Sanctions enforcement against Russia remains weak, as companies, including those from the West, continue to supply critical manufacturing equipment to sanctioned Russian firms. Frontelligence Insight reveals details of its investigation and provides evidence.

🧵Thread: 2/ The Russian UAV manufacturer "Albatros," based in Alabuga, is led by Aleksei Florov, also a chief designer involved in the localization of Iranian Shahed drones in Alabuga. Both "Albatros" and Aleksei Florov are sanctioned by several countries, including the US.

Summarized update from Frontelligence Insight on frontlines:

1/ The main Russian efforts remain in Donbas, particularly along the Pokrovsk-Chasiv Yar axis, which is currently the most difficult area. Vuhledar and Kupyansk areas are also key areas of focus. 🧵Thread: 2/ So far, Russian forces have failed to capitalize on the Kharkiv oblast incursion and did not achieve any operational successes in Donbas. They made tactical advances in Chasiv Yar, but given the number and higher-than-average quality of units there, progress is slow and costly

Within a decade, hybrid warfare against the West and Ukraine escalated into the largest war in Europe since WWII. To grasp how a demographically and economically smaller Russia achieved this, we need to look at the underlying processes, including escalation management. 🧵Thread 2/ We need to start with the concept known as "reflexive control" - a method to shape an opponent's mindset, steering their behavior towards the initiator's desired outcome. Russia used it to influence the West's mindset, suggesting that any aid could lead to nuclear escalation

In this war, timely aid and permission to strike are playing a key role. Ukraine must not be limited by weapon types or target locations. Delays or restrictions risk missing a critical window of opportunity, prolonging the war.🧵Thread about consequences and missed opportunities: 2/ These images show Russian concentrations of forces, camps, and field repair bases on the border with Ukraine. All these images have two things in common: by 2024, these sites have moved and dispersed, and none were targeted before their deployment to the frontlines

The Frontelligence Insight assesses that Russia is very close to launching the new railroad line between Burne and Malovodne (Donetsk Oblast), likely within weeks or days. The satellite imagery confirms limited train movement

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Thread🧵: 2/ The construction of an 80km railroad in Donetsk Oblast, approximately initiated around June 2023, aimed to establish a direct link between occupied southern Ukraine and the rest of Russia as a partial alternative to the Crimean Bridge.

Investigation by Frontelligence Insight reveals that since 2022, despite sanctions, Russian cruise missile manufacturer Raduga has not only continued to operate but also expanded production, thanks to imported Western and Chinese machinery

🧵Thread (Please Like and Share first): 2/ "Raduga" is a design bureau located in Dubna, Moscow Oblast, specializing in the production of missile systems, which are now used against Ukraine. This includes various modifications of the Kh-55, Kh-59, and Kh-101 missiles, as well as other missile types and models.

Donbas Area Situation Report: May 21-22

The frontline remains dynamic despite appearing static. Ukrainian forces reinforced Kharkiv to halt the Russian advance. The situation is still risky considering the thinned defenses. 🧵Thread

Before proceeding, please like and share 2/ Chasiv Yar

Russia identified weak points in the Kanal quarter, deploying infantry deep but failed to establish a foothold, and assaulting forces were eliminated by Ukrainian forces. Another attempt can be more successful, as Russians have additional forces available.

I am not an authorized person or official representative to make statements on behalf of the military or the entire country, but I want to share the concerns expressed by many on the frontlines, from privates to colonels. They often ask me: where is the promised aid?

🧵Thread: 2/ Considering that I talk to many analysts and experts worldwide, many of my friends and acquaintances hope I can provide them with comprehensive knowledge and answers in private. However, the truth is, I don't have an answer.

Yesterday, The Economist published an article stating that, according to military plans shared with them, Russian forces aimed to get within artillery range of Kharkiv within 72 hours and were probing to see if they could partially encircle the city. Here is why I am skeptical: 2/ First and foremost, if you examine the composition of forces Russia has used in this direction, the core of the advance consisted of motor rifle regiments with limited vehicle presence. These units were advancing in the form of dispersed small tactical groups on foot mostly

Frontlines Situation Report - May 17th, 2024

The frontline situation remains challenging. Russian forces intensified attacks in the Bakhmut area and advanced tactically in the Kharnohorivka and Kharkiv areas. Despite this, the frontline remains relatively stable

🧵Thread 2/ Chasiv Yar

Despite initial successes in the assault on Chasiv Yar, including reaching and occasionally crossing the canal with small groups, the Russians failed to establish a foothold. Lately, they've increased the use of armored fighting vehicles to advance.

Frontelligence Insight conducted an initial Battle Damage Assessment of strikes on Belbek Airfield in Crimea on May 15th and 16th. This analysis is based on mid-resolution images taken on May 16th

Before continuing, please like, share, and follow to aid with visibility. 🧵Thread 2/Three large scorch marks are visible in the central part of the airfield: two on the military jet apron and one in the fuel depot area. The exact diameter of these marks cannot be determined due to low resolution, but they appear to be approximately over 30m in size.

There has been a controversy surrounding the situation in the northern area of Kharkiv Oblast, invaded on May 10th. One of the primary points of contention has been the alleged absence of fortifications. But is it so? 🧵Thread:

Before proceeding, please like and share 2/ Given that many of these areas are now under Russian control, sharing some satellite images is appropriate. From these images, you can see fortified and communication trenches in areas near Krasne. Some of these are older Russian positions, while others were built in 2023

Overnight, Russian infantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it🧵:

(Before proceeding, please like and share) 2/ The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maneuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel

May 2nd updates on frontline developments from the Frontelligence Insight, including the information about a potential Russian offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts

Before proceeding, please like and share to aid with visibility, as sometimes we get less visibility

🧵Thread 2/ After successes in the Ocheretyne area, Russian forces now have slightly more than 10 kilometers of ground between them and the T0504 highway, which connects Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. However, another potential threat is emerging from the northward-leading road.

Russian forces have gained tactically near Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar, and have attempted a large assault towards Sivers'k. Frontelligence Insight provides a concise analysis of the current situation in this 🧵thread

Before proceeding, please like and share to aid with visibility 2/ According to on-the-ground reports, occasional Russian groups have temporarily crossed the canal at Chasiv Yar but didn't establish a bridgehead. A geolocated video by @giK1893 shows that Russians tried to set a position in the south of Chasiv Yar at the landbridge crossing

Why have Russian forces advanced in multiple directions and what are the implications? What are the future prospects? Today's analysis by Frontelligence Insight centers on Chasiv Yar, Kurakhkove, and Ocheretyne

Before proceeding, please like and share to aid visibility. 🧵Thread 2/ Ukrainian forces retreated from Ocheretyne and Solovyove. While the 115th brigade was blamed, the core issue is that many brigades are not in a condition to hold the enemy with disproportional advantage in personnel, artillery, vehicles, and air support along the frontline

Russian Oligarchs' Role in Drone Manufacturing and Sanction Evasion: Investigating sanctions evasion with exclusive documents and email correspondence.

🧵Thread exposing manipulation, cover-ups, and state aid to evade sanctions revealed through leaked documents and emails: 2/ Russian companies aiding military production may not be easily discernible. Consider RusAgro, which presents itself solely as a major agricultural player, owned by sanctioned oligarch Vadim Moshkovich. Another key figure is Maxim Basov - its CEO. Keep these names in mind

Battle for Chasiv Yar. Analysis, Implications, Projection
🧵Thread:

The battle for Chasiv Yar is a litmus test for both sides. Losing control of it will have dire results for Ukraine. Failure to capture Chasiv Yar on time would raise doubts about Russia's ability to seize Donbas 2/ Chasiv Yar's geography makes it a good defensive position, particularly compared to Bakhmut, blocking Russian progression toward key cities in the Donbas. This is evident on the elevation map, with warmer colors marking higher altitudes and colder colors indicating lower ones

Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently stated that "Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily." Frontelligence Insight has diligently observed Russian forces, their composition, and available resources. We would like to share several important points: 2/ While it's true that Russia is constantly rebuilding its forces and trying to replace losses, including recruiting new personnel and creating new units and military districts, the reality differs significantly from what appears on paper.

Amidst the growing number of confirmed civilian casualties from the recent terrorist attack in Moscow, Putin and state-affiliated media and bloggers continue to link it to Ukraine. Given the gravity of these implications, we need to examine key details and assertions. 🧵Thread: 2/ Firstly, on March 7th, the US Embassy in Russia issued a public warning regarding extremist plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, including concerts. Subsequently, after the attacks, the US confirmed sharing this info with RU security forces. US officials suspect ISIS-K

The Frontelligence Insight conducted a visual analysis of satellite imagery to assess the impact of a Ukrainian UAV attack on an aircraft repair facility in Taganrog, The imagery indeed validates the damage sustained by the facility.

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🧵Thread: 2/ A comparative analysis shows scorch marks on the roof of a building identified by our team as a Final Assembly Facility, where it was suspected Russians were conducting A-50 repairs. The day before the attack: