Thread by @CEBKCEBKCEBK

*If the IRGC dissolves* then Iran quickly goes from costly menace to productive & grateful & useful regional ally (Iraq was different). I’m happy the US is helping Israel prevent them from getting nukes & offing their leadership. But IRGC won’t fold so regime change’d go very bad

If anything, helping the mullahs retain their official power might be good for weakening IRGC, bc the mullahs are so unpopular & weak, & bc they can only retain influence by further strengthening the liberal-democratic apparatus & culture, to keep IRGC from taking ever more power

Perhaps that’s ten times “too cute.” But the only thing that matters for actual regime there change is IRGC, & it’s the only actual reason regime change there is an awful idea, & everyone seems to be ignoring it like they ignored consanguinity, Sunni-Shia tensions, etc in Iraq 03

Still: seems like nobody serious is actually pushing regime change; providing Israel equipment etc for these targeted strikes is good by Trump, despite the haters, & despite the fans who say “let’s do regime change;” maybe Khamenei steps down, but if anything that gives IRGC room

I don’t really have political views on this (tho yes avoiding IRGC with nukes is worth Israel spending several US billions on airstrikes, & an attempt at regime change would make Iraq look easy)—If I did, I’d work on it instead of posting. But I care about understanding the world

In fact, I don’t really have political views period, at least on the internet; I just appreciate discourse that’s discursively fruitful. This conflict will never be affected by me, but I can affect my own personal development through it, by making mechanistic predictions about it

& it should go without saying that goodwill, productivity, stability, etc all go bye-bye if IRGC gets excuses to go all-out, including on their home turf, with presumable Russian/Chinese backing (another thing we didn’t really face in Iraq). Terrible idea!

In the unlikely event that this potential operation winds up as regime change rather than targeted limited strikes, & in the unlikely event that regime change somehow winds up working well, my guess is IRGC somehow immediately lost will & capacity to do *anything*—happened w Hezb

Which makes me realize the Hezb news is odd: huge durable paramilitary terror cartel deep state & it just seemingly evaporates after the pager attack—which Google says only killed dozens—& allows the Aoun election to marginalize it; maybe phones mean nobody wants to fight anymore

Seems v unlikely IRGC would fold at all easily—& if anything drones etc from Russia mean it should be even easier than one might otherwise expect for them to unleash total DPRK-but-competent on everyone, conditional on anything like war. But I wouldn’t’ve predicted Hezb folding…