Thread by @joni_askola

1/5 THREAD: russia’s breach near Dobropillia — real, risky, and timed for pressure

It’s not a collapse, but it’s not nothing. It’s important to neither under- nor overestimate it.

Here’s why it matters, what it reveals, and what Ukraine must do next 👇

2/5 russia is attacking in multiple directions, willing to take risks and losses to gain leverage before talks.

Ukraine faces command issues, low infantry, poor coordination, limited resources — and a habit of delaying bad news.

That’s how breaches happen

3/5 This breach is still small compared to past actual breakthroughs. But in today’s war, it’s big enough to matter.

Ukraine has sent units, including from the 1st Azov Corps, to contain it.

It’s not too late — but it must be stopped before it grows

Map: Deep State

4/5 Zoom out, and this breach is tiny on the map. It won’t decide the war or the negotiations.

It could have been avoided. Now the key is preventing it from becoming something bigger

5/5 Ukraine needs more than quick fixes.

The corps reform will help — but more mobilization and better coordination are essential.

Europe must also go beyond statements and commit long-term aid. Because without it, Ukraine risks being pressured into a deal dictated by Trump