The NFL pushed the panic button 🚨

They have a ref in their rotation who is a MASSIVE edge to road teams

Road teams win at the #1 highest rate with him...

He penalizes home teams in ways no other ref does... and...

He's calling the Chiefs road game

sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/chiefs… it was a fascinating decision to put Shawn Smith on the Chiefs game

the last 3 years:

with other refs, home teams win 55.9%

but with Smith, home win rates drop to 40.8%

with other refs, home teams cover the spread 50.1%

but with Smith, home cover rates drop to 37.0%

it's not just WHO you play

the NFL doesn't control that

it's WHEN you play them

the NFL has 100% control of that

they set their schedule

unfortunately, I found the 2023 schedule is less fair & equitable at a historic level in many areas

a deep dive into the worst issues 🧵 let's look at schedule equity using a number of variables related to rest & prep

- Net rest edge
- More or less rest than opponent
- Opponent’s days to prep for your game
- Short week road games
- Games off road SNF/MNF
- Negated bye weeks

but first let's talk historic inequity

Howie Roseman's Eagles received the #3 best value of the 2023 draft based on expectations

CB Kelee Ringo was the #2 best value of the 4th round

he snagged DL Jalen Carter & EDGE Nolan Smith in the 1st round later than expected

another solid draft for a Super Bowl contender the Cleveland Browns ranked top-5 in draft value

they drafted 6 of their first 8 players later than expected

while they lacked picks in the first two rounds, they really capitalized on what they had at their disposal

best value 2023 NFL draft classes

1. Giants
2. Steelers
3. Eagles
4. Bengals
5. Browns
6. Titans
7. Broncos
8. Dolphins
9. Colts
10. Jaguars

see pic for 1-32 plus methodology

team-by-team & round-by-round analysis to follow 🧵 2023 NFL draft player selections:

most underdrafted (best values)

and overdrafted (worst values)

by round (rounds 1-5)

QBs on cheap rookie deals are values

but how often do they actually achieve the goal of building a true contender?

why have many teams found Super Bowl glory by acquiring older, vet QBs of late?

a 🧵 sharing data behind 1st round QB success & failure

foxsports.com/stories/nfl/sh… only 5 QBs have won a Super Bowl since 2014:

Patrick Mahomes
Matthew Stafford
Tom Brady
Nick Foles
Peyton Manning

what do the last 4 have in common?

they won a Super Bowl for a team that didn’t draft them, but instead acquired them, and most did so in Year 1 with the new team

the NFL is broken if we have teams hoping for an upside of Brock Purdy in an ideal world... while Lamar is on the market

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1640729332934144000

it is inexcusable the way the Ravens have managed the WR position

Eric DeCosta's comments show an awareness that his track record drafting WRs is bad & some teams are better/worse scouting certain positions

so let's discuss how Baltimore has managed the WR position recently

1/ the last 3 years COMBINED, the Ravens have ranked #31 in WR spending

only ONE team spent less on WRs than the Ravens

that was with a young QB in Lamar Jackson, who was both:

1) on a cheap rookie deal

2) could use solid vet WR(s) to help him develop & gain comfort

the 18 longest passes from Kyler Murray in 2022

👀

Murray went 1-of-18 on these attempts

613 total air yards

only 32 yards gained

his 5.6% is the lowest completion % for any QB targeting these distances since at least 2000

longest attempt first…ordered in descending length on all pass attempts over 20 yards last year

out of 35 QBs, Kyler Murray ranked:

#35 in EPA/att: -0.39

#35 in success rate: 21.7%

#35 in YPA: 5.7

#35 in passer rating: 18.4

#34 in comp %: 10-of-46 (21.7%)

Andy Reid & Patrick Mahomes were impervious to whatever was thrown at them last year

literally everything defenses tried to throw at them, they solved

it was truly amazing

they destroyed man or zone, didn't matter... Mahomes and Reid completely solved their issues with 2-high which had existed in 2020 & 2021...

we know the Bengals O-Line is injured

4 key aspects of the Bengals pass game today:

1️⃣ Burrow's has NFL’s fastest time to throw

2️⃣ Cincy has NFL’s #1 highest pass rate

3️⃣ Bills pressure rate ⬇️ without Von Miller

4️⃣ Bills D vs quick WR passes

let’s discuss | @SportsGrid 1️⃣ 72% of Joe Burrow's passes since Week 13 have come in less than 2.5 seconds

that's #1 in the NFL

the NFL average is 52%

37% of his WR passes are coming out in less than 2 seconds

the NFL has just massively incentivized the following for Week 18:

KC to win vs LVR
BUF to win vs NE
CIN to win vs BAL
BAL to win vs CIN

let's walk through the scenarios for every team impacted

1/x a KC win ensures they are the 1-seed AND would host the AFCCG vs any team other than BUF

unless BUF loses to NE...

in which case KC hosts the AFCCG

it's a tough task to discuss how the NFL plans to finish the season given the uncertainties, our heavy hearts & continued prayers for Damar Hamlin

very soon the NFL must decide how they are going to proceed with the season

let's clarify the options:

sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/what-… most people assume the game CIN-BUF will not be resumed at a later date

let's discuss both options, resumed or canceled

if is canceled:

standings are calculated on win % (as usual)

current AFC Standings and win %:

0.812 - KC (13-3)
0.800 - BUF (12-3)
0.733 - CIN (11-4)

it’s almost as if having Matt Patricia in your ear as a young QB instead of a real OC is a bad plan ah well, at least Mac Jones and the Patriots have the #5 most expensive WR in the NFL vs the cap

it's crazy but Nelson Agholor's $14.9M cap hit this year is 5th most expensive in the NFL

and NE is spending $70M on their receiving corps this yr (WR+TE)

by FAR #1 most in the NFL

nearly $45M signing bonus?

keeps all $45M

$46M salary for 2022?

keeps $45.65M

remaining fully guaranteed $184M?

keeps all $184M

6 game suspension?

equal to DeAndre Hopkins for "trace" amount of a PED in 1 test

games missed?

NFL gave CLE the #1 easiest schedule weeks 1-6

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1554083444698890241

Calvin Ridley suspended 1 YEAR for non-criminal betting on games

Mychal Kendricks suspended 8 games for insider trading

Myles Garrett suspended 6 games for ONE on-field fight

MLB's Trevor Bauer suspended 2 YEARS costing him $60M for non-criminal sexual assault allegations

holy shit!! what a truly ignorant quote on Lamar Jackson from a current NFL DC Lamar Jackson's early down PASSING outside the numbers last year:

#1 in YPA (9.2)
#1 in success rate (57%)
#1 in EPA/att (+0.33)

while averaging 9.4 air yards per attempt (5th highest)...

while being blitzed on 32% of attempts (5th highest)...

but he's not a quarterback

I’ve read some outrageous things before but this is next level insanity

the Panthers really traded away...

2nd
3rd
4th
4th
5th
6th

all to assemble a QB room of:

Sam Darnold
Baker Mayfield
Matt Corral Carolina tried to take the short cut at the QB position

Rhule's ego led him to think he knew better than other NFL teams

he never wanted to rebuild, teach a young QB & deal with growing pains

he wanted wins ready-made out of the box with vet QBs other teams knew didn't work

BY FAR this is the best fantasy football dispute I’ve ever heard of 😂😂

the detail Joc is willing to divulge is priceless

the fact that this turned into a physical altercation pregame in a MLB outfield with benches clearing 💀🤣

it will NEVER be topped
I think this was week 8 of 2020

clues: Joc said it was over a yr ago & Jeff Wilson was on the IR in one league

wk 6 Mostert got injured

pre-wk 7 Tommy picked up Wilson who went off for 117 & 3 TDs

pre-wk 8 Wilson landed on IR

unsure who Joc put on IR to start the controversy

it's not just WHO you play

it's WHEN you play them

the NFL has complete control over it & presented their schedule

unfortunately I found the 2022 NFL schedule is less fair & equitable than last years in many areas

a deep dive into the worst issues:

✍ nbcsportsedge.com/article/offsea… let's look at schedule equity using a number of variables related to rest and prep:

- Net rest edges
- Opponent’s days to prepare for your game
- More or less rest than opponent
- Short week road games
- Games off road SNF/MNF
- Negated bye weeks
- 4 games in 17 days?

whoa this is big

for the last DECADE (since 2012) Dan Snyder has underreported ticket revenue per the investigation

he raised prices & categorized surplus revenue as bogus licensing fees related to concerts/CFB games to prevent sharing with other owners

documentcloud.org/documents/2158… details "two sets of books"

"a set that's submitted to the NFL that doesn't include [the extra revenue]"...

"but then there's a set of books that's kept internally shown to Mr. Snyder...and his inner circle maybe, that shows what we actually did, which would include the juice"

I don't think people realize how important the release of the schedule is

it's not WHO you play, we knew that

the NFL doesn't control that

the NFL controls WHEN you play, how much rest you have & if you have an edge

it's crazy how imbalanced it is

✍ nbcsports.com/edge/article/o… here's a comparison of the teams with the best or worst rest edges this year vs the prior decade

some teams continue to get the short end of the stick, particularly:

Giants
Bears
Patriots
Colts