1/10 THREAD: Before the Alaska Talks begin, here are a few facts about the war in Ukraine worth remembering.
russia is failing strategically — despite the immense suffering it continues to cause.
Let’s break down why, after 3.5 years of full-scale war, russia is still losing👇
2/10 russia launched the full-scale invasion convinced Ukraine would collapse.
Its goal: turn Ukraine into a satellite state.
That was the strategic objective in February 2022 — and it still is today.
russia failed the moment Zelensky stayed and Kyiv held
3/10 The war has been horrific. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have died because of russian imperialism.
But strategically, russia is further from its goals now than it was in March 2022.
A pathetic and costly failure
4/10 russia now occupies less than 20% of Ukraine.
At its peak in March 2022, it held almost 30%.
And it still doesn’t control a single one of the 23 regional capital and special status cities Ukraine held in January 2022.
0/23 is a huge failure.
Map: ISW
5/10 This failure comes despite russia going all in:
- War economy
- Mobilization and mass recruitment
- Use of prisoners, mercenaries, and North Korean troops
- Massive help from allies
- Over 1 million total russian casualties
And still — no strategic success
6/10 russia’s global position has weakened.
Finland and Sweden joined NATO — because of russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Its influence has shrunk, and allies like Assad have lost power.
russia is weaker than before the war
7/10 russia’s performance is a textbook case of strategic failure.
It has caused enormous suffering in Ukraine, but it hasn’t moved closer to its goals.
And there’s no sign that this will change — even with the Alaska Talks approaching
8/10 When Trump and Putin speak on Friday, expect gaslighting.
But don’t forget: if someone had shown us a map of Ukraine today back in March 2022, we would have called it a massive Ukrainian victory and a russian strategic defeat
9/10 russia is simply not capable of achieving its strategic objectives.
That makes Ukraine the victor — despite the horrific cost and suffering.
And that’s the truth we must hold onto, no matter what’s said in Alaska
10/10 As the Alaska talks begin, remember:
russia is failing. Ukraine is resisting, despite the suffering.
And any deal that ignores these facts is built on fiction.
Don’t fall for the gaslighting. Remember the map. Remember the strategic goals. Remember who’s still standing
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