Inventing custom, predictive NFL analytics & visualized data at https://t.co/iKdUa4MmXQ || no days off notifications on 🔔 YOUTUBE: https://t.co/gGWmO4yXjz
- Net rest edge
- More or less rest than opponent
- Opponent’s days to prep for your game
- Short week road games
- Games off road SNF/MNF
- Negated bye weeks
- 3 games in 10 days (what??!!)
but first let's talk historic inequity
Jan 23, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The NFL pushed the panic button 🚨
They have a ref in their rotation who is a MASSIVE edge to road teams
Road teams win at the #1 highest rate with him...
He penalizes home teams in ways no other ref does... and...
with other refs, home teams cover the spread 50.1%
but with Smith, home cover rates drop to 37.0%
May 16, 2023 • 28 tweets • 8 min read
it's not just WHO you play
the NFL doesn't control that
it's WHEN you play them
the NFL has 100% control of that
they set their schedule
unfortunately, I found the 2023 schedule is less fair & equitable at a historic level in many areas
a deep dive into the worst issues 🧵
let's look at schedule equity using a number of variables related to rest & prep
- Net rest edge
- More or less rest than opponent
- Opponent’s days to prep for your game
- Short week road games
- Games off road SNF/MNF
- Negated bye weeks
but first let's talk historic inequity
Apr 30, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Howie Roseman's Eagles received the #3 best value of the 2023 draft based on expectations
CB Kelee Ringo was the #2 best value of the 4th round
he snagged DL Jalen Carter & EDGE Nolan Smith in the 1st round later than expected
another solid draft for a Super Bowl contender
the Cleveland Browns ranked top-5 in draft value
they drafted 6 of their first 8 players later than expected
while they lacked picks in the first two rounds, they really capitalized on what they had at their disposal
it’s almost as if having Matt Patricia in your ear as a young QB instead of a real OC is a bad plan
ah well, at least Mac Jones and the Patriots have the #5 most expensive WR in the NFL vs the cap
it's crazy but Nelson Agholor's $14.9M cap hit this year is 5th most expensive in the NFL
and NE is spending $70M on their receiving corps this yr (WR+TE)
by FAR #1 most in the NFL
Aug 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
nearly $45M signing bonus?
keeps all $45M
$46M salary for 2022?
keeps $45.65M
remaining fully guaranteed $184M?
keeps all $184M
6 game suspension?
equal to DeAndre Hopkins for "trace" amount of a PED in 1 test
- Net rest edges
- Opponent’s days to prepare for your game
- More or less rest than opponent
- Short week road games
- Games off road SNF/MNF
- Negated bye weeks
- 4 games in 17 days?