Shaun Pinner Profile picture
🇬🇧 Former British Soldier & Ukrainian Marine, author of Live.Fight.Survive, Public Speaker, Ambassador and Board Member at Prevail Humanitarian Aid

Aug 24, 9 tweets

1/7 The reality is simple, Russia has failed:

Russia will not stop this war until it accepts it’s losing. I’d argue Putin already is, and for some time, but he won’t admit it. Until pressure is applied, Ukraine will need to keep pushing drones deep into Russia, hitting strategic targets and crippling the war machine:

Russia’s major losses (2022–2025)
•❌ Over 1 million casualties (killed & wounded combined).
•❌ 55% of territory lost from what was initially captured in 2022.
•❌ 1/3 of Russia’s tactical bomber fleet destroyed.
•❌ Black Sea dominance broken, fleet ships sunk, Sevastopol and Crimea unsafe.
•❌ 13.5% of oil refining capacity knocked out by Ukrainian drones (≈44M tons/year offline).
•❌ Economy strained — sanctions, export revenue collapse, ruble instability.
•❌ Elite units attrited — VDV, Marines, Wagner remnants all heavily degraded.
•❌ International isolation — reliant on Iran, North Korea, and China’s limited support.

2/7 Failed, Failed & Failed:

In more than over 3 years fighting, Putin has FAILED to achieve a single principle objective of its invasion and is in a considerably worse situation now, than prior to February 2022:

•❌ Topple Kyiv & Zelensky
•❌ Seize all of Donetsk & Luhansk
•❌ Cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea
•❌ Stop NATO expansion
•❌ Weaken the West’s resolve

3/7 Why Putin can’t end the war:

Putin can’t end the war because his entire survival depends on it. If he admits defeat, he exposes himself to internal collapse, facing humiliation, elite betrayal, and the very real risk of a palace coup. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has no off-ramp for him: he either “wins,” or he falls.

4/7 Trump’s so-called “peace plan”:

It isn’t peace, it’s stalling. He brags about ending the war in 24 hours, but what he’s really done is hand Putin time to regroup, rearm, and keep striking Ukraine.

No new sanctions.
No pressure on Moscow.
No accountability for war crimes or deported children.

Just endless empty talk.

5/7 Trump has emboldened Putin and given legitimacy to his war crimes:

Since his inauguration, rocket attacks across Ukraine have increased. Stalling has consequences. Every week wasted without action means more:

• Rockets on our cities
• Drones on our power stations
• Civilians killed in their homes

The U.S. under Trump is prolonging the war.

6/7 Trump’s peace = Putin’s war. (Two more weeks…):

Sanctions work. Weapons work. Unity works. But none of these exist under Trump’s approach. Instead, he parrots Kremlin talking points and stalls decisions that could shorten the war.

No sanctions. No pressure. No accountability. Just stalling, giving Russia time, and the result is more rockets on Ukraine, not fewer.

Peace only comes when Russia loses. Anything else prolongs the killing.

And now, Putin, the genocidal dictator, is being clapped onto U.S. soil.

7/7 Trump isn’t bringing peace, essentially he’s handing Russia a victory:

Every delay, every stalled sanction, every empty promise gives Putin exactly what he needs, time, legitimacy, and space to keep killing.

If this continues, history won’t remember Trump as a peacemaker, but as the man who prolonged the war and helped Russia claim what it could never win on the battlefield.

Trump is not just doing what Biden did, he has also stopped support for Ukraine completely.

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