Thread by @PandemicTruther

The Hidden Logic Behind the Iran-Israel War: Not Just About Iran—It's About Saving the Dollar

This war isn’t just about Israel trying to bomb Iran. It’s about something far bigger: protecting the U.S. financial system from collapse.

Let’s be clear. Israel doesn’t act alone. It’s been conferring with Wall Street and taking quiet instructions from the Federal Reserve. But this time, Israel miscalculated.

Tel Aviv didn’t expect the scale, speed, or precision of Iran’s retaliation. Neither did Washington. The shock was real. What followed made one thing painfully obvious: Israel can’t handle a long, high-intensity war—not logistically, not militarily, not politically.

Because this was never just Israel’s war.

Israel acts as a militarized outpost for the U.S.-led financial empire. Its role is strategic, but the real beneficiary of this war isn’t just Israel. It’s Wall Street.

The U.S. national debt is over $37 trillion. Interest payments are now the biggest item in the federal budget. Investors are nervous. Who wants to keep buying U.S. Treasuries when the math no longer works?

To keep capital flowing into U.S. bonds, you need to create fear. The world must believe:
- The U.S. is the only safe haven,
- Every other region is one trigger away from chaos,
- And the U.S. military can plunge any competitor into ruin at will.

In the past, often at the moment when the Fed increased the interest rate, a major war breaks out. Purpose of both is to cause capital flight into USD assets.

- In March 2022, the Fed raised rates.
- Days earlier on February 24, Russia moved into Ukraine.
- Panic ensued. Over €400 billion fled into U.S. assets.
- German industry was crushed by energy inflation. Many factories left—some to the U.S., but others to China to the indignation of the US government. That's why Obama accused China of being a "free rider"

🧵

In early 1999, as the euro was freshly launched and gaining traction, the United States and NATO escalated their military intervention in Kosovo. This bombing campaign against Serbia had significant repercussions for European markets. The euro dropped sharply—by nearly 30% against the dollar in the early months of the conflict—while capital rushed into the relative safety of U.S. Treasuries. Although exact figures vary, analysts at the time noted that several hundred billion euros left European markets, seeking refuge in American bonds. This exodus helped reinforce the dollar’s position at a critical moment for the euro’s early credibility.

But even war has limits when Wall Street calls the shots. Israel could have hit Kharg Island, Iran’s oil lifeline—handling nearly 90% of its crude exports. Destroying it would have shattered Iran’s economy. But oil would’ve hit $300 or even $400 a barrel. Inflation would spike worldwide. The Fed would be forced to hike interest rates again, driving U.S. debt servicing into a death spiral. That’s a risk Washington can't afford.

So quietly, behind closed doors, lines were drawn. Targets were chosen with financial risk in mind. Because above all else, Wall Street, the Fed, and the U.S. government have a common priority: protect investor confidence in U.S. bonds.

But that confidence is crumbling.

The U.S. credit rating was already downgraded by Fitch in 2023. Fundamentals are weakening. And yet, the dollar still stands. Why? Because it's backed by firepower. The U.S. military—and its Israeli outpost—project chaos as a service. That chaos reminds global investors: the safest place for your money is still the United States. Not because the numbers add up—but because the U.S. can burn the rest of the world down at will.

Except for one place: CHINA

The U.S. wants to replicate its old playbook: destabilize, provoke panic, and attract capital and restore manufacturing. The goal is simple—push factories and money out of China, and back into the US.

They’ve tried it all:
- Protests in Hong Kong,
- Separatist pushes in Xinjiang and Tibet,
- Arms to Taiwan,
- Naval standoffs in the South China Sea,
- Provoking India to antagonize China along the Himalayas,
- Stirring conflict between the Philippines and China.

None of it worked.

China/Asia refused to burn. And China held the line. No civil war, no proxy war, no failed state. Just calm. That’s a strategic defeat for Washington.

Even the Indo-Pakistan conflict—backed by the U.S.—failed to escalate. China’s modern war doctrine helped end it in 72 hours.

India stepped back. Pakistan quietly claimed it had the ability to shoot down 20 Indian jets—but chose not to to avoid escalation.

In this region, wars don’t escalate.

Why? Because China is quietly holding the perimeter.

China sees the U.S. strategy for what it is: provoke instability, then harvest capital and manufacturing flight.

But China has tools to stave it off:
- The most advanced missile and electronic warfare systems in Asia,
- A vast domestic market,
- A unified political system,
- And credible military deterrence.

China isn't falling for the trap. And as long as China/Asia stays stable, capital won’t flee to U.S. Treasuries like before.

That’s the real gamble. If China breaks—if it collapses from within—the whole world will panic. Factories will flee. Investors will pour money into “safe” U.S. bonds. The dollar will get its second wind.

That’s the strategy: break China, save the dollar.

But it’s not working. China remains too stable, too advanced, too critical. The sanctions failed. The encirclement failed. The propaganda failed.

So once again, Washington turns to its most reliable lever: Israel.

This isn’t only about Iran and Israel. This is about global financial engineering. It's about creating war—to save the dollar. The real battlefield isn’t only Tehran and Tell Aviv. It’s the bond markets.

The war is not for territory. It’s for the future of U.S. hegemony.

Some speculate that Trump might escalate—deploy more troops, bomb Tehran, or expand the war into a regional inferno. But here’s the truth: America can’t afford it. A full-scale war means more spending, higher deficits, panicked bond markets, and a collapse in U.S. credit.

It would also give China an opening. Right now, Beijing is conducting live-fire drills near Taiwan. If Washington is distracted in the Middle East, China might act. And that’s a risk the Pentagon can’t ignore. The numbers don’t lie. War costs more than it earns now. This time, the U.S. will bark—but not bite.

The strategy of using chaos to drive capital into the U.S. has started to backfire. Yes, the Ukraine war triggered massive capital flight. Yes, some of Germany’s industry fled to the U.S. But much of it also went to China. Investment into East and Southeast Asia soared. Why? Because China now looks like the most stable region on Earth. Surrounded by calm, backed by real deterrence. China's military isn’t loud—but it’s effective. Its strength has quietly become the backbone of regional economic stability and continued prosperity.

Iran sees the China model and wants to emulate China. Iran has been on a permanent imminent surrender mode to the US. It wants to defy the West while staying plugged into global markets and prosper. Just like China. But it hasn't understood the logic behind. It lacks China’s key asset: advanced modern military capability far exceeding that of the US in reality (best kept secret), paired with quiet restraint.

That’s why Iran remains vulnerable. And China doesn’t.

Israel's aggression has backfired.

Israel may survive Iranian missiles. But it won’t survive the markets. Because capital is skittish. Even a 1% risk of Tel Aviv being turned into rubble is enough to scare it off. Investors don’t wait for certainty—they react to probability. Israel used to be a magnet for global capital, celebrated for its innovation and high-tech startups. But all of that was built on the belief that it was fundamentally safe. That illusion is gone now. No capital parks itself in a blast zone.

Once the illusion of safety disappears, so does the money. Israel won’t rebuild its economy with foreign investment—because capital doesn’t go where missiles fall.

The Iran–Israel war, launched with the implicit goal of triggering capital flight toward U.S. markets, has at least partially backfired.

Instead of flowing exclusively into U.S. assets, a significant portion of Middle Eastern capital has been siphoned off to Hong Kong, a financial platform serving China.

On June 12, the day the conflict erupted, over HKD 127.8 billion (roughly USD 16 billion) surged into the Hong Kong Stock Exchange via southbound trading, accounting for more than 55% of the total daily volume. Far from reinforcing the dollar, the war has redirected capital into China’s financial orbit—achieving the exact opposite of what Washington and Tel Aviv likely intended.

To all intents and purposes, this war has misfired: instead of triggering a flight of capital into U.S. markets, it has redirected billions toward China, strengthening its financial position; instead of securing Israel, it has left the country shattered and increasingly uninvestable; and far from reinforcing U.S. dominance, the conflict risks drawing Washington into a ruinous quagmire that could collapse the dollar, implode Treasury bonds, and shatter American hegemony—so when the German Chancellor says Israel is doing the dirty work for all of us, he may be right, just not in the way he intended.

Putin is smiling too. US Nato being drawn into the Israel-Iran war will take some pressure off his back.

Once upon a time, in the great forest of the world, a hungry tiger (US) roamed. His eyes burned with desire—for he had long dreamed of feasting on the great DRAGON (China) that lived far to the East. The Dragon, with its shimmering scales and fiery breath, would have been the grandest meal of all.

But the tiger paused. He knew the Dragon was powerful—too vast, too wise, and too fierce to be hunted easily. Many had tried. None had returned.

Just then, the tiger looked around and saw a cluster of smaller animals grazing nearby: the Bear (Russia) the Eagle’s European cousins (Europe), the Lions of the Middle East (Middle East).

They looked startled, confused.

"Wait," they said, trembling. "Weren’t you after the Dragon? Shouldn’t you be killing and eating him?"

The tiger licked his teeth and chuckled darkly.

"Yes," he growled. "The Dragon would make a fine feast. But he is far too strong, too prepared. I cannot bring him down—at least not yet. But I'm hungry now. If I don't eat, I will die!!"

He took a step toward the smaller beasts.

"But you... you're weaker. Softer. Easier to sink my teeth into."

And so, instead of charging the Dragon, the tiger prowled through the forest, striking at the vulnerable, devouring the distracted. The others watched in fear, wondering when their turn would come—wondering why the tiger, though fixated on the Dragon, chose instead to tear through them first.

The world is still a jungle.

People have been talking for years about the end of American hegemony. It's the consensus that it was never going to disappear quietly. Before stepping down from the world stage, the United States is destined to drag the world into one final, catastrophic war — a kind of self-immolation that seals its downfall. For years, analysts speculated about where and how this would unfold. The dominant theory used to be a titanic war with China in the South China Sea, triggered by a Taiwan contingency. But something changed. Washington has come to realize — quietly, reluctantly — that its military is no longer a match for China’s. The Pentagon is still struggling to fully transition out of the post-9/11 counterinsurgency mindset, while China has already leapfrogged into sixth-generation warfare: AI-driven, drone-saturated, fully integrated, and command-synchronized in real time. So, the war to mark the end of U.S. primacy won’t be fought over Taiwan. It’s being fought now — in the Middle East. The October 7, 2023 Hamas incursion into Israel was not just a regional flashpoint. It was the geopolitical equivalent of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 — a spark that will trigger the unraveling of the old order. The financial, psychological, and strategic consequences are already global. And in this proxy war landscape, the United States is overextended, exposed, and increasingly reactive — no longer the actor that shapes the world, but the empire forced to defend illusions of control as the world moves on.