Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
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Ordinant 🇺🇸🇺🇦 Profile picture Domingo Gallardo Profile picture Antone Johnson • @antonej or @antone everywhere 👋 Profile picture eDo Profile picture Ross Grayson, MPH, CIH Profile picture 90 subscribed
Nov 21 26 tweets 6 min read
Most ppl are missing the key point regarding OpenAI
This is not standard startup drama
This is literally a fight for the survival of humanity, linked to the original purpose of OpenAI: saving us from the end of the world:
🧵 Why doesn't @sama make 💰 from OpenAI?
Why is the company ruled by a non-profit that doesn't make 💰?
Because the goal of OpenAI is not to develop the most capable AI (that would make 💰). It's to be the first to figure out how to SAFELY create an immensely powerful AI
Nov 14 23 tweets 6 min read
The biggest difference I see between Israel and Palestine's strategies:
🇮🇱deals with physical realities—realpolitik
🇵🇸deals with narratives

Let's start with Israel 🇮🇱REALPOLITIK
1. Kill Hamas
After the 10/7 massacre, when 🇮🇱 decided to eliminate Hamas, it was not a narrative. It wants to *physically* kill all Hamas militants
Nov 13 15 tweets 6 min read
The 2 false narratives of Israel & Palestine:
🇮🇱: Everything we do is for self-defense
🇵🇸: We are oppressed ppl who just want freedom

Things are more complicated than any side wants to admit

Let's start with Israel: 🇮🇱: "Everything we do is for self-defense"
A lot of what Israel does is for self-defense or can at least be argued this way:
• Gaza bombing? We need to eliminate terrorist Hamas
• West Bank (WB) military control? To protect our eastern flank & eliminate local terrorists
Nov 11 10 tweets 4 min read
The conflict between Israelis & Palestinians has been raging for a century, but 4 long-term trends might make future agreements easier:
1. Solar energy
2. Desalination
3. Oil
4. Fertility Image 1. Solar Energy
Solar energy cost drop ~12%/year➡️It halves every 5 years
The Israeli desert (Negev) receives a lot of sunlight➡️the value of desert land is increasing as a source of energy Image
Nov 9 22 tweets 6 min read
How can Israel and Palestine reach peace?
I'm going to propose something that I haven't seen before
But to make sense of it, we 1st need to understand the pbm: Why haven't they reached peace before?

Because they don't want it hard enough: Image In this previous thread, I describe what peace would look like
We were so close in the 2001 (Taba) and 2009 (Annapolis) negotiations!
Why didn't they sign these agreements?
Nov 2 22 tweets 8 min read
It doesn't look like Israel & Palestine can reach a peace agreement now, but they totally can. They nearly did in the past.
Here are the 4 factors that matter:
1. Borders
2. Security
3. East Jerusalem
4. Right of Return
Don't let anybody tell you it's impossible. Details: Israelis & Palestinians (🇮🇱&🇵🇸) nearly reached an agreement in Camp David (2000) and Taba, Egypt (2001), between Yasser Arafat (🇵🇸) & Ehud Barak (🇮🇱)

As a 🇵🇸 official said, "If Camp David was too little, Taba was too late."

Why? Image
Oct 31 17 tweets 6 min read
To understand the Israel-Palestine conflict, you need to the 3 groups that struggle for Israel's soul today:
1. The Peace Camp
2. The Nationalist Bloc
3. The Religious Bloc
Here's how they each think and why: Image 1. The Idealism of the Peace Camp
They had the most influence until the 1990s. They sought peace with Palestinians through a 2-state solution

They signed the Oslo Accords in the 90s & gave some West Bank areas to Palestinians for self-mgmt: Zones A & B
Oct 26 26 tweets 9 min read
You can't understand the West Bank if you don't understand Israeli settlements. They are one of the biggest sources of frustration for Palestinians

What are they?
Why are they there?
Why so contentious?
What should we do about them?
Here are the details: First, you need to understand the 4 reasons why some Israelis support settlements:

1. Defense
Israel's neighbors attacked it 3 times from the east
Its main enemies (Syria, Iran) are there

Higher ground=more defensible
Easier early warnings Image
Oct 24 17 tweets 4 min read
Should Israel and Palestine consider a 3-state solution?

It makes sense politically, economically, and geographically: Gaza is meant to be a maritime city-state:
Small, Flat, Dense, Urban, Coastal

If it were managed for prosperity, it could be a Tel Aviv or Dubai
Oct 19 22 tweets 6 min read
Why were Hamas's attacks against Israel so vicious?
Didn't it know what would come next?
What was it trying to achieve?

They did it because Gaza is in a trap: geographic, political, economical, psychological, religious... Let's understand it

The Gaza Trap: First: How violent were Hamas's attacks?
Here's a montage of a few videos that have circulated in the past week and speak for themselves
Don't watch if you don't want to be shocked
Oct 17 28 tweets 9 min read
Why does Egypt keep the border with Gaza closed?
Why are there more Palestinian refugees in Jordan than in Palestine?
Why doesn't Lebanon grant citizenship to Palestinian refugees?

Do Arab countries really support Palestine?
It's not as it seems: Image The official Arab support for Palestine is strong.
Up till very recently, most Arab countries only recognized Palestine (yellow on the map). This is from 2019: Image
Oct 15 21 tweets 7 min read
Something useful to remember when discussing decolonization

The principle of 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐀𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐲 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧: Let's start with a typical example of colonization: the Spanish Empire

𝟏. 𝐀𝐳𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐬
AMLO, president of Mexico, has asked Spain to apologize many times for its colonization of America Image
Oct 12 39 tweets 12 min read
Who has a fair claim on the region of Israel and Palestine?

It's time to go deep to understand:
• History
• Geography
• Religion
• Legal claims
• Morality
• And more: Who was there 1st? The Canaanites, about 3k years ago (1200 BC), ancestors of both Jews and Arabs Image
Oct 4 23 tweets 9 min read
Why should the West support Ukraine?
Besides being the right thing to do & fighting imperialism

Because Ukraine can be a world superpower when it's finally free from invasions like Russia's

That's because Ukraine has some of the best land in the world, and one fatal weakness: (reposting this because when I posted it, the algo was broken. Please repost if you did last time!)

Ukraine is in the middle of a massive flat plain, great for agriculture.
Plants➡️Food➡️People Image
Oct 3 13 tweets 5 min read
Look at this image and guess: Where was the historic Hungary / Austro-Hungarian Empire?
(see below) Image For over 1,000 years, Hungary, and later the Austro-Hungarian Empire, have occupied this plain surrounded by mountains that protected it.
Sep 12 15 tweets 4 min read
Why are some animal species more colorful?
Why do some have harems?

A huge factor: Do they live in a 2D or 3D environment?
Here's why: Image In a 3D environment like water or air, it's very hard to control a partner. They will swim or fly away, hide between rocks or trees...

As a result, males will have to be very attractive to females to have sex

In many species, they'll do that through colorful skin & feathers Image
Aug 29 22 tweets 9 min read
Why is Ukraine not a global superpower?

The question seems weird until you realize Ukraine has some of the best land in the world.
But it also has one fatal weakness.

Here are the forces that have driven Ukraine's evolution to this day: Ukraine is in the middle of a massive flat plain, which is great for agriculture.
Plants➡️Food➡️People Image
Aug 28 22 tweets 9 min read
Why is Ukraine not a global superpower?

The question seems weird until you realize Ukraine has some of the best land in the world.
But it also has one fatal weakness.

Here are the forces that have driven Ukraine's evolution to this day: Ukraine is in the middle of a massive flat plain, which is great for agriculture.
Plants➡️Food➡️People Image
Aug 8 20 tweets 6 min read
I'm tired of the lazy reporting on loneliness:

"We have a loneliness epidemic, it's making ppl miserable & killing them. Probably due to social media, phones, suburban life, or smthg. Let's go back to meeting in real life!"


Yes, we do spend more time alone: Image As time passes, we live more and more alone Image
Aug 1 55 tweets 13 min read
All my geography posts in one place

(I'll add more as I make them)

1. Maps distort the world
2. How did the Mediterranean sea form?
Jul 29 25 tweets 9 min read
50% of humans live in this circle
But why?
It's not a coincidence

It's because of a single, massive accident
Let's zoom in: 🇵🇰Pakistan 230M
🇮🇳India 1,400M
🇳🇵Nepal 30M
🇧🇩Bangladesh 170M
🇲🇲Burma 54M
🇹🇭Thailand 71M
🇻🇳Vietnam 97M
🇨🇳China 1,400B
🇹🇼Taiwan 23M
🇮🇩Indonesia 274M
🇲🇾Malaysia 33M
🇵🇭Philippines 114M
🇯🇵Japan 126M
🇰🇵NK 26M
🇰🇷SK 52M
Did one thing cause most of these?!