Thread by @Nadav_Eyal

1/The Iran - Israel War, Day 8. We are now a week after Israel launched what it labeled its *preemptive strike* against Iran, effectively beginning the war. It’s time to assess what both sides have achieved - and where things stand.
Let’s begin with Israel.
first, Israel focused its opening move on decapitating Iran’s senior military leadership and targeting around two dozen nuclear scientists involved in Iran’s secret weapons program. It then moved to nuclear installations and surface-to-surface ballistic missile infrastructure.

The results have surpassed Israeli and international expectations.

In the first 48 hours, Israel killed the most senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, the Iranian military, and the air force. It assassinated the Iranian Chief of Staff.
His replacement relocated to what Iran considered its most secret command bunker, deep in the mountains. Israel struck there too. He fled to a secondary command center in Tehran. He was killed there.
(photo I took myself in Ramat Gan, two days ago).

2/ After this initial shock-and-awe phase, focused on leadership decapitation, the IDF turned its attention to nuclear installations and surface-to-surface ballistic missiles. The Natanz centrifuge facility suffered heavy damage and the AIEA assumes its centrifuges casscades are damaged beyond repair.

The Isfahan nuclear site, where Iran was working on how to convert enriched uranium into material suitable for a warhead, was also heavily struck.

Other research sites involved in Iran’s weapons group- the part of the program focused on constructing a bomb or a warhead - were destroyed.

The Fordow nuclear site, deep in the mountains, was hit only on the surface. Even without U.S. involvement, Israeli officials say they have contingencies in place for Fordow.

As for ballistic missiles:
Israel has destroyed between a third to a half of Iran’s launchers and several hundred missiles.
The Israeli Air Force now operates with real-time intelligence from rather freely flying over west Iran to Teheran - after dismantling nearly all of its effective air defenses.A senior Israeli security source put it bluntly:
“Now, with no limits on air attacks inside Iran - and given the vast military infrastructure they’ve built - it’s like a candy shop for us. Hard to choose what to hit first".
Much of Israel's success is due to the superb performance of its military intelligence branch (AMAN) and technological capabilities. This may be the first time in history that high-tech intelligence tools have produced such a deadly impact and a potential military victory.

3/ On Iran’s side: its main achievement has been the continued launch of ballistic missiles into Israel.

These have increasingly targeted civilian areas, which Israeli intelligence sources say is a deliberate strategy - ordered directly by the Supreme Leader.

While Iran has also aimed extensively at Israeli military bases and we can assume substantial damage, Israel’s success in targeting launchers has substantially reduced the daily volume of fire. Still, Iran continues to probe and study Israeli air defenses. Israel is also managing to intercept much of what Iran is launching and denies having a shortage of interceptors—though it's clear their supply is not unlimited

Just yesterday, it launched a major barrage that struck Soroka Hospital in Be'er Sheva and neighborhoods near Tel Aviv.
For Iran, hitting civilians is strategic.

First, They’ve long funded Hamas and Hezbollah and see the entire State of Israel as illegitimate, and see terror attacks against Israeli civilians as always justified. Targeting the home front is an extension of that ideology - and a deliberate focus on what they see as Israel’s “soft spot”: civilian life.

4/ To understand how central this is:
Up to now, Iran has not managed to kill a single Israeli soldier in this war by its ballistic missiles attacks.
But more than two dozen Israeli civilians have been killed, and there has been massive damages in urban areas.

So far, the Islamic Republic has not seen significant internal protests as a result of the war - something both Israel and the U.S. are still hoping will happen.

Iran is clearly under growing distress and has been humiliated regionally, but striking Israeli civilian targets remains popular in parts of the Muslim world - particularly after Gaza. As to the future. The regime is banking - correctly- that no one is talking about boots on the ground. The regime is signaling that it will return to negotiations if hostilities cease. However, it still refuses to abandon uranium enrichment - for now.

5/ Let’s talk about the most decisive issue now shaping this war: U.S. involvement.

Yesterday, I spoke with a senior Israeli officer who put it bluntly:

“We’ve been coordinated with the U.S. from the very beginning. They knew about the planning, the drills, our current and future ammunition needs. They’ve assisted us not only in defense but also in the intelligence needed for strikes inside Iran.”

When I asked whether this coordination came from the President, he clarified:

“The dialogue is always military to military - in this case, with CENTCOM. But I assume everything is done with the commander-in-chief’s approval.”

And now, the United States - or rather, President Trump - must decide.

6/ In the past 24 hours, the White House has publicly floated the possibility of negotiations with Iran and hinted at a diplomatic breakthrough; the Iranian foreign minister made clear they wont negotiate under fire. I'm not sure its the answer the WH was waiting for. US military build-up in the Middle East is not slowing and Israel still asseses that the President is more positive as to a US strike.
Washington holds the cards. But Israel's defence apparatuas message is clear:
Hit Fordow first.
Cripple some of Iran’s nuclear capabilities—what we didn’t finish. Then negotiate.
Don’t fall into a long, drawn-out, Iran-style war of attrition disguised as diplomacy.
Decision-making in D.C. is flexible.
And to be fair—this is a huge decision for any U.S. administration.

Iran has far greater ability to hit short-range targets across the Gulf than in Israel.

And Israel is still bracing for Iran to deploy weapons it hasn’t used yet—cruise missiles, and 1-ton warhead ballistic missiles, which could cause massive devastation if launched.

7/ So what are the exit scenarios?
First, it’s important to say:
This conflict hasn’t matured to the point of exit, as of yet.
Iran feels humiliated but hasn’t hit its limit.
Israel wants to finish what it started.

Senior Israeli officers told me they believe it may take just a few more days to achieve the original strategic goals.
Now, the scenarios:

1. U.S. joins.
More Iranian nuclear sites are hit—including Fordow.
Then, President Trump agrees to negotiate—with a depleted, less nuclear-capable Iran.
Israel halts operations when asked.
Hostilities stop. Negotiations begin.
Outcome uncertain.

2. U.S. stays out, but still wants a deal.
Trump decides not to strike but believes talks will work.
In this case, he might prefer that Israel continues to strike, giving the U.S. leverage over Iran at the negotiating table.
Many key unknowns. Here's one:
Will the deal address Iran’s ballistic missile program?
Intelligence sources have grown increasingly concerned not just about enrichment—but about Iran’s national missile project.
Estimates say Iran aimed to have 8,000–9,000 ballistic missiles within two years.
Enough to devastate Israel without a nuclear bomb.

8/ Scenario 3.
U.S. stays out, Israel finishes the job.
Israel strikes Fordow and other sites alone.
Hostilities end without any formal agreement.
Iran may declare it’s leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Diplomatic efforts to reach a new agreement. My guess is that when the dust settles, it turns out Iran's nuclear program suffered a much heavier blow than suspected now. Still, if this leads them to break for a bomb/ Israel needing to attack again and again in the next few years, its not a good result. This is why
One senior Israeli military official told me:
“Our goal is to fight all the way to a good agreement.”
That’s an enormous undertaking, especially given the pace and style in which the Islamic Republic negotiates.
Few experts believe that even now, the Supreme Leader is willing to let go of enrichment.

Another question: Will Hezbollah join the war?
That would be a strategic mistake. Israel has plans in place for that contingency.

9/ Bottom line: For now, the Islamic Republic has been humiliated, and Israel holds the upper hand. In Tehran, a war of attrition - or a dragged negotiation - is clearly under consideration.

However, if it feels that the survival of the theocracy is at stake, Khamenei may do what his predecessor, Khomeini, once did: drink from 'the chalice of poison' and agree to international demands. For that to happen, U.S. involvement is indispensable. What Israel began, only the United States can finish with real effectiveness. Yet even if Washington chooses to stand aside, the Middle East is already a different place.
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