As Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Ukraine's Donbas region, concerns about its potential loss are mounting. There is uncertainty about why Pokrovsk is more significant than other recently lost towns. This thread aims to clarify this and other aspects: 2/ Before falling to Russian forces in February 2024, Avdiivka was vital for Ukrainian troops, serving as a fortress, protecting key logistical routes in Donetsk Oblast, and a potential foothold for deoccupying Donetsk. Since 2022, Russia has invested heavily in capturing it

Ukrainian MFA stated that Belarusian armed forces are concentrating a significant number of personnel, weapons, and equipment near Ukraine's northern border under the guise of exercises

🧵It's still early to draw any definitive conclusions, but a few points should be considered: 2/ In February 2024, Frontelligence Insight and Rochan Consulting released an analysis of the Belarusian military's readiness, concluding that its combat units are typically manned at only 30-40% capacity, relying heavily on mobilization, with the rest filled during mobilization

Joe Lonsdale, founder of 8VC and employer of the son of sanctioned Russian oligarch Vadim Moshkovich, has brushed off allegations of Moshkovich's involvement in drone production. For clarity, let's focus on the facts, documents, and records.

🧵Thread: 2/ First, let’s examine the rule issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Industry and Security. It clearly states that Assistagro and Geomiragro are contributing to the development of military-grade drones in Russia.

Source: federalregister.gov/documents/2023…

Geospatial analysis from Frontelligence Insight reveals that Russian forces continue to build a defensive line in the Kursk region, located south and southwest of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov

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🧵Thread 2/ The initial stages of constructing a defensive line near the settlement of Dolgii, roughly 10 kilometers south of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, were visible in satellite imagery on August 14. By August 18, the trenches were in the process of being reinforced.

Russia often touts itself as a multicultural country where ethnic minorities are equal. This narrative is particularly promoted in Africa and Asia for political gain. Yet, the 17-year-old Ksenia Cheponova, an Altai woman took her own life after bullying over her Asian appearance: 2/ In her death note, posted on Telegram, she wrote:

“I don’t understand what my fault was. Was it because I was born with narrow eyes or because my skin is dark? I never felt ashamed of my ethnicity until some people started turning it into a joke"

Around August 16th, a video circulated on Telegram, showing a Ukrainian soldier's severed head on a pole, reportedly filmed by a member of the 155th Brigade. This should be seen not just as an isolated act of cruelty but as part of a larger, systematic approach.

🧵Thread: 2/ Before discussing the issue, let's clarify several points. The video went viral after the notorious Russian unit "Rusich" posted it on their Telegram channel on August 16th. They praised the 155th Brigade, stating that this was an appropriate response to "pigs."

War is a continuation of politics by other means. As the Kursk incursion continues, the military part of this operation is still being written. However, it is fair to say that, regardless of the outcome, this operation has shed light on certain political aspects. 🧵Thread: 2/ The first aspect, which has largely gone unnoticed, is the evident ineffectiveness of the so-called military alliances and treaties between Russia and other countries, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes obligations like NATO's Article 5

The Myth of Endless Manpower: Russian Soldiers’ Average Age Approaches 38 as Trends Persist

🧵Thread by Frontelligence Insight:

1/ Russian gains in Ukraine are often attributed to their superior numbers in resources and manpower, fostering the perception of an endless manpower 2/ Our recent research shows that increasing recruitment challenges in Russia affect not only the quantity but also the quality of recruits. The average age of Russians killed in Ukraine is nearing 38 and rising. This trend could significantly impact the war's course.

A few thoughts on the situation in Kursk 🧵:

1/ I still think this could be a serious mistake given the situation in the Donbas. However, the situation can quickly change, proving me wrong. The stakes are very high, and there is significant potential here. The outcome is unclear 2/ Russian troops on the border, including FSB border troops and conscripts, were enough to stop small incursions but clearly not enough to stop the advance of the combined force that Ukraine assembled for this assault.

Sanctions and Reality: Western Tech's Enduring Role in Russian Arms.

Frontelligence Insight presents a special investigation into how Western components continue to power Russian missile navigation systems that guide Russian missiles to Ukrainian cities.

🧵Thread: 2/ A batch of confidential documents, spanning hundreds of pages and supplied to our team by the @CyberResUa, directed our investigation to a military base in Shaykovka, Kaluga Oblast. This base is home to military unit #33310 or 52nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment

Russia is Relocating Its Valuable Military Assets Deeper into Its Territory. Frontelligence Insight has conducted research and released a special report for subscribers, detailing how the Russian army has moved further critical assets, including bomber jets and helicopters. 🧵: 2/ Based on a comprehensive geospatial analysis of thousands of square kilometers, our team has concluded that between the second half of June and mid-July, Russian forces relocated many valuable assets away from the Ukrainian border.

After the missile strike on Okhmatdyt, Ukraine's largest children's hospital, Russian propagandists falsely claimed that a Ukrainian air defense system was responsible. A special OSINT investigation for @EuromaidanPress confirms that it was a Russian Kh-101 missile.🧵Thread: 2/ An initial visual examination of the video uploaded by Ukrainian journalist Tsaplienko allows us to identify key characteristics of the missile, despite the limiting angle. These features include a wing position and a prominent rear section.

Sanctions enforcement against Russia remains weak, as companies, including those from the West, continue to supply critical manufacturing equipment to sanctioned Russian firms. Frontelligence Insight reveals details of its investigation and provides evidence.

🧵Thread: 2/ The Russian UAV manufacturer "Albatros," based in Alabuga, is led by Aleksei Florov, also a chief designer involved in the localization of Iranian Shahed drones in Alabuga. Both "Albatros" and Aleksei Florov are sanctioned by several countries, including the US.

Summarized update from Frontelligence Insight on frontlines:

1/ The main Russian efforts remain in Donbas, particularly along the Pokrovsk-Chasiv Yar axis, which is currently the most difficult area. Vuhledar and Kupyansk areas are also key areas of focus. 🧵Thread: 2/ So far, Russian forces have failed to capitalize on the Kharkiv oblast incursion and did not achieve any operational successes in Donbas. They made tactical advances in Chasiv Yar, but given the number and higher-than-average quality of units there, progress is slow and costly

Within a decade, hybrid warfare against the West and Ukraine escalated into the largest war in Europe since WWII. To grasp how a demographically and economically smaller Russia achieved this, we need to look at the underlying processes, including escalation management. 🧵Thread 2/ We need to start with the concept known as "reflexive control" - a method to shape an opponent's mindset, steering their behavior towards the initiator's desired outcome. Russia used it to influence the West's mindset, suggesting that any aid could lead to nuclear escalation

In this war, timely aid and permission to strike are playing a key role. Ukraine must not be limited by weapon types or target locations. Delays or restrictions risk missing a critical window of opportunity, prolonging the war.🧵Thread about consequences and missed opportunities: 2/ These images show Russian concentrations of forces, camps, and field repair bases on the border with Ukraine. All these images have two things in common: by 2024, these sites have moved and dispersed, and none were targeted before their deployment to the frontlines

The Frontelligence Insight assesses that Russia is very close to launching the new railroad line between Burne and Malovodne (Donetsk Oblast), likely within weeks or days. The satellite imagery confirms limited train movement

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Thread🧵: 2/ The construction of an 80km railroad in Donetsk Oblast, approximately initiated around June 2023, aimed to establish a direct link between occupied southern Ukraine and the rest of Russia as a partial alternative to the Crimean Bridge.

Investigation by Frontelligence Insight reveals that since 2022, despite sanctions, Russian cruise missile manufacturer Raduga has not only continued to operate but also expanded production, thanks to imported Western and Chinese machinery

🧵Thread (Please Like and Share first): 2/ "Raduga" is a design bureau located in Dubna, Moscow Oblast, specializing in the production of missile systems, which are now used against Ukraine. This includes various modifications of the Kh-55, Kh-59, and Kh-101 missiles, as well as other missile types and models.

Donbas Area Situation Report: May 21-22

The frontline remains dynamic despite appearing static. Ukrainian forces reinforced Kharkiv to halt the Russian advance. The situation is still risky considering the thinned defenses. 🧵Thread

Before proceeding, please like and share 2/ Chasiv Yar

Russia identified weak points in the Kanal quarter, deploying infantry deep but failed to establish a foothold, and assaulting forces were eliminated by Ukrainian forces. Another attempt can be more successful, as Russians have additional forces available.

I am not an authorized person or official representative to make statements on behalf of the military or the entire country, but I want to share the concerns expressed by many on the frontlines, from privates to colonels. They often ask me: where is the promised aid?

🧵Thread: 2/ Considering that I talk to many analysts and experts worldwide, many of my friends and acquaintances hope I can provide them with comprehensive knowledge and answers in private. However, the truth is, I don't have an answer.

Yesterday, The Economist published an article stating that, according to military plans shared with them, Russian forces aimed to get within artillery range of Kharkiv within 72 hours and were probing to see if they could partially encircle the city. Here is why I am skeptical: 2/ First and foremost, if you examine the composition of forces Russia has used in this direction, the core of the advance consisted of motor rifle regiments with limited vehicle presence. These units were advancing in the form of dispersed small tactical groups on foot mostly