Thread by @karimfranceschi

Welcome to the theater of the absurd: on one stage, Trump crowns an al-Qaeda figure as Syria’s “new face of governance.” On the next, they insist it’s all about counterterrorism.

Let’s pull back the curtain on the latest OIR report. From someone who’s worn an SDF patch. 🧵

2/9 The reports begins with the OIR objectives in Syria:
☑️ Prevent Syria from being used as a base for ISIS, Iran, or other terrorist groups;
☑️ Complete and verifiable destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons program;
☑️ Determine the fate of U.S. citizens missing in Syria.

3/9 Literally on the next line, Trump crowns Jolani in Riyadh. And offers a deal...

Normalization & sanctions relief, in exchange the Syrian govt
☑️ joins the Abraham Accords
☑️ kicks out foreign fighters & Palestinians
☑️ fights ISIS
☑️ takes over ISIS prisons from the SDF

4/9 Tom Barrack is appointed Envoy to Syria, who disregards Trump's conditions, of which not single one is met, the normalization goes ahead anyway, By May 29 the US flag flies again in Damascus. What they call diplomacy on meth.

5/9 – Security Environment (pt.1)
The ink on Trump’s deal isn’t dry before the coast burns. March–April: massacres in Alawite villages shatter the “new Syria” script. According to OIR, due to the "poor command and control over subordinate forces responsible for the atrocities."

6/9 – Security Environment (pt.2)
So the new ministry of defense is cool right? Not really, since according to the report some al-Qaeda members might have integrated in the government, and some other al-Qaeda groups continue to operate with autonomy under the guise of HTS.

7/9 – Security Environment (pt.3)
Last but not least, the foreign fighters, Trump as precondition for normalization asked for those elements to be kicked out. So naturally President al-Sharaa decided to give them citizenship, and promoted them to prestigious military posts.

8/9 – Security Environment (pt.4)
Meanwhile sanctions lifted, HTS delisted as terror org, normalization on full throttle—never mind the 10,000 dead since the takeover. OIR applauds The Syrian government rejection of Assad's chemical program. Sounds neat, right? Not so fast...

END – Despite the praise, Syria is still non-compliant. OPCW visits found only papers, no weapons. So OIR applauds a gov’t led by a former al-Qaeda chief—for promises, not actions. Where did the stockpiles go? USCENTCOM has the solution: "once relations are re-established..."