Brief update on Dobropillia situation.🧵Thread:
1/ As I noted from the outset, based on the limited information then available, there was no “operational breakthrough”. The penetration was tactical, involving roughly a battalion-sized force. Still, it is too soon for celebration
2/ Initially, the situation was especially risky, as Russian units managed to break east of Dobropillia. I would not describe this as a DRG (sabotage group) operation or a simple raid, since neither term accurately reflects the size of the force or its mission in the context
3/ It is positive that Ukrainian forces contained the threat and prevented it from developing into an operational breakthrough. However, the scale of reinforcements required was significant. According to Deep State, the following units were involved in the reinforcement effort:
4/ - 79th and 82nd Brigades, 1st and 425th Separate Assault Regiments, 25th Separate Btn, 2nd Btn of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade, 32nd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades, 38th Marine Brigade, 14th Special Purpose Brigade, Madyar’s Birds, Police, SSU and elements of the 1st corps.
5/ This means Ukraine had to commit units from other directions. While not certain, this could increase risks elsewhere along the frontline. More importantly, such measures address the symptoms rather than the cause - they stabilize, but do not resolve the underlying problem.
6/ It is perhaps premature to talk about cutting off the salient completely. While Ukrainian counterattacks have proven successful, such operations are complicated and potentially costly, as it does not appear that Russian forces have abandoned their plan to expand the salient.
7/ On a more positive note, the intensity of these assaults is not sustainable. Force quality, attrition, fatigue, and the increased operational tempo all limit how long they can maintain this pace - provided Ukraine has sufficient troops to resist and wear them down.
/8 For analytical accuracy, I would like to emphasize on the last sentence - that this holds true only if Ukraine can at least address manpower issues in this sector and improve the attrition ratio. Until then, similar situations may recur without any reduction in pace
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