- African pop growth is overestimated
- The winners of the 21st century will be the most successful states at attracting immigrants
- Which countries would benefit from receiving hundreds of millions of migrants, and why.
- What does the majority think about migration?
- The problem of Gen Z vs. Gen ɑ
- What do Germany and Japan have in common
- The optimal size for a country
- Terraforming Siberia
- How elderly Germans are changing their minds about immigration&seek it instead of fearing it
- How Bulgaria’s immigration approach has is doomed
“The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.”—William Gibson @GreatDismal
The future is already in the brain of the 200 million cryptocurrency holders. They can be better understood as a country, as an alternative community to nation-states.
A nation-state citizen doesn’t question the sovereignty of the gov
Doesn’t question the validity of its currency
Doesn’t fathom a world without the TVs and radio stations and notary-publics and certification organisms that make the nation-state what it is.
They wrap their heads around 20th-century country flags.
They can’t fathom the end of the nation-state, just as 1500s-era Europeans couldn’t fathom the end of the omnipotent Catholic Church.
If you catch COVID, the risk of developing COVID Chronic Fatigue Syndrome are 3,000x higher than those of suffering a bad vaccine side-effect. That illness can leave you out of work and energy for the rest of your life.
The most long-lasting part of Long COVID is likely Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, which so far has no cure and can last decades.
Your likelihood of catching it from COVID is ~2-3%, and it's worse for young ppl than old ppl
Over my career managing billion-dollar tech products with hundreds of millions of users, studying storytelling, and writing COVID and Uncharted Territories articles, I've come to think the biggest pbm of mankind is that we don't know how to make decisions.
I want to solve that.
The 3-week course would include frameworks, lectures, and more importantly, workshops so you can bring pbms to the table and we can work to solve them together, learning decision-making along the way.
The end of you country is coming because of internet and blockchain.
We know this because it has already happened several times in the past. Each time a new information tech appears, a new type of government appears. 🧵
Consider the Catholic Church in the 1500s
Dozens of movements protesting the Church appear over the centuries. But the Church systematically quashed them. It's easy to burn a heretic and his writings.
At the time, the Church was the most powerful entity because of it monopoly on information.
The clergy was educated, it had access to plenty of books, it could read (Latin, which most books were written on), they learned secrets via confessions, they had a monopoly on the word of God (locals spoke vernaculars), and they had European-wide correspondence.
After witnessing the US’ government response during COVID and Afghanistan, the only thing I can think is: weakness.
How do you think allies respond to weakness?
You can debate all you want. At the end of the day, a few proper lockdowns, mask mandates, and test-trace-isolate are 100x easier than organizing a war economy. We didn’t do it because we were weak.
The presence in Afghanistan didn’t make sense. You either go all in, integrate its economy, flood it with Americans, exploit mines… invest foe the very long term and develop the country in the process, or you get out ASAP.
You don’t promise nation-building and then drop it
The 2nd part of the COVID FAQ premium article is out. 9 Q&A. Here's what we talk about: 10. What Are the Side Effects of the Vaccines? I talk about blood clots, Guillain-Barre Syndrome, myocarditis/pericarditis, and more unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/covid-faq-20…
11. Does It Make Sense for Some Groups to Not Get Vaccinated Then?
There's 2 groups that might want to pick the right vaccines for them
12. Should We Have Mandatory Vaccines?
There's a massive gap between mandating and not mandating. We can get freedom and good healthcare outcomes. The nuances here matter a lot.
13. How Should We Deal with Immunocompromised People?
We already have lots of experience on this
Time for a COVID FAQ 1. Delta Update 2. I'm vaxxed. Am I Safe? 3. I’m Vaxxed. Can I Go to an Indoor Event Masked? 4. When Will We Leave This Behind? 5. Can Vaccines Stop the Pandemic? 6. Vaccine Effectiveness? 7. Fractionalization? 8. Booster Shots? 9. Mix&Match?
1. What’s the Update on the Delta Variant and Cases Worldwide?
Raising in many countries, in some it's started to fall, but it doesn't look like cases will go all the way down there.
The fact that JP TH & similar countries, protected till now, can't control the virus shows how dangerous Delta is
I humbly have so many questions about #autism, esp clustering. Do you have answers?
Autism is known as a spectrum, but it sounds to me like it’s not a line, rather a space. Traits don’t linearly increase or decrease. ≠ ppl have ≠ traits.
Are there trait clusters?
2. Genetic Clustering
20%-25% of autism can be traced to >100 genes. The same gene variants should produce the same traits. We know that for a few like SynGAP-1. Why don’t we for all? Why so little correlation btw gene variants and traits?
3. Non-genetic causes
Why only ~25% of autism is traced back to genes?
Is the rest too difficult to trace back? Why?
Or is it because there are other drivers?
Why don’t we know about other drivers?
(Please no antivaxxing)
If you, like me, are tired of shallow and short-term reporting on China, and need to zoom out, I'd like to tell you a story. It's about an ancient, hidden force influencing its policies today, from Xinjiang to the Pacific, from Tibet to Beijing.
This is the map of China's ethnicities. The main ones are:
Han in the east (brown)
Mongolian in the north (dark pink)
Turkic in the west (light pink)
Tibetan in the south-west (orange)
Thai in the south (yellow)
But most of the people are in the east! In the Han area.
This is so stark that the line that divides the lightly and densely populated areas has a name: it's the Hu line