Thread by @tomaspueyo

Now that the 🇺🇸US has bombed 3 of 🇮🇷Iran's nuclear sites, where will the war go from here?
It depends on 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵

🇮🇷Iran never wanted the war, and its forces are being decimated. Its ability to send missiles to 🇮🇱Israel is being degraded every day. If it could sign a ceasefire while saving face, it would

Meanwhile, 🇮🇱Israel has kept striking Iran non stop. Its daily airstrikes didn't go down substantially in the first few days. Its ability to keep striking 🇮🇷Iran remains unabated

So when will it stop?

🇮🇱Israel's PM Netanyahu laid it clearly: The goal was to remove the existential threats of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. More details from the IDF Chief of Staff below.

So Israel must destroy these programs
But more importantly, it will make sure they never come back

🇮🇱Israel can destroy the ballistic missiles program, but it couldn't destroy the nuclear program.

That's why the 🇺🇸US intervened just for that, and dropped many superheavy bunker-busting bombs on 3 nuclear sites in 🇮🇷Iran

This is the result of the bombing of the Isfahan facility:

Bombing the facilities is not enough if 🇮🇷Iran can rebuild them. That's why 🇮🇱Israel has killed at least 14 nuclear scientists.

So is it close to being done? No

🇮🇱Israel doesn't know where 🇮🇷Iran's 400kg of 60%-enriched uranium are. The IAEA can't find any radioactivity in the bombed sites, so uranium was probably not there. Where then?

AFAIK, other nuclear sites haven't been bombed, like Mt Kolang Gaz La (more deeply buried)

This is why prediction markets don't think Israel will stop its operations against Iran before the end of the month

The problem is that, even if Israel succeeds destroying everything, it's still possible for Iran to build a bomb. It would take years, but now Iran would have a massive incentive to do it, and it would do so secretively

That's why Israel will want to end Khamenei

But it's not just Khamenei who is anti-Israel. The entire regime is. So Israel will try to topple it

So we can expect many more days of bombings, where 🇮🇱Israel will:
• Finish the job with the ballistic and nuclear programs
• Try to kill Khamenei
• Try to topple the 🇮🇷Iranian government

More details here



The next question becomes: will the Iranian regime fall?
I’ll tackle that nextunchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/where-will-t…