Shaun Pinner Profile picture
Aug 24, 2025 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/7 The reality is simple, Russia has failed:

Russia will not stop this war until it accepts it’s losing. I’d argue Putin already is, and for some time, but he won’t admit it. Until pressure is applied, Ukraine will need to keep pushing drones deep into Russia, hitting strategic targets and crippling the war machine:

Russia’s major losses (2022–2025)
•❌ Over 1 million casualties (killed & wounded combined).
•❌ 55% of territory lost from what was initially captured in 2022.
•❌ 1/3 of Russia’s tactical bomber fleet destroyed.
•❌ Black Sea dominance broken, fleet ships sunk, Sevastopol and Crimea unsafe.
•❌ 13.5% of oil refining capacity knocked out by Ukrainian drones (≈44M tons/year offline).
•❌ Economy strained — sanctions, export revenue collapse, ruble instability.
•❌ Elite units attrited — VDV, Marines, Wagner remnants all heavily degraded.
•❌ International isolation — reliant on Iran, North Korea, and China’s limited support.Image
2/7 Failed, Failed & Failed:

In more than over 3 years fighting, Putin has FAILED to achieve a single principle objective of its invasion and is in a considerably worse situation now, than prior to February 2022:

•❌ Topple Kyiv & Zelensky
•❌ Seize all of Donetsk & Luhansk
•❌ Cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea
•❌ Stop NATO expansion
•❌ Weaken the West’s resolveImage
3/7 Why Putin can’t end the war:

Putin can’t end the war because his entire survival depends on it. If he admits defeat, he exposes himself to internal collapse, facing humiliation, elite betrayal, and the very real risk of a palace coup. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has no off-ramp for him: he either “wins,” or he falls.Image
4/7 Trump’s so-called “peace plan”:

It isn’t peace, it’s stalling. He brags about ending the war in 24 hours, but what he’s really done is hand Putin time to regroup, rearm, and keep striking Ukraine.

No new sanctions.
No pressure on Moscow.
No accountability for war crimes or deported children.

Just endless empty talk.Image
5/7 Trump has emboldened Putin and given legitimacy to his war crimes:

Since his inauguration, rocket attacks across Ukraine have increased. Stalling has consequences. Every week wasted without action means more:

• Rockets on our cities
• Drones on our power stations
• Civilians killed in their homes

The U.S. under Trump is prolonging the war.Image
6/7 Trump’s peace = Putin’s war. (Two more weeks…):

Sanctions work. Weapons work. Unity works. But none of these exist under Trump’s approach. Instead, he parrots Kremlin talking points and stalls decisions that could shorten the war.

No sanctions. No pressure. No accountability. Just stalling, giving Russia time, and the result is more rockets on Ukraine, not fewer.

Peace only comes when Russia loses. Anything else prolongs the killing.

And now, Putin, the genocidal dictator, is being clapped onto U.S. soil.
7/7 Trump isn’t bringing peace, essentially he’s handing Russia a victory:

Every delay, every stalled sanction, every empty promise gives Putin exactly what he needs, time, legitimacy, and space to keep killing.

If this continues, history won’t remember Trump as a peacemaker, but as the man who prolonged the war and helped Russia claim what it could never win on the battlefield.Image
Trump is not just doing what Biden did, he has also stopped support for Ukraine completely. Image

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More from @olddog100ua

Dec 21, 2025
1/6 THIS IS STRATEGIC NONSENSE:

This claim by Tulsi Gabbard is fundamentally wrong.
Russia doesn’t have the capability to “conquer and occupy Europe” or to pose a serious threat. That’s a strawman, not a military assessment.
2/6 SALAMI SLICING & THE EASTERN FLANK

Modern Russian strategy is about coercion, destabilisation, intimidation, and salami-slicing, to put it bluntly and all backed by nuclear threats, not Napoleonic marches to Lisbon.
Denial of sovereignty is enough.
ft.com/content/78c901…Image
3/6 UKRAINE 🇺🇦

Ukraine itself disproves the claim.
Russia occupies Crimea and parts of four Ukrainian regions right now, with forced deportations, filtration, and Russification. That is occupation, even without total control. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 12, 2025
🧵1/6 Putin’s Winter Obsession:

Every year like clockwork, Putin launches missiles at Ukraine’s energy grid. The shift from striking training grounds and infrastructure to energy facilities has become the norm.

Every year, it fails, after he spends billions and billions trying to freeze Ukrainians through the winter.

He’s fighting a 21st-century nation with 20th-century tactics, and proving only one thing: he’s run out of ideas.Image
2/6 The Generator Economy:

In 2022, he tried to freeze Ukraine into submission. Instead, Ukrainians powered up.
Generators, EcoFlows, solar panels, power banks, a new black-market of resilience was born. Putin’s campaign created what it tried to kill, ‘independence.’ Image
3/6 The Engineers Became Soldiers:

By 2023, Ukraine had turned repairs into rapid operations.
Substations rebuilt overnight, crews working under fire.
While Russia wasted billions in missiles, Ukraine’s grid got faster, smarter, tougher. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 5, 2025
1️⃣ The Harsh Truth:

Ukraine will save Ukraine.
Not America. Not Europe.
Every trench dug, every drone launched, every act of defiance is Ukrainians refusing extinction while the world debates “fatigue.” Image
2️⃣ The U.S. Vacuum:

Under Trump, Ukraine faces abandonment.
He’s halted direct aid, failed in his peace negotiations and not placed any additional pressure on Putin, insisting weapons be sold to NATO, not given to Kyiv. 🇺🇸➡️🇪🇺➡️🇺🇦

Polls show only 34% approve of his Ukraine stance, while 57% disapprove.
Isolationism doesn’t make America safer, it strengthens dictators.
Putin fears Ukrainian resistance, not NATO speeches.Image
3️⃣ Europe’s Dilemma:
Europe now stares down the very threat it once outsourced to Washington.
Putin’s drones have crossed into Poland, Romania, Estonia, NATO’s airspace.
The war has already spilled over;

Europe can’t fence-sit any longer. Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 30, 2025
1/4 Hegseth’s Ineptitude Continues….

Hegseth is wrong on every level. The Geneva Conventions aren’t “stupid rules”, they’re the line that separates soldiers from the terrorists like who tortured me and many others in Mariupol.

Because they exist, I can chase Russia & Putin through the courts for war crimes. Without them, there’s no justice, just barbarism.
2/4 Why we need rules

I’ve lived this. I fought in Mariupol, was captured, tortured, and sentenced to death in a sham trial. Russia denied me POW status. That’s what happens when you abandon the rules, human beings reduced to pawns, stripped of dignity & rights. Image
3/4 Trumps Administration wan’t Immunity, from what?

The Geneva Conventions were created after WWII for a reason: to stop atrocities. They protect civilians, prisoners, and even soldiers on the battlefield. Without them, war descends into pure savagery. Ukraine follows them. That’s why I was eventually exchanged and why I can pursue justice through UK & Ukrainian courts today. Every Russian war crime we document, torture, deportations, executions, only stands in court because the law exists.Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 13, 2025
🚨 THREAD: Zapad 2025, Russian drones & NATO’s red line 🚨
Russia’s war games + drone incursions aren’t “accidents.” They’re stress tests on NATO. Trump downplays, Poland warns, and Article 5 looms closer. 🧵👇 #Ukraine #NATO #Zapad2025

1/6 WAR GAMES WITH TEETH

Russia’s Zapad 2025 drills aren’t routine.
They simulate nuclear use, “crushing the enemy,” & securing the Union State (Russia+Belarus).
All staged right on NATO’s borders.
Image
2/ DRONES OVER POLAND
⚠️ 19–23 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace from Belarus.
✈️ Airports in Warsaw, Lublin & Rzeszów shut down within 300 km of the border.
🇵🇱 Jets scrambled. Warsaw invoked Article 4.
This wasn’t an accident. It was a probe.
3/ AMBIGUITY IS A WEAPON

🇵🇱 PM Tusk: deliberate.
🇷🇺 Russia: denies responsibility.
🇺🇸 Trump: “could have been a mistake.”
That’s the fog Moscow thrives on, testing unity, sowing doubt, splitting allies. Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 6, 2025
🚨 Why Igor Girkin’s prison letters matter
One of Putin’s own warlords is openly declaring Russia’s war in Ukraine a failure. Who is Girkin, what does he say, and why will he probably die in prison? Let’s break it down 🧵

1/6 Who is Igor Girkin?

🇷🇺 Girkin (aka Strelkov) isn’t just another prisoner. He’s a former FSB officer, one of the architects of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, commander of Donbas “separatists” (word used loosely), and tied to the MH17 shoot-down that killed 298 civilians.Image
Image
2/6 Why his words matter

From prison, Girkin writes that Russia’s “SMO” has failed. Moscow can’t defeat Ukraine, can’t hold Kherson or Zaporizhzhia, and faces either capitulation or total war. That’s open defiance of Kremlin propaganda. Image
3/6 Nationalist, Not a liberal critic.

Girkin is no opposition democrat. He’s a hardline nationalist who once led the war to carve up Ukraine. When he says the war is doomed, it pierces straight through the Kremlin’s lies, pointing out Putin is failing. Image
Read 7 tweets

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