NEW at NYT: The Democratic Party is facing a voter registration crisis in red, blue and battleground states alike — losing ground to the GOP everywhere.
My deep dive into the numbers and what it reveals about the party's brand.
Thread —>
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
30 states plus D.C. allow for partisan registration.
Between 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost 2.1 million voters in those states. GOP gained 2.4 million.
But those topline figures are just the start... nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
By percentage, Democrats went from nearly an 11-point edge over GOP in 2020 to just over a 6-point edge in 2024.
Along the way, some states have flipped to GOP registration edge entirely.
Florida, of course.
But more big ones are likely coming...
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
In Pennsylvania, the quintessential battleground, Democrats had registration advantage of 517,310 among active voters in November 2020.
As of this summer: Only 53,303 voters.
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
In North Carolina, Republicans erased roughly 95 percent of the registration advantage that Democrats held in the fall of 2020 by this summer.
The Dem edge is less than 17,000 — down from nearly 400,000 in 2020.
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
Some have dismissed registration as a lagging indicator in the past.
But in 2024 it proved prescient: Democratic weakness was concentrated where Trump was strongest, among men and younger voters.
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
There are few better measurement's of a party's brand than who actively chooses to identify (and register) with it.
And fewer and fewer voters are choosing to become Democrats.
Check out this graphic of the trendline for new registrants since 2018.
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
We also have some takeaways on the findings.
This is perhaps the most stark one.
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
The NYT conducted this analysis using voter registration data from L2, a nonpartisan firm, and compared to state-level records across the country to show scope of decline.
Had the privilege of getting to work with data wizard @jonahesmith.
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
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