So far, Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated strategic goals in this war:
Demilitarization – failed.
Regime change in Kyiv – failed.
Full control over Donbas – failed.
Preventing NATO enlargement – failed.
🧵Short thread:
2/ Demilitarization of Ukraine. The Ukrainian military is now larger, better armed, and far more experienced than before the war. It is more technologically advanced and capable than ever before.
3/ Russia failed to remove Zelenskyy or his government. Kyiv remains fully under Ukrainian control. The chances of a pro-Russian party winning the next election are slim to none
4/ Full control of Donbas - failed. Large cities like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk remain under Ukrainian control. While Russia has nearly fully occupied Luhansk oblast, it doesn't control the Donetsk oblast.
5/ Prevent NATO expansion – failed, as Finland and Sweden joined NATO in 2023.
6/ Russia has made some gains: capturing the port cities of Mariupol and Berdiansk, establishing a land corridor to Crimea, and seizing Luhansk oblast almost entirely. However, the return on these gains is poor, given the economic, financial, and demographic costs incurred
7/ Russia has lost influence in Syria and the South Caucasus, as it was unable to respond effectively due to resources tied up in Ukraine. In this context, demanding that Ukraine hand over unoccupied territories effectively hands Russia a strategic objective for free
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