Overnight, Ukraine carried out a series of missile strikes on Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast, reportedly using ATACMS missiles. Here’s what we can anticipate based on previous data gathered by Frontelligence Insight:

🧵Thread 2/ In recent months, the airfield had been spotted to home SU-25 close air support jets, helicopters, and UAVs.

Gallup, the famous analytics firm known for its public opinion polls, recently released a study titled "Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War." The data might sound controversial, with many citing the headline without delving deeper into the survey. 🧵Thread: 2/ According to the latest survey, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians now favor a swift, negotiated resolution to the war. This a notable increase from 2023, when only 27% expressed this sentiment, reflecting a 25% increase in just one year

Kursk: Russia Prepares Airfields for the Impact

The announcement permitting Ukraine to strike inside Russia with ATACMS came just yesterday, but evidence suggests Russia has been fortifying the Kursk military airbase since early October. Analysis from Frontelligence Insight🧵: 2/ Satellite imagery shows new aircraft revetments being built, expanding the airfield's capacity for jets. Both the new and existing revetments are being reinforced with what appears to be concrete blocks for added protection.

Early reports suggest that Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles may come with specific geographic limitations.
This nuance might significantly influence the outcomes of their use. Here’s a breakdown of what we can expect, given that the information about limitations is correct🧵: 2/ As reported before by our team Frontelligence Insight, Russian forces have moved many key air assets beyond ATACMS range, leaving mainly helicopters and close-support jets at the Kursk airfield within striking distance, reducing high-value targets

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1855333854858375661

The second part of Frontelligence Insight's investigation, based on leaked emails and documents provided by @CyberResUa, reveals new details about Russia's 2022 struggles to produce critical Su-57 components due to reliance on Western parts. 🧵Thread with investigation details: 2/ In the first part of our investigation, we examined the correspondence between Almaz-Antei's affiliate "Red Banner" and Joint Stock Company "Mikropribor" discussing how a critical component, the MPPU-50, put state contracts for Su-57 production at risk

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1839064115093942688

One point of tension between Zelensky and the Biden admins was the issue of allowing ATACMS strikes inside Russia. Frontelligence Insight conducted geospatial analysis and spoke with former U.S. officials and experts from leading US think tanks. Summary of our report🧵: 2/ When a Pentagon spokesperson suggested that Russia had moved assets capable of KAB strikes from airfields within ATACMS range, the statement was correct. Our research confirms that Russia relocated Su-34/35 jets from bases like Voronezh Air Base.

Ukraine is likely approaching the final stages of the active phase of the war. I suggest taking a look at my assessment, which draws on General Budanov’s overlooked speech at the Yalta Conference, along with insights from other reports and assessments

🧵Thread: 2/ Any war of attrition tests endurance, economics, diplomacy, and the ability to replace losses. As the war continues, these issues intensify, pushing one side closer to a tipping point. Production and the capacity to replace losses are tangible factors that can be projected

After reviewing an internal correspondence leak from a Russian military electronics plant "Mikropribor", Frontelligence Insight, with data provided by @CyberResUa discovered that the production of the Su-57 is in jeopardy without access to crucial Western components. 🧵Thread: 2/ According to correspondence between the head of the procurement bureau at the "Red Banner" plant (a part of Almaz-Antei) and "Mikropribor" in August 2022, Mikropribor was given a list of required equipment for the MPPU-50. Keep this device name in mind- it's important

An alleged drone strike has targeted the Tikhoretsk ammo depot, according to early reports. The depot, closely monitored by Frontelligence Insight for its role in artillery ammo logistics, gained international attention in 2023 following the arrival of North Korean ammo.
🧵Thread 2/ Krasnodar Governor Veniamin Kondratyev reported that two UAVs targeting Tikhoretsk were "suppressed", with debris causing a fire and detonation of flammable materials. Videos on social media suggest a large denotation

Screenshot from the video posted by @war_monitor_ua

As Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Ukraine's Donbas region, concerns about its potential loss are mounting. There is uncertainty about why Pokrovsk is more significant than other recently lost towns. This thread aims to clarify this and other aspects: 2/ Before falling to Russian forces in February 2024, Avdiivka was vital for Ukrainian troops, serving as a fortress, protecting key logistical routes in Donetsk Oblast, and a potential foothold for deoccupying Donetsk. Since 2022, Russia has invested heavily in capturing it

Ukrainian MFA stated that Belarusian armed forces are concentrating a significant number of personnel, weapons, and equipment near Ukraine's northern border under the guise of exercises

🧵It's still early to draw any definitive conclusions, but a few points should be considered: 2/ In February 2024, Frontelligence Insight and Rochan Consulting released an analysis of the Belarusian military's readiness, concluding that its combat units are typically manned at only 30-40% capacity, relying heavily on mobilization, with the rest filled during mobilization

Joe Lonsdale, founder of 8VC and employer of the son of sanctioned Russian oligarch Vadim Moshkovich, has brushed off allegations of Moshkovich's involvement in drone production. For clarity, let's focus on the facts, documents, and records.

🧵Thread: 2/ First, let’s examine the rule issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Industry and Security. It clearly states that Assistagro and Geomiragro are contributing to the development of military-grade drones in Russia.

Source: federalregister.gov/documents/2023…

Geospatial analysis from Frontelligence Insight reveals that Russian forces continue to build a defensive line in the Kursk region, located south and southwest of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov

Before continuing, please like and share to aid with visibility

🧵Thread 2/ The initial stages of constructing a defensive line near the settlement of Dolgii, roughly 10 kilometers south of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, were visible in satellite imagery on August 14. By August 18, the trenches were in the process of being reinforced.

Russia often touts itself as a multicultural country where ethnic minorities are equal. This narrative is particularly promoted in Africa and Asia for political gain. Yet, the 17-year-old Ksenia Cheponova, an Altai woman took her own life after bullying over her Asian appearance: 2/ In her death note, posted on Telegram, she wrote:

“I don’t understand what my fault was. Was it because I was born with narrow eyes or because my skin is dark? I never felt ashamed of my ethnicity until some people started turning it into a joke"

Around August 16th, a video circulated on Telegram, showing a Ukrainian soldier's severed head on a pole, reportedly filmed by a member of the 155th Brigade. This should be seen not just as an isolated act of cruelty but as part of a larger, systematic approach.

🧵Thread: 2/ Before discussing the issue, let's clarify several points. The video went viral after the notorious Russian unit "Rusich" posted it on their Telegram channel on August 16th. They praised the 155th Brigade, stating that this was an appropriate response to "pigs."

War is a continuation of politics by other means. As the Kursk incursion continues, the military part of this operation is still being written. However, it is fair to say that, regardless of the outcome, this operation has shed light on certain political aspects. 🧵Thread: 2/ The first aspect, which has largely gone unnoticed, is the evident ineffectiveness of the so-called military alliances and treaties between Russia and other countries, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes obligations like NATO's Article 5

The Myth of Endless Manpower: Russian Soldiers’ Average Age Approaches 38 as Trends Persist

🧵Thread by Frontelligence Insight:

1/ Russian gains in Ukraine are often attributed to their superior numbers in resources and manpower, fostering the perception of an endless manpower 2/ Our recent research shows that increasing recruitment challenges in Russia affect not only the quantity but also the quality of recruits. The average age of Russians killed in Ukraine is nearing 38 and rising. This trend could significantly impact the war's course.

A few thoughts on the situation in Kursk 🧵:

1/ I still think this could be a serious mistake given the situation in the Donbas. However, the situation can quickly change, proving me wrong. The stakes are very high, and there is significant potential here. The outcome is unclear 2/ Russian troops on the border, including FSB border troops and conscripts, were enough to stop small incursions but clearly not enough to stop the advance of the combined force that Ukraine assembled for this assault.

Sanctions and Reality: Western Tech's Enduring Role in Russian Arms.

Frontelligence Insight presents a special investigation into how Western components continue to power Russian missile navigation systems that guide Russian missiles to Ukrainian cities.

🧵Thread: 2/ A batch of confidential documents, spanning hundreds of pages and supplied to our team by the @CyberResUa, directed our investigation to a military base in Shaykovka, Kaluga Oblast. This base is home to military unit #33310 or 52nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment

Russia is Relocating Its Valuable Military Assets Deeper into Its Territory. Frontelligence Insight has conducted research and released a special report for subscribers, detailing how the Russian army has moved further critical assets, including bomber jets and helicopters. 🧵: 2/ Based on a comprehensive geospatial analysis of thousands of square kilometers, our team has concluded that between the second half of June and mid-July, Russian forces relocated many valuable assets away from the Ukrainian border.

After the missile strike on Okhmatdyt, Ukraine's largest children's hospital, Russian propagandists falsely claimed that a Ukrainian air defense system was responsible. A special OSINT investigation for @EuromaidanPress confirms that it was a Russian Kh-101 missile.🧵Thread: 2/ An initial visual examination of the video uploaded by Ukrainian journalist Tsaplienko allows us to identify key characteristics of the missile, despite the limiting angle. These features include a wing position and a prominent rear section.