1/🧵Uspenivka sector, Pokrovske front, according to information from the field. Short update thread.

In the last few days, the situation, finally, significantly improved for Ukrainian forces after the transfer of the reinforcements I talked about here ().

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https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1978043152389800240

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After a period of generally large successes in this sector, in the last days Russian forces have been suffering a lot in wounded and dead servicemen, and, while further north near Vyshneve fast advancements are still recorded, they factually didn't advance by a meter near Uspenivka in recent days (the orange polygon you see is a correction, and DeepState updates are being published with a delay and generally diminish Russian gains here).

🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Day 1300, comprehensive frontline and rear situation report: territorial changes, trends, strategies and objectives of both sides, fortifications.

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Zaporizhzhia Oblast', Stepnohirsk sector.

Russian forces continue offensive operations in the sector, despite generally low media coverage.
The Russians gather up in Plavni's center to move through the gray zone to northern Plavni, and accumulate there. After this, they try to move into southern Prymorske, but are eliminated in the accumulation phase or cleared out by frequent Ukrainian infantry raids.

The Russians also often try to move through the kill zone in the fields north of Kamyanske, but the area is open enough for Ukrainian drone operators to control well and eliminate any movement, causing high casualties to the Russians.

Further northeast, the Russians constantly attempt to move into the 3rd microdistrict. This is because the district is composed of still mostly intact high rise buildings, that can be used for a safer accumulation for further assault operations.
From the 3rd microdistrict, the Russians seem to prefer attacking Ahrarna St. in southern Stepnohirsk.
Because of this predictability, the Ukrainians are zeroed in and constantly counterattack with all fire methods available.

Because of little successes evidenced after trying to take Stepnohirsk head-on, the Russians are slowly shifting their attention eastwards. An accumulation is recorded northeast of Kamyanske in the indicated area.

In general, the Ukrainians seem to be effectively holding the borders, combining fire damage with active defense, and achieving a favorable ratio of casualties with the Russian side. Russian successes here, at the moment, are not significant in any way.

White = trenches
Yellow = ditches
Blue = dragon's teeth
Gray = barbed wire

Lyman and the 3rd battle for the city at 5km on the horizon.
Russian 🇷🇺 plans, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 defenses, logistics, and what's next.

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Lyman is a medium-sized town located in the northern corner of Donetsk Oblast' and counted about 20,000 inhabitants in 2022.
Immediately after the start of the invasion, while the Russians were able to advance with almost no resistance in Luhansk and eastern Kharkiv Oblasts, they encountered very strong resistance in Donetsk Oblast' along strong and prepared defensive lines, reinforced for 8 years since 2014.
Nonetheless, after being pushed out of northern Ukraine and having scaled down their plans to capture Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, the Russians immediately recognized the importance of precisely 2 cities to reach their goals: the cities of Lyman and Izyum.
Control over these two cities allowed the Russians to pose an extremely serious threat to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the two "capitals" of Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, from the northeast and northwest.
Old "panic fortifications" built facing westwards from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk can still be easily found to this day, proving this strong problem that the Ukrainians faced.

Legendary Kreminna forest and the 16,500 trenches inside: the most precise public mapping ever made of this battlefield.

Interactive map:

🧵Gallery thread🧵1/⬇️ google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie… 2/🧵

Summing everything, in total the project took about 2 weeks of mapping, or about 30 hours if I hadn't stopped (haven't counted exactly, that's an estimate).

In the project is included just about everything:
- Trenches visible from updated satellite imagery ESRI
- World War 2 trenches and emplacements
- Singular foxholes
- Invisible trench systems under foliage, only visible through Planet imagery
- Dragon's teeth obstacles

The covered area goes from the village of Torske to Kreminna, totaling 175 km².

The Zolotyi Kolodyaz catastrophe. For whoever is asking "what the hell", "why" and "how".

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This thread will be more raw than the others. No sugarcoating, 101% objectivity.

As discussed in my previous thread, there are multiple reasons for this breakthrough, the main of which are:
- completely inadequate command
- sheer amount of Russian resources that were committed
- Ukrainian disorganization
- New Russian mobile groups that simply bypass scattered Ukrainian resistance points.

This breakthrough was NOT opened because of 1 reason in particular, but all of them.

At Zolotyi Kolodyaz', Russia 🇷🇺 had first contact with Ukraine 🇺🇦's New Donbas Line, and its DRGs broke through it for the first time, with the Ukrainians suffering from catastrophic manpower shortages.
In the long term, this might endanger all of Ukrainian-controlled Donbas.

A damage assessment and technical strategical overview of the situation.

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The story starts on July 21th, when, according to DeepState, Russian DRGs were recorded east of Nove Shakhove.
Everything has been kept quiet since then, with neither side releasing any information whatsoever, and with my sources, too, fully respecting operational silence.
Despite this, in the "dark", the Russians kept creeping forward and continued to send more and more DRGs deeper, eventually rendering the situation similar to what we have in Pokrovsk, where Russian DRGs are constantly recorded and destroyed even in the center of the city. Progressively, the breakthrough was expanded on all sides.
As of the evening of August 6th, local channels finally reported shooting battles in Zolotyi Kolodyaz, 7km from the last known Russian position.

Pokrovsk at its last breaths: what's after?

An analysis of the current tactical situation in the city and on its flanks, especially focusing on the Rodynske flank (right), and what has been prepared in all these months behind the city.

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Early May 2025, the Russians prepare the all-or nothing push on Pokrovsk's right flank, concentrating enormous amounts of infantry and equipment.
A motorcycle assault breaks through to Novoolenivka on May 1st, and the flower blooms. The Russians immediately commit their reserves and attack absolutely everything. Every single field, every single settlement.
Malynivka and Yablunivka are entered a week later, Nova Poltavka falls 2 weeks after Novoolenivka, opening the way to Poltavka, and Novoekonomichne, which a month ago was in the rear, is now threatened from 2 directions.

At the end of June 2025, #Russia 🇷🇺 is attempting to unify the Komar and Novopavlivka directions, but #Ukraine 🇺🇦 built a formidable defensive line to prevent this. Very soon, it will finally see utility.

Analysing the tactical-strategical situation and Ukrainian fortifications in the area, as well as predictions for future developments.

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The problems in this directions arose in early June, when the Ukrainians left only a rearguard in Bahatyr and the Russians broke through to Komar and Fedorivka. Because of this breakthrough, the Ukrainians were forced to temporarily divert their attention there, leaving an open window for the Russians to dash further through the vast fields of the region.

And indeed, on June 9th, DeepState reported that Russians were able to fly in between Dachne and Zaporizhzhia, but were destroyed.
On June 11th, the Russians tried again, and succeeded, crossing the Vovcha river between Dachne and Novoukrainka and entering for the second time the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast'.

After this series of breakthroughs, the Russians consolidated their bridgehead to attack Zaporizhzhia, and on June 12th the battle began and lasted 11 days, ending on June 23rd, with the Russians demonstrating their flags in the center of the village.

These breakthroughs formed numerous pockets and inconvenient positions for the Ukrainians, and the Russians are also threatening to cross the Mokri Yali and Vovcha rivers to get behind Ukrainian positions in even more areas, as well as breaching the main Ukrainian defensive line in front of Ivanivka, which we will analyze soon.

🚩The Zaporizhzhia defensive device and the Surovikin line: #Russia 🇷🇺's 2023 engineering masterpiece.

An in-depth analysis on the Tokmak slice project, the defensive line's characteristics and what we can learn from it today.

🔎View it here:

🧵Thread🧵 1/⬇️google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie… 2/🧵

In 2022, after failing to quickly capitulate Ukraine, the Russians completely withdrew their forces from the north of the country, concentrating everything on the east.
In September of the same year, though, the Ukrainians found a weak spot in Russia's groupment of forces in the Kharkiv Oblast', and decided to strike with great force, collapsing the front for 100km in the famous Kharkiv counteroffensive.
After this incredible victory, the Ukrainians started planning and accumulating resources to attempt a further counteroffensive, this time in multiple sectors of the frontline.
As such, Russia almost completely switched to a defensive posture, only limiting their offensives to a couple of their most promising directions, as for example Bakhmut.

Way up North, #Russia 🇷🇺 opened a new front at #Sumy, hoping to get close enough to the city to control its supply routes and shell it, but #Ukraine 🇺🇦 is opposing fierce resistance, aided by the strong brigades and natural obstacles.

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After the capture of Sverdlikovo and Nikolayevo-Daryino, Kursk Oblast', already in early February 2025, Russian forces started attacking southwards across the state border towards Novenke and in the fields between Zhuravka and Basivka.
After some small initial successes, they got rapidly bogged down because of Ukrainian drone crews that were freely hunting them in the open fields and the number of capable brigades that had just retreated from the Kursk salient and regrouped around that area.

Against renewed #Russian 🇷🇺 attack efforts, #Ukraine 🇺🇦 has not been idle, and is currently building the New Donbas Line, which stretches from #Kharkiv city to #VilnePole (#Zaporizhzhia), and which is the fruit of years of drone war experience and, finally, error correction.
In some sections, it's already capable of withstanding full-force #Russian attacks.

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After 1.5 years of total offensive on much of Ukraine's territory, Russia is seemingly not intending to decrease the pace of their assaults, and on the contrary are renewing offensive actions on the South Donetsk, Novopavlivka, Kostyantynivka, Siversk, Lyman and Sumy.
In contrast, though, the Ukrainians have not been watching and sleeping all this time, and have brought big reinforcements in the critical Kostyantynivka direction, and, focus of this thread, have been digging a brand new Donbas Line.

In the #Kostyantynivka direction, #Russia 🇷🇺 started serious offensive operations to flank the city from the west and breach #Ukraine🇺🇦's little number of prepared defenses there, with the help of new drone innovations.

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After the Ocheretyne breakthrough in April 2024, the Russians captured many important positions and settlements around the town itself. One of these was Novooleksandrivka. After its capture, the Ukrainians succesfully halted further Russian advancements towards Vozdvyzhenka, aided by the Kazenyi Torets' and Bychok rivers, which funneled the Russians into the village, and the vast fields north of Novooleksandrivka.

In the #Lyman direction, #Russia 🇷🇺 dangerously expands its bridgehead and attacks #Torske.
#Ukraine 🇺🇦's defenses are not in the best shape here, and #Russian FPVs harass #Ukrainian logistics extremely effectively, forcing retreats.

Telegram:

🧵Thread🧵 1/10⬇️t.me/PlayfraOSINT
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In the very last days of 2024, Russian forces were able to cross the Zherebets' River, and in early January 2025, the settlement of Ivanivka, situated on the other side of the river, was captured after a failed attempt.
A lesser-known specific about this series of attacks is the fact that the Russians exploited the dried-up reservoir, which significantly helped, and through which the main infantry attack was concentrated. The armor, instead, flew into the village through the road.

How #Ukraine 🇺🇦 is planning to stop #Russia 🇷🇺 in #Donetsk Oblast', once and for all.

A strategical frontline and fortification works assessment for the month of March 2025.

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After extremely tough fighting, and tactical counterattacks and disruptions, the Ukrainians were able to finally mostly stabilize the contact line along most of the Donets'k's front and extinguish the most dangerous Russian offensives for the Pokrovs'k - Myrnohrad agglomeration.
Seeing this, Russia decided to shift its focus elsewhere, especially concentrating on the Uspenivka - Rozlyv axis.

All along the front, the #Ukrainians 🇺🇦 are fighting the #Russians 🇷🇺 for the initiative and are conducting small tactical counterattacks, buying crucial time to reinforce defensive positions in the rear that #Russia 🇷🇺 can't afford to give #Ukraine 🇺🇦.
Stay with me in this thread while I analyze which new defensive lines were built and which reinforced, from #ChasivYar to #Zaporizhzhia.

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Lately, #Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been launching many small counteroffensives all along the front and has been successfully repelling #Russia 🇷🇺's attacks, with February being the month of least #Russian territorial gains since summer 2024.
It is though important to correctly interpret the objectives of these small counterattacks and debunk common beliefs of an incoming big counteroffensive. The objectives are:
1. Buying time
2. Tactical position improvement
3. Questioning Russian initiative

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On the #Pokrovsk front, #Russia 🇷🇺 can't keep up the pressure anymore and was forced to downscale its offensive efforts.
#Ukraine 🇺🇦 is exploiting this by counter-attacking in many places along this sector, while fortifications are being strongly reinforced with a novelty: the great use of barbed wire.

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Dachne - Andriivka
This is the most difficult part of the whole Pokrovsk front for the Ukrainians.

Russian forces pressure Kostyantynopil constantly, but are always repelled. Without changes.

Zelenivka, south of Ulakly, reportedly changed hands twice today. In the morning, the Russians captured the village, but a Ukrainian counterattack was able to clear part of the village in the afternoon. The destruction of 2 Russian tanks and 3 MTLBs is reported. Russian forces are also attacking east of Zelenivka on the opposite bank of the Sukhyi Yali river; extremely harsh fighting is still ongoing.

In Dachne, the Ukrainians still control the south-westernmost corner of the town. Nonetheless, the Russians started accumulating infantry in the center for further assaults on the remaining Ukrainian positions in the village and around it. Fighting continues.

The most difficult situation is Andriivka, which some sources give as practically captured. Here the Russians consolidated and secured last week's gains and continue wedging themselves in the town. At the moment, they're trying to fully secure positions on the western buildings of the town. The northern part is still controlled by Ukraine, but north of that, the Russians entered a trench system located on the dominant hill overlooking Andriivka itself, which endangers every Ukrainian position south of it.

The Ukrainians will have to retreat in the very near future from Dachne and nearby positions to Ulakly to avoid encirclement, as Kostyantynopil is already being attacked from both sides. After, the Ukrainians will fall back to the line Kostyantynopil - Rozlyv, before falling back again to the more solid Oleksiivka - Bahatyr - Komar line, where they're expected to hold out for some time.

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The #Russians continue attacking #Andriyivka and have successes on occasionally gaining a small foothold on the easternmost houses of the town. Fighting is going on for a vital chain of strongholds on a dominant.

Map: google.com/maps/d/u/1/vie… 2/🧵

The #Russians entered #Nadiyivka/#Nadezhdynka and the orchards and forests south of the settlement, likely with the aim of creating a pincer on #Sribne and #Zaporizhzhia.

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The #Russians break through near #Udachne and #Kotlyne at the railway and start fighting for the mines, but the #Ukrainians still have a strong line after. This thread will be on the still urgent and critical #Russian breakthrough in the area.

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Recently, the #Russians captured both of the treelines on the railway line's sides between #Udachne and #Kotlyne, crucial defense hubs, and are fighting for the key mines just behind the railway, which normally constitute formidable obstacles

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The #Russians are advancing, but the #Ukrainians have not been idle in the rear.

This thread will be a mix of analyses about what #Ukraine has dug this winter and about how this correlates with the current tactical-strategical situation at the front. Happy reading!
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This thread will be organized as follows:
we will move from the #Zaporhzhzhia front to the #Kurakhove one, then #Pokrovsk, #Toretsk and finally #ChasivYar. I will also say a few words about other less active fronts in terms of digging.

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Chasiv Yar, the legendary canal city.

Under attack for more than 8 months and still standing, this thread will explore its strengths and weaknesses, what makes up the city's defense, what the current situation is, and what will happen next and after the fall of the city.
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Chasiv Yar is a medium-sized town with ~12,000 pre-war population (about half of Selydove's). Where the city makes up, though, is in surface area: ~20.000 km² (double Selydove's). The city is also divided in 11 districts.

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Critical situation south of Pokrovs'k: Shevchenko under serious threat.

As the Russians continue exploiting the Zhovte gap in the Ukrainian lines, the vital town of Shevchenko and the Solonyi river seem increasingly in reach of the Russians. Let's analyze the situation. 2/🧵

After Selydove's fall, the Russians have seemingly found a weak spot in the Ukrainian lines behind the city, advancing much more easily and consistently. After capturing Vyshneve, Petrivka and Hryhorivka, they're now fighting for Zhovte and are now at Shevchenko's doorstep.