NEW: The NRSC sent a fundraising email today signed by Herschel Walker in which it is actually keeping 99% of what’s raised, per fine print.

Walker gets a dime for every ten dollar donation. Every political strategist will say that nothing is more valuable than candidate funds, which is what makes this split — from the party committee — particularly notable.

NEW: How the most improbable of midterms were won and lost.

Democrats defied gravity and political history. GOP squandered what McCarthy told me he saw as a "hinge" election and brewing "perfect storm."

Here is a taste of one scene to get you started —>
nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/… How bad was Joe Biden’s approval rating? An October poll of *Delaware* had him 11 points underwater in his home state.

Yet Democrats over-performed. Here is a key metric: Democrats carried those who “somewhat disapproved” of Biden, in a break from past: nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/…

NEW: How the NRSC raised a record $181.5 million entering August — yet spent 95% of it.

My deep dive on Rick Scott’s big bet on digital gone bad w/ internal docs, new $$$ ties revealed and a texting scheme so deceptive that WinRed cracked down.

MORE —>
nytimes.com/2022/09/03/us/… Let’s start with some numbers. The NRSC has spent $172.8 million as of 7/31 — tens of millions more than 2020 by this time even as it spent *less* on candidate ads.

Top Rs are asking: Where did the money go?
nytimes.com/2022/09/03/us/…

NEWS: The NRSC is canceling some fall ad reservations in PA, AZ and WI — total so far north of $10 million — in a sign of financial troubles.

Cuts include more than $5 million just from the Philly market.

FIRST CUT —> nytimes.com/2022/08/15/us/… The NRSC ad reservations are a moving target as of midday Monday.

BUT so far *all* reservations in Phoenix and Tucson cut after 9/30, per two media buying sources.

nytimes.com/2022/08/15/us/…

THREAD: Over the weekend, I wrote a story with @katieglueck about how Democrats are leaning into abortion ads — all across America.

Please read the story here: nytimes.com/2022/08/14/us/…. But I also thought it might be helpful to see some of these ads in one place.

So a thread... In Michigan, as in many states, the opening ad hitting the GOP nominee for governor, Tudor Dixon, focused on her opposition to exceptions for rape and incest.

It began almost immediately after the primary.

NEW: The Senate battlegrounds are all but set after this week's primaries.

And the defining question of the campaign is how long Democrats in crucial races can continue to outpace Joe Biden’s unpopularity — and by how much.

W/ @maggieNYT:
nytimes.com/2022/08/06/us/… Despite Biden's woeful numbers, Democrats in most of key races are competitive or ahead, per polling.

But can that last if Biden languishes in 30s?

“Gravity is going to apply at some point,” says @robertblizzard. nytimes.com/2022/08/06/us/…

The Thomas concurring opinion, starting on page. 117, wants to reconsider "Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell."
supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf… For the Republicans for years who have named Thomas as an ideal justice, there are now fresh questions about their stances on issues like contraception.

https://twitter.com/IAmAmnaNawaz/status/1540342086616203268

THREAD: I’ve wanted to write this story for a while. It is one of those campaign schemes that insiders know well (some privately talk about drafting hundreds (!) of such boxes).

But the public doesn’t know or understand at all what is happening.

1/X
nytimes.com/2022/05/16/us/…

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1526205898976264199

Stepping back, the current campaign regime, at its core, is designed to limit how indebted politicians feel to their biggest donors and special interests.

That, after all, is what donation limits are about.

2/X
nytimes.com/2022/05/16/us/…

NEW: Trump kicking Mo Brooks to the curb highlights just how risky the coming primary season is, as his own team has warned the expansive effort to install loyalists nationwide could backfire on his brand.

W/ @jmartNYT: nytimes.com/2022/03/25/us/… What's remarkable is that in state after state, Trump is at odds with the top elected Republican:

— GA
— AZ
— NE
— MD
— ID

But Trump doesn't have a real infrastructure in those places. It's press statements and rallies.
nytimes.com/2022/03/25/us/…

I have gotten some questions about the painting in Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s campaign office so here it is, including close ups (seated portrait is by NYT photog Annie Mulligan) nytimes.com/2022/02/27/us/… Please do read the story, which is about, in part, how because of new district lines, Dan Crenshaw now only faces a political threat from the right (and the self-styled Trump wing of the party) —> nytimes.com/2022/02/27/us/…

NEW: One of the biggest consequences of 2022 redistricting is the erasure of competitive districts.

How that's playing out in the Houston suburbs, and for @DanCrenshawTX, shows the power of lopsided lines to reshape our politics.
nytimes.com/2022/02/27/us/… Texas is one of the *most extreme examples* of wiping competitive seats off the map.

— In 2020, 10 House Rs won in seats Trump won by less than 5 points or lost.

— In 2022, there are now 0 in such seats.
nytimes.com/2022/02/27/us/…

As Russia invades Ukraine, Donald Trump is calling into Fox News to swipe at the "stupidity" of the Biden administration. And Laura Ingraham apologizes to Trump for cutting him off as she pivots to go to the UN, where Ukraine is speaking.

New: In Mar-a-Lago speech at super PAC fundraiser, Trump waded into foreign policy and said of adversaries: “Now they laugh at us.”

“That’s why you have Ukraine. That’s why you’re going to have China. Taiwan is next and you’re going to see the same kind of thing.” Trump waded back into the Putin is "smart" territory:

"I mean he’s taking over a country for $2 worth of sanctions, I’d say that’s pretty smart."

He said of Ukraine: “great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking right in. This would have never happened.”

NEW: A dive into the profit-seeking post-presidency of Donald J. Trump who is busily working to convert his small contributors into consumers of all things Trump. With @EricLiptonNYT —>
nytimes.com/2022/02/12/us/… Among Trump's activities:
— Spending PAC funds at Trump properties
— 7-figure advance for picture book
— O'Reilly tour
— Renting 2020 campaign list to sell Trump merch via LLC
— Plus: An unusual Xmas party in Naples
nytimes.com/2022/02/12/us/…

NEW from Pence: "President Trump is wrong"

"I heard this week that President Trump said I had the right to overturn the election. President Trump is wrong. I had no right to overturn the election. The presidency belongs to the American people, and the American people alone." MORE from Pence: "Frankly there is almost no idea more un-American than the notion that any one person could choose the American president."

A series of recent Trump comments and disclosures — including his discussing federal agencies seizing voting machines — have stripped away any pretense that 1/6 was anything but the culmination of his single-minded pursuit of retaining power.

Story —>
nytimes.com/2022/02/01/us/… Story builds off some of the recent reporting of my colleagues @alanfeuer, @lukebroadwater, @maggieNYT and @nytmike on just how determined Trump was to stop the certification in 2020 nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/…

Starting a #campaignfinance thread for the 1/31 filings today... The Alabama Patriots PAC, which is spending for Mike Durant, received $1 million in December from America's Promise, which in turn got: $500k from Jeffrey Chambers (TA Associates), $250k John Chambers (Cisco), $500k Kevin Taweel (Asirion) and others

NEW: Trump’s standing atop the GOP has been virtually untouchable for years now. But his grip on party is facing new strains.

My dive on polls, vaccine politics and endorsement blowback exposing signs of vulnerability —>
nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/… A growing share of GOPers are IDing with party first, and Trump second, including in his usual base.

In Oct. 2020, 62% of non-college white Republicans ID’d themselves as Trump-first Republicans. That figure was down to 36% this month, in NBC poll.
nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/…

NEW: After years of decrying "dark money," Democrats embraced such spending with fresh zeal in 2020 — outpacing Republicans in secret money by hundreds of millions of dollars.

An original analysis w/ @kenvogel for the NYT: nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/… The topline findings: 15 of the most politically active nonprofits generally aligned with Democrats spent $1.5 billion+ in 2020 — compared to $900 million from s comparable list of 15 groups aligned with Rs.
nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/…

NEW: The FEC's general counsel recommended *in 2019* finding that 2016 Trump campaign and RNC violated excessive contribution rules via state-party pass-through scheme.

This is, I think, the first time this FEC document has come to light (it is now 2022!) fec.gov/files/legal/mu… Using state parties as pass-throughs to avoid contribution limits is a bipartisan affair. Both the Trump campaign and Biden campaign did versions of this in 2020.

But this shows professional staff at FEC think it's a no-no even if commission hasn't cracked down.

BREAKING: NH Gov. Chris Sununu is NOT running for Senate in 2022.

He had been the Republican Party's top recruit. Says governor is place where can be "most impactful," calls it a 24/7 job and the Senate is slower.

NRSC Chair Rick Scott and others had pressed hard for him to run.

Sununu had led Sen. Hassan (D-NH) in some early polling.