Thread by @DrRadchenko

So, since I am a fan of primary sources, let's go through the new US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund Agreement: . At first, it's pretty bad. At second, it (possibly?) amounts to little. An explainer.kmu.gov.ua/storage/app/up…

The first part - WHEREAS - explains the underlying intentions and principles. This bit, to me, is pretty interesting. I guess this refers to denying Russia any future economic stake in Ukraine. But it could mean anything. It could mean excluding China, for example.

Note the weird wording here: "acknowledges" (doesn't mean "accepts"). There is more blah-blah-blah in this agreement about how it will sit in the context of Ukraine's possible future membership in the European Union and common market. EU lawyers will not be happy.

Good to know! At least it's not an entirely colonial agreement.

Long-term strategic alignment! Notice what's missing. Correct: Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Not hugely surprising. Still, worth noting.

On the other hand. This agreement overrides any current and future Ukrainian laws. Yep, this is bad.😳

Well, at least it's well intentioned.

Oh, boy. No taxes of *any kind* paid on pay-ins or pay-outs. That's bad-bad-bad.

On the other hand, at least the Ukrainians will not be required to pay the US federal income tax. It's a big victory for "democratic values, market principles and the rule of law." 😄

🤔

This is about how the US will increase its stake in the agreement. A very slippery formulation here. When Ukraine purchases US weapons, this is *also* a form of military assistance. So, in theory, this could allow the US to not just receive payments for its weapons but also increase its stake in the partnership. I don't know if this was the intention, or just an oversight, but any lawyer will tell you this is a very problematic provision (from Ukraine's point of view).

But I think the real intention here was to cover gratis military aid. So, now, when the US writes off its old systems, instead of just decommissioning them, it could send them to Ukraine, priced accordingly, and have this counted as a US contribution to this mineral rights fund.

Crazy, uh? I can just see endless opportunities for abuse here. Also, note that even *training* Ukrainians in the use of these weapons can be included as part of the US contribution. 🤑

The next section basically gives the Fund the right of first refusal in relation to any public-private investment in Ukraine. This goes far beyond mineral rights.

This bit is interesting and amounts to a major US concession (thanks!) compared to the previous drafts. No law of New York or whatever. There is no actual effective dispute settlement mechanism here. The parties just agree to work it out.

That's an insane provision. Even Stalin, when he imposed "joint enterprises" on Soviet neighbors (e.g. China), would limit himself to 30 or 25 years. This agreement has *not term limit*, and has no effective renunciation mechanism. Crazy? Yes.

But remember I said at the beginning the whole thing amount to little? This is why. Going back to WHEREAS. Unless there is some secret protocol to this agreement, like to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, it seems that what this agreement actually applies to still remains to be negotiated.

At least I hope so. I hope we'll see some discussion of this in the forthcoming Rada ratification, which would be required to see this agreement enter into force. This will also show Zelensky's true power. If he successfully stuffs this down the deputies' throats, he can do anything.