Thread by @joni_askola

1/8 THREAD:

Despite the successful propaganda, russia is quietly facing a strategic defeat in Ukraine — and too few realize it

2/8 russia’s propaganda blurs facts and makes a brutal war feel like a stalemate.

But the truth is: Ukraine is winning, and russia is quietly, catastrophically losing.

It all comes to strategic objectives

3/8 Imagine telling someone in March 2022 that 3.5 years later:

- russia controls way less territory
- Ukraine still holds all 23 regional capital cities
- russia has over 1M casualties
- north korean troops are on the frontlines

That would sound like a massive russian defeat

4/8 At its peak in 2022, russia occupied nearly 30% of Ukraine. Today? Just around 19%.

Despite throwing everything — mobilized men, recruited men, mercenaries, prisoners, north korean troops — russia is way further from its strategic goals today than it was in March 2022

5/8 russia’s goals:

- Overthrow Ukraine’s government
- Erase Ukrainian identity
- Demilitarize Ukraine

Reality:

- Ukraine is more sovereign than before the full-scale war
- More united
- More militarized

This is a historic strategic failure

6/8 Ukraine still controls every regional capital it held before the invasion.

russia hasn’t taken a single one.

Imagine the US invading a smaller country — and after 3.5 years and 1M casualties, controlling less territory than it did one month in. It would be a disaster

7/8 russia can’t stop — it’s all in.

But it’s also stuck: bleeding men, money, and legitimacy.

This war will be studied for decades as a case study in strategic overreach and failure

8/8 Don’t let propaganda rewrite reality.

Ukraine is holding the line for all of us.

russia is losing — but the war isn’t over.

Support for Ukraine must grow. Pressure on russia must rise.

The future of the free world is still being decided