in at pick No. 103, the first pick of the third round

but wasn't projected to be drafted anywhere in the top-200

they also grabbed CB Marcus Harris out of Cal at No. 183 and he was expected to be borderline undrafted by most talent evaluators

even the great value pick of Elic Ayomanor in the fourth round when he was expected to go earlier wasn't enough to pull the Titans out of ranking #32 in 2025 draft value

the 49ers were a sneaky call for a team that NEEDED to hit on the 2025 NFL Draft even though they have been a solid team for years

but after ranking #28 in draft value last year, the 49ers did even worse this year

ranking #31 in draft value, the 49ers had the 6th most draft capital and wasted a lot of it

WR Jordan Watkins out of Ole Miss was picked at No. 138 and wasn't ranked in the top-300 by consensus big boards

LB Nick Martin was drafted No. 75 but projected to go No. 192

and defensive backs Marques Sigle and Upton Stout represent additional multi-round reaches

going so far off the board for a second straight year puts the bullseye squarely on GM John Lynch

he could lose in draft value but be win overall if he's smarter than everyone else out there and these picks in 2024 and 2025 pay off

but if the back of this class falters, he's not going to have any excuses due to reaching on so many players