Thread by @P_Kallioniemi

In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explain the Alaska Fiasco and how it marks the peak of Trump’s two-year betrayal of Ukraine. What was sold as “peace talks” turned into a spectacle of weakness, humiliation, empty promises, and photo-ops that handed Putin exactly what he wanted.

1/24

Let’s start with the obvious: Trump desperately wants the gold medal of the Nobel Peace Prize, mainly because Obama got one. That’s why he’s now LARPing as a “peace maker” in every conflict: Israel-Gaza, Azerbaijan-Armenia, India-Pakistan, and of course Ukraine-Russia.

2/24

Another theory is that Putin holds kompromat — compromising material such as videos or documents — that would put Trump in an extremely bad light. Some have suggested it could be tied to the Epstein files or Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election.

3/24

Former KGB chief of Kazakhstan Alnur Mussayev even claimed that Trump was recruited by the Soviet Union in 1987 under the codename “Krasnov.” No solid evidence has ever surfaced, but Trump’s actions do look odd given Russia’s relatively limited global influence and power.

4/24

The setup for the Alaska Summit was disastrous from the start. Trump’s favorite real estate agent, Steven Witkoff, went to Moscow with no expertise and not even a proper translator, only to get played again by Kremlin spies who shifted their demands right after the meeting.

5/24

Even the location of the Summit favored Russia, as the state was once part of Russia, sold to the US by a previous Tsar. Russians have been pushing the idea that Alaska should return under Moscow’s rule: welcoming Putin there handed the Kremlin yet another symbolic victory.

6/24

Despite this, some were optimistic, as Trump had promised Ukraine would get all the help needed to defend its civilians & warned there would be “very severe consequences” if Putin refused a ceasefire. Of course, this was a lie, just like the “I’ll end the war in 24 hours”…

7/24

…and the endless “two-week deadlines” he kept giving Putin for months. By now it’s obvious: Trump has no intention of punishing Russia or his dear Putin for their aggression against Ukraine. Russia got exactly what it wanted from the Summit: photo-ops of Putin with Trump…

8/24

…and a starring role on the world stage. But Russia got even more: US soldiers kneeling in front of the Russian plane, rolling out a red carpet for Putin, photos of Putin looking smug while Trump looked tired and defeated, and a press conference where Putin stole the show…
9/24

… as Trump refused to take a single question. The whole fiasco made the US look weak, and even Fox News, Trump’s favorite media outlet, admitted that Putin came to Alaska and “steamrolled” him. After the Summit, Trump went golfing and left Rubio to spin the fiasco.

10/24

Rubio claimed there would be no sanctions on Russia, arguing they’d “interfere” with peace talks and that Putin would just keep the war going if punished. Rubio refused to name any concessions Russia should make, claiming it would “collapse the negotiations.”

11/24

Less than 24 hours later, Trump himself named two, but for Ukraine: no NATO membership, and surrendering Crimea, as he’s been hinting at for two years.

Art of the Deal, or something.

But as always with Trump, one must look at his actions rather than at his words.

12/24

So far, he’s:
– Disbanded US sanctions enforcement
- Cut tracking of kidnapped children
– Blocked aid approved by Congress
– Opposed oil price cap at G7
- Paused intelligence sharing to Ukraine
- Made the US and allies vote against a UN resolution condemning the aggression

13/24

Ironically, the US in general has conversely shown strong support for Ukraine: 83 (out of 100) Senators backed a secondary sanctions bill targeting Russia’s energy sector, demonstrating rare bipartisan unity outside of Trump’s MAGA, and polls show support for Ukraine.

14/24

Trump’s cabinet is packed with vatniks who seem to despise Ukraine and cozy up to Russia: people like JD Vance, Tulsi, and RFK Jr. have refused to condemn the invasion. US foreign policy is hostage to Russia apologists who’d rather treat a brutal empire as ally than enemy.

15/24

And Trump himself can’t wait to start doing business with Russia again. In Alaska, Putin fed him the same old bullshit about the “stolen” 2020 election and downplayed Moscow’s role in 2016, when Trump first won office with a big helping hand from the Kremlin.

16/24

Today, the American president meets Zelenskyy, no red carpet. Several EU leaders will join, but Trump has already said he’ll meet Zelenskyy alone first. It remains to be seen whether the orange man will disrespect him the same way he did in their last White House meeting.

17/24

The real estate magnate Witkoff, meanwhile, suggested that Putin agreed to enact a law stating that Russia would not “go after any other European countries”. In Putin’s Russia, this means nothing and they actually already have such a law in place:

18/24

While Trump and European leaders are scrambling to come up with some security guarantees for Ukraine, Russia’s military production is intensifying at an incredible pace, out-producing NATO’s manifold. Russia doesn’t look like a country preparing for peace…

19/24

And we’ve already seen that security assurances or even guarantees mean absolutely nothing: in 1994 the UK, the US, Ukraine and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum & in 2004 Putin confirmed Ukraine’s borders and sovereignty, including Crimea.

All meaningless.

20/24

Trump has even challenged NATO’s Article 5, the cornerstone of the alliance. He’s said he would let Russia “do whatever the hell they want” to allies who don’t spend enough on defense — an open invitation for Putin to test the West’s unity.

21/24

Putin’s goal hasn’t changed and he’s not hiding it: turn Ukraine into a Russian puppet state like Belarus. For him, “the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the century” so of course he wants former Soviet states under his control again.

22/24

The Russians were eagerly waiting for Trump’s presidency to hand them the parts of Ukraine they couldn’t seize after three years of fierce fighting. Now Trump wants to give Putin the whole Donbas — a region that would take Russia years to conquer by conventional means.

23/24

So, what will happen? Trump’s so-called “peace plan” is really just Putin’s wish list. The terms will be unbearable for Ukraine, Zelenskyy will refuse, Trump will blame him, the US will sell weapons through NATO, and Trump will quietly start lifting sanctions on Russia.

24/24

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