Biggest Housing Bubble Ever 🫡
I love Melody because, unlike the Anti Central Bank Men, she does debate me.
But her forecast is now off by 29% the last 3 years on prices, which oddly enough was the housing bubble crash in cumulative terms 😇
Forecast
5% decline in 2023
5% decline in 2024
9%-12% decline in 2025
What happened
2023 prices 6%
2024 princes 4%
2025, assuming even a flat year
You all can do the math
History of home prices going back to 1942
4,000,000 active listings in 2007, currently 1.55 million
4 years of major credit stress build up before the 2008 recession started, not so much today
Key: this never gets discussed by anyone. Downpayment data was falling from 2001-2008 now currently at 21st century highs
Stressed portfolio lending, which caused significant issues in the past, is not occurring today due to QM laws.
Post-2010 homeowners just built different
Tombstone chart on the Chart Daddy’s grave
We had a 2025 discussion between her and I not long ago too
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