Former UA officer
Founder of the Frontelligence Insight
To support my work: https://t.co/A9oLjGWIYc
Have insights on Russia? Write to frontel@proton.me
162 subscribers
Oct 6 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com has published a photo of a document with Russian losses over 8 months, from January to September 2025. According to it, total KIA numbers 86,744, roughly 10,843 per month, which is very close to our earlier estimates. Total losses are 281,550 2/ The published document contains a breakdown by units. Our team will work tonight to verify whether the numbers match the Russian documents we have on hand, but at first glance, it appears authentic. Notably, over 33,966 are listed as MIA, so the majority of them are likely KIA
Oct 6 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The Economist:
About 60% of the deep strikes on Russian territory are carried out by Ukrainian Fire Point FP-1 drones, which with a smaller payload can reach targets 1,500km within Russia and have sophisticated software that has proved resistant to EW jamming.
🧵Thread: 2/ Olena Kryzhanivska, an expert on Ukrainian weapons systems, notes that the FP-1s cost only about $55,000 each and are now being churned out at a rate more than 100 a day. Ukraine is also using the heavier and more expensive Lyutyi drone, which has a range of 2,000km
Oct 3 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Russia is resorting to increasingly drastic measures to find recruits. The list has grown: beyond coercing detainees and conscripts, Moscow is now pressuring businesses to supply contract soldiers while further raising enlistment payments. 🧵Thread with all recent updates: 2/ Thanks to recent updates from @CITeam_en and iStories, we’ve learned that In Russia’s Primorsky region, officials told local business leaders they must help recruit men for the front. Employers were instructed to pressure their staff into signing contracts or contribute money
Oct 2 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Since January, 21 of Russia’s 38 major refineries, facilities that process crude into fuels such as gasoline and diesel, have been hit, a new BBC Verify investigation found. The tally of successful attacks is already 48% higher than the total for all of 2024. 🧵Thread: 2/ BBC analysis shows reported attacks hit a record in August, when Ukrainian drones targeted 14 refineries, followed by eight more in September. Some of the strikes reached facilities deep inside Russia.
Sep 30 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Russia is exploiting economic struggles in developing nations, luring thousands of Africans with promises of escaping poverty - only for many to end up KIA or missing. Key findings from Frontelligence Insight’s analysis of unique mercenary records in Africa and the Middle East: 2/ According to available data, Egypt is the leading contributor, with 291 documented cases. While the full roster of mercenaries remains incomplete, Egyptians make up nearly 25% of the more than 1200 records we have manually reviewed.
Sep 28 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Russia’s military rearmament, especially weapon production numbers, reveals much about its future plans. These numbers are usually hidden in classified documents, a problem Frontelligence Insight, with help from insiders, has solved. For the first time, we can share some of them: 2/ Before the release of the documents, spoilers of which an attentive eye may already have found in the image, we ask our followers to click the notify button in the profile so you don’t miss it. Many have reported that after updates, they don't see posts from those they follow
Sep 26 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
It’ll be like the Chechen war - said one mobilized soldier. Even if it ends, our leader will thank and leave. A new one will say: I never promised you anything. Back home they’ll say: We never sent you.
One of many remarks gathered by Verstka from mobilized Russians. 🧵Thread:
2/ Russian media outlet Verstka has interviewed dozens of mobilized. Three years in, most express regret and little desire to continue. “There aren’t many patriots here. Almost everyone just wants to go home,” said another mobilized
Sep 26 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
It’ll be like the Chechen war - said one mobilized soldier. Even if it ends, our leader will thank and leave. A new one will say: I never promised you anything. Back home they’ll say: We never sent you.
One of many remarks gathered by Verstka from mobilized Russians. 🧵Thread: 2/ Russian media outlet Verstka has interviewed dozens of mobilized. Three years in, most express regret and little desire to continue. “There aren’t many patriots here. Almost everyone just wants to go home,” said another mobilized
Sep 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Russia’s government plans to raise the value-added tax from 20% to 22%, breaking Putin’s pledge not to increase taxes before 2030. The budget deficit has already widened to ₽4.2 trillion ($50 billion), or 1.9% of GDP, as revenues decline with falling oil prices, reports the FT:
2/ This is the second direct tax increase since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
For the full year, the finance ministry expects the deficit to reach ₽5.7 trillion, or 2.6% of GDP, Interfax reported, citing a draft budget law not yet published in full.
Sep 20 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine successfully hit two refineries with drone strikes early on September 20. Geolocated videos show both the Novokuybyshevsk and Saratov refineries damaged and on fire. Ukraine has successfully targeted these facilities earlier this year. 🧵Thread: 2/ According to Rosneft, the Saratov Refinery has a designed capacity of 7.0 million tons of oil per year. It processes Urals crude, crude from the Saratov field via pipeline, as well as crude from the Orenburg fields by rail. It produces gasoline, vacuum gas oil, and bitumen
Sep 17 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has published new details about the Russian “Geran-3” UAV. The “U” series model is equipped with a Chinese Telefly JT80 turbojet engine, allowing it to reach speeds of 300–370 km/h and an estimated operational range of up to 1,000 km. 2/ The “Geran-3” reaches its maximum speed of up to 370 km/h mainly in areas covered by Ukrainian air defense and electronic warfare systems, in zones where interceptor UAVs are deployed, and during the terminal phase of flight as it descends toward its target.
Sep 16 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The dynamics of the battlefield have shifted even further in 2025. With manpower shortages and infiltration tactics, the frontline in some areas has become far less defined and certain. That’s one of the reasons I haven’t posted any tactical updates for a while:
2/ It has reached the point where even soldiers on both sides are uncertain about the frontline - at least beyond their own unit’s tactical area. As a result, sources once considered reliable for mappers are no longer as dependable.
Sep 12 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Up to two-thirds (66%) of respondents in Russia believe it is time to move toward peace negotiations, a record high for this indicator. Only 27% say military action should continue, the lowest level. The figures come from the Levada Center, known for its methodological rigor: 2/ Fifty-eight percent of respondents say the war has affected them or their families. Among those “strongly” affected, common issues include the death of relatives or friends, family members participating in combat, injuries/disability, emotional distress, and economic hardship
Sep 11 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Two days after being conscripted into Russia's army, Maxim Suvorov signed a contract. Less than a month later, he fell on the battlefield - one of many casualties of Russia’s new practice of filling contract ranks with conscripts. A detailed case showcasing recruitment problems: 2/ Frontelligence Insight has previously reported on Russia’s struggle to meet recruitment targets with monetary bonuses, pushing the military to seek alternatives, including pressuring conscripts to sign contracts. The recent death of a conscript allowed us to trace his story
Sep 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Reminder: the account that posted a photo said to show Iryna Zarutska, with a BLM poster in the background, drew 18 million views. In May 2025, France’s defense and security secretariat tied this account to Storm-1516, a state-backed Russian disinfo group. But there’s more: 2/ According to a report by VIGINUM, the French agency for countering foreign digital interference and disinformation under the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security, this unit is a Russian information manipulation set (IMS) linked to Russia’s intelligence (GRU)
Sep 9 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A recurring question is whether Russia categorizes AWOL cases as a way to conceal combat deaths in its official reports. The short answer is no. The longer answer is more complicated, and requires looking at how AWOL is treated within the Russian military system. 🧵Short thread: 2/ Most AWOL cases can escalate into actual criminal proceedings if all other measures to bring soldiers back fail. High rates of desertion or absence trigger investigations on record - problems that weigh more heavily on commanders and unit statistics than combat losses do
Sep 8 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
AWOL and desertion cases in the Russian army have doubled and tripled in recent months, with battlefield desertions rising sharply, according to tens of thousands of records reviewed by Frontelligence Insight. 🧵This thread summarizes the key insights drawn from the data: 2/ Before proceeding, we thank the Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com for providing additional documents containing the full list of service members. While the source is trusted, we carried out our own inspection and verification to confirm the list’s authenticity.
Aug 28 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Since July, our team has published 4 major investigations: on foreign mercenaries and Cuban fighters in Russia’s ranks; procurement and targeting pod issues with the Su-57; and China’s role in Shahed UAV production. We also analyzed Russian losses in units and North Korean arms:
2/ We’ve also completed, but not yet published, data on Russian desertions and losses in several major units. Our research on artillery barrels is wrapping up, after which we’ll also release exclusive investigations into Russia’s weapons production
Aug 27 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
So far, Ukraine’s stabilization measures around Pokrovsk look broadly promising. While many speculated that Kyiv might strike elsewhere, Ukrainian forces have instead pushed back Russian troops in an area where Moscow’s leadership had placed its biggest bet. 🧵Thread:
2/ With only days left before the fall season, the chances of Russia taking Pokrovsk by summer’s end are virtually nil. Amid the so-called “peace talks,” the lack of progress risks undermining Russia’s resolve to fight for “years”, as they like to boast
Aug 27 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Drones, ISR, communications, battlefield awareness, electronic warfare, and mobile anti-tank systems: North Korea appears to have taken notes from the battlefields of Kursk. Its latest propaganda video offers clues, Frontelligence Insight finds in its newest analysis. 🧵Thread: 2/ When North Korean forces arrived in Kursk in the latter half of 2024, they entered a war already deep into its “drone phase.” Adapting to this reality required three urgent adjustments: countermeasures, offensive drone tactics, and battlefield surveillance.
Aug 26 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Russian investigative outlet The Insider spoke with numerous volunteers supplying troops with equipment and donations and discovered an eye-opening situation: in recent months, the volunteer movement has plunged into crisis, with rising signs of fatigue and frustration. 🧵Thread: 2/ A significant share of supplies for the Russian army, from uniforms to thermal imagers and drones, has come from volunteers since the start of the full-scale invasion. One of them, Natalia from the Bryansk region, says that people used to donate an average of 500 to 1,000 rubles