Thread by @Playfra0

Pokrovsk at its last breaths: what's after?

An analysis of the current tactical situation in the city and on its flanks, especially focusing on the Rodynske flank (right), and what has been prepared in all these months behind the city.

🧵Thread🧵 1/⬇️

2/🧵

Early May 2025, the Russians prepare the all-or nothing push on Pokrovsk's right flank, concentrating enormous amounts of infantry and equipment.
A motorcycle assault breaks through to Novoolenivka on May 1st, and the flower blooms. The Russians immediately commit their reserves and attack absolutely everything. Every single field, every single settlement.
Malynivka and Yablunivka are entered a week later, Nova Poltavka falls 2 weeks after Novoolenivka, opening the way to Poltavka, and Novoekonomichne, which a month ago was in the rear, is now threatened from 2 directions.

3/🧵

But the actual breakthrough happens in mid June, when Koptieve, and most importantly, the trenches in front and around it, are lost.
The Russians sense a weak spot, and again commit everything they have in the sector.
At that time, they were able to significantly lengthen the front with their spearhead, sending the Ukrainians into a catastrophic infantry shortage, but most critically, complete disorganization in the drone operators' ranks. My "prayers", unfortunately, were not listened to (x.com/Playfra0/statu…).

4/🧵

The Russians understood this very well, and knowing that the only thing that could stop them, drones, was in critical shortage and disorganization, they crossed the Kazenyi Torets' river with basically no resistance, capturing the key settlement of Razine. From there, they once more branched outwards, reaching the peak of their offensive: DRGs were already entering the Krasnolymanskaya mine (very good fortification node) at 1,6km from Rodynske, and Krasnyi Lyman, threatening to simply bypass Rodynske altogether.
The Ukrainians, though, were able to somehow gather their strength and offer a rebuff to the Russians, which had to temporarily stop attacking Rodynske and Chervonyi Lyman frontally, and switched to opening up the flanks.

5/🧵

Currently, the situation is the following.

- In the northern flank of the breakthrough, Russian DRGs constantly seep into Mayak and Pankivka, but are reportedly often destroyed. Some of them, though, were able to infiltrate much deeper towards Nove Shakhove and cross what I call the "line 0.5", which is a smaller obstacle line before the main one. This breakthrough in particular is still very controversial and no further information was published.

- In the center, the Russians are attacking a bit everywhere, especially between the terykons and the ponds: they continue sending reconnaissance groups to the Krasnolymanskaya mine where fighting is ongoing, but the Ukrainians still hold positions in it;
they are attacking Suvorove/Zatyshok from Fedorivka, for now without noticeable successes;
the Ukrainians were able to counterattack and reach Razine itself with a group of infantry (x.com/Bielitzling/st…), but it was then hit by the Russians, and its fate is unknown, but it's known that this is not archival footage: I was able to reach out to the geolocator, who, having info from the field, confirmed this to me.

- In the south, the Russians are putting enormous pressure on Novoekonomichne from 3 sides, which the Ukrainians are trying to contain: fighting is ongoing even for the center, together with the northern part, while the southern part is under Russian control. Here, the Russians want to use the settlement as base after the Kazenyi Torets to launch further offensive operations with the aim of entering Myrnohrad.

6/🧵

Just as predicted already in early July (x.com/Playfra0/statu…), after seeing success on one flank, the Russians logically activated the other pincer, that has the name of Udachne-Kotlyne direction.
Here, the Russians have been stuck for 7 months, and have been only lately able to achieve some level of success in the form of threatening Udachne, but very capable Ukrainian units are present there, giving the Russians a very hard time advancing and exploiting any breakthrough.

7/🧵

But we have to remember one thing here: Ukraine's manpower shortage and the new front on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration's eastern flank, which multiplied its length.
The Ukrainians were forced to redeploy units from elsewhere, and this led to the weakening of Pokrovsk's frontal defense, which also held for about 7 months.
The brigade responsible for the defense of the settlement of Zvirove, right in front of Pokrovsk and basically merging with its urban area, reportedly straight-up ran out of infantry and was forced into a retreat, which the Russians immediately exploited with a specialized unit trained in urban combat and DRG attacks.
It was that way that the Russian DRGs infiltrated very deep into Pokrovsk by passing near the terykons, starting to fight for the city's Zelenivka district, but most importantly, basically reaching the city center. Even if the Ukrainians responded quickly with counter-sabotage operations, the Russians were able to reach the results they aimed for and ambushed multiple vehicles, rendering this part of the city unsafe.

Photo #1: x.com/Thorkill65/sta…
Photo #2: t.me/motopatriot78/…

8/🧵

Now, the Ukrainian command is forced to take a decision: either stabilize the situation completely, which will inevitably end up weakening other directions, or start the withdrawal. Sooner or later, the situation will become unsustainable, but sooner or later, the retreat routes might be already unviable, too, and the order to retreat will have to be given.
Now, the Russians control the logistical routes of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and they have controlled them for a long time now. The anti-drone nets are useless, if the Russians can fly tens FPVs from a couple of kilometers away. There is no safe route anymore to enter, exit or evacuate the city, and there hasn't been one for some time now.
The Ukrainian command should immediately start a controlled withdrawal from the fields south of the agglomeration and start the urban battle, which will at least slightly relieve the pressure and shorten the front, with the added benefit of having a shorter route of retreat if the situation gets critical, but I am almost certain this will not happen until the very last moment, confirming that the Ukrainian command does not learn from its mistakes, unlike the Russian.

9/🧵

The Ukrainians continue to fail to understand that this is a drone war, and old methods do not work anymore, but only kill the men that are under whoever uses them. It is not easy to do it in war time, but the Ukrainian command needs to be reformed as soon as possible. If there's one issue I would solve right now, it's that.
Have I already said this ten thousand times? Yes.
Will I continue to say this? Also yes.
Uncapable commanders are criminally killing their subordinates, sending them into senseless assaults without knowing the situation, or being misinformed by lower commanders, which fear repercussions. The whole system is plagued, and this will bring the Ukrainian Army down with it.

10/🧵

But let's return back to Pokrovsk, and let's assume that the Ukrainians retreated from the agglomeration. What can they count on after the retreat?
Here is the New Donbas Line in its full glory.
Ukraine's Surovikin line and engineering masterpiece.
I advise you to go check my thread about the New Donbas Line, too,(x.com/Playfra0/statu…), but in short, ideally there are lines of barbed wire, 2 anti-tank ditches filled with barbed wire, a line of dragon's teeth with barbed wire and iron rods between them, another anti-tank ditch and another barbed wire line. Everything before a natural obstacle like a river, which is behind a dominant hill, on top of which are the Ukrainian drone operators, controlling the line 24/7 from sturdy, reinforced and camouflaged trench systems.
By the way, they are building a second line just like the first right infront of it.
Basically, taking it frontally is extremely hard if not impossible unless the Ukrainians have a critical shortage of resources in a certain area, or the defensive line is not complete somewhere, for example between Bilozerske and Zolotyi Kolodyaz (unsure why they left that hole, the 2 sections around it were completed already months ago), which looks like to be exactly what the Russians are aiming to reach with their spearhead to Nove Shakhove, other than reaching Dobropillia (the defensive line is behind it, and the second line I was talking about is not yet complete in front of the town) and simply lenghtening the front even more.

11/🧵

The problem with this is in the long term.
I don't think it's likely that the Russians will continue to the fields west of Dobropillia. That region is extremely rural and gives no benefits to fight for, if not to further lengthen the front, but that will not necessarily play in Russian favour.
I think it's much more likely that the Russians will focus on finishing the capture of the Donetsk region's administrative territory. Blocking this are 4 very big cities: Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Regardless of what everyone tells you, these can not be taken frontally. The only way in the current conditions and situation is to flank them, and what better way to go through the open fields on the tactical heights west?
And would you look at that, the Russians are also making an effort to reach Shandryholove and Lyman in the northern "proto-pincer".
In short, attempting to reach again the 2022 situation, when Slovyansk was seriously threatened from both Izyum and Lyman.
Now, this operation is something gigantic. Many many fortifications, and even the Siversky Donetsk river will block this, and many capable Ukrainian units, but the Russians have no alternative, and if they don't have alternatives, they will do whatever they can do as they did in the past.
We must also remember that Ukraine is much more weakened than it used to be in 2022-2023.

12/🧵

In conclusion, the situation for the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad agglomeration is very very difficult without exaggeration and on the brink of critical.
The Ukrainian command should've already have everything ready for a fast and organized retreat for what's possible, or should stabilize immediately the Rodynske flank, which is definitely easier said than done. At the moment, what worries me the most is Krasnyi Lyman, which if captured threatens to very simply bypass the Ukrainian defensive nodes of Rodynske and Myrnohrad, and Nove Shakove, which, if a foothold were to be gained there, would start the Dobropillia chapter.
The Ukrainians should immediately close the Bilozerske - Zolotyi Kolodyaz gap in the obstacle line and send reserves in this direction instead of slaughtering them in senseless counterattacks.
Anyways, regardless of the Ukrainian command's efforts, and unless a sizeable counterattack happens, which is extremely unlikely in my view, the agglomeration is doomed to fall by the end of the year, and efforts should be made to strengthen preemptively the lines you see in the picture to avoid the flanking maneuver that would finally spell the end for Ukrainian-controlled Donbas.

13/🧵

Thank you for reading! If you appreciated the thread and learned something new, it would be great if you could repost it to help me grow my channel and, most importantly, show me support for the multi-hour work that I do every day.
If you want to donate something, instead, you can do it here: coff.ee/playfra
Also, don't forget to join my Telegram channel: t.me/PlayfraOSINT
And lastly, if you're currently fighting on any side and want to share further information with me, don't hesitate to write to me personally either here in my DMs or on Telegram at @Playfra.
Have a good day everyone!