Thread by @talhagin

A viral claim alleges that over 1,000 Israeli deaths—military and civilian - were exposed via a hack of the Israeli "Hess" website, due to Iranian strikes.

But is there any truth to it—and can we even know, given Israel’s military censorship?

A🧵

The official numbers, per Israeli/Palestinian media (TOI/Maariv/Palestine Chronicle/MOH), cite 29 deaths (28 civilians / 1 off-duty soldier) and 3,000+ injured, but the death toll could rise as there are still several in critical condition (As of June 24th).

Sources:
TOI (They are missing 1 name: Yelena Zadovsky)
timesofisrael.com/these-are-the-…
Maariv:
maariv.co.il/economy/israel…
Palestine Chronicle:
palestinechronicle.com/israeli-media-…
MOH:
gov.il/he/pages/24062…

But could they be concealing additional casualties? In theory, yes—but what evidence supports that claim? Very little.

Typically, three points are cited to support the idea:
1. Alleged leaks of Israeli deaths.
2. Aftermath videos showing destruction on a massive scale.
3. Israel’s military censorship.

Citation - Leaks:
The latest “leak” circulating claims that Israel suffered over 1,000 deaths from the Iranian strikes, including more than 500 IDF personnel.

This figure supposedly comes from a hack of an Israeli website called “Hess” and was first reported by Yemeni writer, political analyst, and human rights activist Dr. Abdullah Al-Mansouri.

A few things:
1. The original claim was published as early as June 24th on X, by a user named antizionism82 - Posting the thread in the evening of June 24th, the same day as the cease-fire.
It was later translated to English and spread further.

2. The only mention of any Yemeni who could even slightly fit that name of the Dr is a journalist that was arrest by Houthi authorities in 2020 named Tawfiq Al-Mansouri, per HRW - This doesn't fit the description.
No person with this name was found.

3. The only result for an Israeli website called "Hess" is .
A private patent attorney that handles trademarks. The site isn't a news aggregator, nor would it be reasonable to assume it would have casualty figures hidden on the site. hess.co.il

4. The original text in its entirety also provides several other serious claims, the most significant being that:
1. 1/3 of Israel was destroyed.
2. Israel's entire infrastructure and military have been destroyed

No evidence supports this.

5. Based on this observations - The cited numbers from a leak are baseless and should be disregarded until information one can independently verify comes to light.

This also isn't the first time alleged "leaks" have surfaced. I have reviewed several alleged leak that have been published, all of which were either baseless or outright wrong - examples:
1. Mass IDF casualties in Northern Israel, based on an X testimony:
x.com/talhagin/statu…
2. Journalist arrested for exposing IDF casualties:
x.com/talhagin/statu…
3. Hack shows that Oct 7th casualties' was 2x what was reported:
x.com/talhagin/statu…

Citation - Videos of aftermath:

One reason people are more inclined to believe these types of leaks is likely due to footage they have seen, allegedly showing the aftermath of Iranian ballistic missile/drone strikes.

But,

1. Many of the examples showcased used to back-up the assertion that "1/3 of Tel Aviv was destroyed" or that Israel was damaged to an extreme extent was AI videos or videos that weren't from Israel.
I covered several of these examples in a thread I managed between June 13th and the 24th:

2. A misunderstanding as to how widespread safe-rooms or bomb shelters are, and how much warning people had to get to safety.
A. Social gathering was forbidden, institutions were closed and most people weren't traveling far from home.
B. People were warned 10 minutes, via their phone, of an impending attack, and then a Red Alert siren would go off - giving additional time.
C. Most modern apartment buildings and private homes have safe rooms, while older neighborhoods have community bomb shelters - not including bomb shelters in every mall, supermarket, etc

3. Real images and videos of the aftermath show that the majority of the damage was concentrated at the site of the direct hit—often causing the building to partially collapse, particularly if it was old.
Surrounding buildings typically suffered external damage from the shockwave, such as cracked walls, shattered windows, and dented vehicles. This kind of damage wouldn’t be fatal if someone was inside a shelter.
Fatalities were far more likely in cases of a direct hit, which did occur in several instances—most notably in Petah Tikva and Be’er Sheva.

Citation - Israeli Censorship

The Israeli censor, in place since 1948, primarily focuses on information relating to "national security" (very vague, but usually means IDF movements, munitions, etc) and "Propoganda".

But during this war?

A number of publications were made that outlined specific guidelines relating to censorship during the war - All of them had to do with the publication of strike locations or launch locations, either by giving the exact location or filming it - with a focus on military installations.

Nothing about casualties.

How effective this censorship has been is debatable, as on numerous occasions - Videos of strikes on or near sensitive locations were filmed, published and geolocated in less than 3 hours after impacts.

Possible impacts on sensitive locations isolated from the public could have occurred - but for the most part they have been filmed and published (Nevatim Airbase - October 1st, 2024)

Summary:
The current "leak" originates, currently, from an X post that provides 0 sources for its claims, and nothing noted can be verified: Not the author, the website or the figures.